287
FXUS64 KHGX 151807
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1207 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINATE OVER THE REGION TODAY PROVIDING US
WITH SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES, SUNNY SKIES, AND DRY CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID 70S FOR MOST
OF THE REGION (PINEY WOODS WILL BE A TAD COOLER IN THE LOW 70S,
AND AREAS NEAR MATAGORDA BAY WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE HIGH
70S). THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST THIS
EVENING CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST AND THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION. AGAIN THE PINEY WOODS WILL BE OUR COOLEST AREA WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S, AND THE COAST WILL STAYING WARMER - ONLY GETTING
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON SATURDAY AS THE THE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW PERSISTS AT THE SURFACE AND WE GET SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION. THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO PUMP INCREASED
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA, SO EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE DAY AS WELL. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY EVENING AND
MAY MOVE ONTO THE COAST BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A 10
TO 15 DEGREE TEMPERATURE BUMP SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
FOWLER
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
SUNDAY WILL BE HUMID, CLOUDY, AND FAIRLY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
70S OVER THE PINEY WOODS REGION AND IN THE LOW 80S OVER THE REST
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS, WHICH IS ROUGHLY 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AREAWIDE. THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE DAY,
AND WITH A DEVELOPING LLJ OF ABOUT 30 KTS MOVING OVERHEAD,
CONDITIONS WILL BE BREEZY, AND AT TIMES, GUSTY. QUICK PASSING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY, IN PARTICULAR OVER AREAS WEST OF I-45.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY NIGHT WONT BRING ANY KIND OF
RELIEF, WITH LOWS ROUGHLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S OVER THE
BRAZOS VALLEY AND THE LOW TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE.
LUCKILY, A MID LEVEL TROUGH (OR CLOSED LOW) WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD FROM WEST TEXAS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MONDAY
MORNING AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
BRAZOS VALLEY REGION. AHEAD AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY, WE ARE
EXPECTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME LOCATIONS CAN SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH THE BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO OUR COASTAL LOCATIONS BY THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL
HELP MINIMIZE THE FLOOD IMPACTS WE MAY HAVE DURING THE DAY.
REGARDLESS, SOME PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE CAN OCCUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING DOWN MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS REACHING
THE LOW 50S OVER THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND PINEY WOODS REGION, THE
MID 50S TO LOW 60S OVER THE REST OF THE INLAND PORTIONS, AND THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
ONLY LOWER A FEW DEGREES, RANGING MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S
AREAWIDE. HOWEVER, A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY AND COULD EITHER BRING
US A REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND/OR STRONGER CAA. HOPEFULLY, WE CAN
GET EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. AT THIS TIME, THE FORECAST CARRIES HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MOST
OF OUR INLAND PORTIONS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE OUR COLDEST
NIGHT, WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S OVER AREAS
NORTH OF I-10, THE LOW TO MID 40 OVER AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-10, AND THE LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST. IT WILL BE BREEZY AS WELL,
SO CONDITIONS WOULD FEEL A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN THE LOWS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP US RAIN FREE AND SUNNY ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
24
AVIATION
(18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
WILL BE CONTINUING WITH VFR THROUGH THIS TAF PACKAGE. E/SE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON (6-11KTS) WILL BE DECREASING THIS EVENING AND BECOMING MORE
VARIABLE (2-6KTS) OVERNIGHT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON LOW CIGS DE-
VELOPING BY SUNRISE, PARTICULARLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
(GENERALLY IAH SOUTH TO THE COAST) WHERE THE RETURNING MOISTURE HELPS
WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR DECKS BRIEFLY (IF THEY DO FORM). OTHERWISE, THE
MAIN FEATURES TOMORROW WILL BE BKN/OVC MID TO HIGH CLOUDS, ALONG WITH
SE WINDS (7-13KTS). 41
MARINE
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
LIGHT EAST WINDS EXPECTED THIS MORNING, BECOMING ONSHORE LATER
TODAY. ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND SEAS WILL RISE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERHEAD. CAUTION FLAGS AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED. IN ADDITION, THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN RISES IN THE WATER LEVELS AND MAY CAUSE
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE NEXT FEW HIGH TIDE CYCLES. A
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING AND MAY
LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY LATER TODAY, IF
NEEDED. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE GULF FACING BEACHES.
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS FRONT IS
PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST SOMETIME MONDAY EVENING, USHERING IN
NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND WIND
DRIVEN SEAS WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. WINDS AND SEAS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
24
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 76 48 79 64 / 0 0 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 53 78 68 / 0 0 10 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 73 66 79 73 / 0 0 20 40
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ436>439.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...FOWLER
LONG TERM....COTTO
AVIATION...41
MARINE...COTTO
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