445
FXUS64 KHGX 160522
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1122 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
SO FAR, IT DOES LOOK LIKE SE TX WILL GET ONE MORE DRY/QUIET NIGHT
WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AND THE NEXT MID/UP-
PER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING. AS
FOR LOWS TONIGHT, READINGS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S CENTRAL, TO
THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS.
THE INCREASINGLY SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DRAWING MID AND HIGH CLOUD
COVER INTO THE REGION STARTING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH THE
DAY. THE SLOWLY INCREASING MOISTURE AT THE LOWER LEVELS WILL ALSO
BRING THE CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG TOMORROW MORNING. ELSE,
TOMORROW SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY AS HUMIDITY LEVELS CREEP UP. HIGHS
COULD BE TEMPERED A BIT BY THE INCREASED CLOUDS...BUT MOST LOCAT-
IONS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S. WHILE SOME OF THE SHORT-RANGE
MODELS HAVE HINTED THAT WE COULD SEE SOME WEAK/VERY ISOLATED WAA-
TYPE SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW MORNING, THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL LIKELY BE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING FOR
THE SHORT-TERM. THIS STRENGTHENING WAA HEADING INTO SUN DOES SEEM
TO BE SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN UNSETTLED/ACTIVE SUN AND MON. (SEE
BELOW.) 41
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY,
SPINNING UP A SURFACE LOW OVER MEXICO. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT, FORMING A 30 KNOT LLJ ACROSS THE REGION AND
INCREASING PWS TO AROUND 1.6-1.8 INCHES. FORCING ALOFT FROM THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE, ALONG WITH THE LLJ AND ISENTROPIC LIFTING
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
RAIN CHANCES HIGHEST IN AREAS WEST OF I-45. DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS OF SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT. AS THIS SYSTEM FILLS NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT, THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE TEXAS WILL SHARPEN, PWS OVER SE
TEXAS WILL RISE TO 1.7-2.0 INCHES, AND THE LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN TO
AROUND 40-50 KNOTS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR AREA FORM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
LOOKING AT SURFACE WINDS & DEWPOINTS, LREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST
THAT THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SE TEXAS SOMETIME BETWEEN MONDAY
MORNING AND MONDAY EVENING. THOUGH, GIVEN THE STRENGTHEN OF THE
PARENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM, IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS SE TEXAS QUICKLY. MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY
WILL BE HIGH, SUCH THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES. HOWEVER, THE FAST MOVING NATURE OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. PONDING ON
ROADWAYS COULD STILL OCCUR WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS, ESPECIALLY IN
URBAN AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE.
INSTABILITY IS RATHER LOW IN THE PRESENT SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE IN
SPITE OF OTHERWISE MODEST WIND SHEAR. LOOKING AT SFC CAPE AT COLLEGE
STATION, THE DISTRIBUTION OF LREF MEMBERS IS SKEWED RIGHT, WITH 90%
OF MEMBERS FALLING UNDER 1000 J/KG. MEANWHILE, 500MB BULK WIND SHEAR
VALUES FOLLOW A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION, WITH VALUES LARGELY IN THE
RANGE OF 40-60 KNOTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS TO PRIMARILY
BE SPEED SHEER, WITH WIND VECTORS ORIENTED MORE PARALLEL WITH
RESPECT TO THE COLD FRONT, FAVORING A LINEAR STORM MODE. BOTTOM
LINE, THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS COLD FRONT IS LOW (LESS
THAN 15%). IF ANY STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, THEY'LL MOST LIKELY BE NEAR THE BRAZOS VALLEY, WHERE
CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS.
COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT THAT NIGHT. FOR
TUESDAY, HIGHS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 70S/LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S/MID 50S INLAND AND UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST. ON
WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW, MUCH BROADER AND DEEPER, SHOULD
DIG ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH
ANOTHER SLOG OF COLD, DRY AIR THROUGH SE TEXAS, LOWERING
TEMPERATURES FURTHER AND BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTED
TO BE COLDEST OF THE SEASON, RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
INLAND AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. THESE COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY, THOUGH RIDGING BUILDING
UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SUGGEST THAT WARMER WEATHER MAY
GRADUALLY RETURN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
03
AVIATION
(06Z TAF AMENDMENT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
STARTING TO SEE THE CLOUD DECK OFF THE COAST (AROUND 3500 FEET) EDGE
INLAND BETWEEN THE LBX AREA AND THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA. 06Z TAFS SHOW
THIS DECK SPREADING INLAND ON SATURDAY WHEN WE COULD SEE A SCT/BKN MIX,
AND WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON MVFR CEILINGS UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT
(CURRENT CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING/LEVELS OF THE CLOUDS REMAINS ON THE
LOW SIDE). WE MIGHT NEED TO INTRODUCE SOME SHRA IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT
THRU SUNDAY MORNING TIME PERIOD. FOR WINDS, LIGHT TONIGHT (MAINLY 5
KNOTS OR LESS INLAND AND CLOSER TO 10 KNOTS GLS) THEN INCREASING SE
TOMORROW (AROUND 10 KNOTS) AND REMAINING SE TOMORROW NIGHT (AROUND
5 TO 10 KNOTS).
42
MARINE
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
WINDS SHOULD VEER SOUTHEASTERLY AND STRENGTHEN THIS WEEKEND AS
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM DEVELOPS NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA. CAUTION
FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE,
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS OVERHEAD. STRONG WINDS WILL BRING ELEVATED WATER LEVELS,
RESULTING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE. IN ADDITION,
THERE WILL ALSO BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG GULF FACING
BEACHES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ON
SUNDAY, INCREASING INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SOMETIME MONDAY EVENING, BRINGING
NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL ON
TUESDAY, WINDS AND SEAS QUICKLY RISE AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL NECESSITATE ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BEFORE WINDS
AND SEAS SUBSIDE AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
03
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 50 78 65 81 / 0 0 10 70
HOUSTON (IAH) 54 77 68 81 / 0 10 30 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 67 78 73 80 / 0 20 40 40
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
TXZ214-313-335>338-436>439.
GM...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page