682
FXUS64 KHGX 161133
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
533 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL BE THE THEME FOR THIS
WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED EASTWARD TO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY RESULTING IN SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PUMPING
HIGHER PWATS/LOW LEVEL CLOUDS INTO SE TEXAS. IN THE UPPER-LEVELS,
RIDING TO THE EAST AND TROUGHING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL LEAD TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HELPING TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS GETTING INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THE DRASTIC TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE
THE INCREASE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES WARMER. AREAS NORTH OF THE
HOUSTON METRO WILL BE IN THE MID 60S, THEN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
FOR THE METRO AND ALONG/SOUTH OF I-10.
THAT TROUGHING TO THE WEST WILL BECOME A CUTOFF LOW ON SUNDAY AND
BEGIN TO PROGRESS TOWARD NORTHWEST MEXICO/DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS
THIS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO TEXAS, THERE WILL BE INCREASING WAA AND
PVA LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DOWN NEAR THE COAST AS EARLY AS
THIS EVENING, BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS MOST OF
SE TEXAS BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE WILL BE A LULL IN THE
PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY, BUT WILL RETURN ON MONDAY (MORE ON THAT
IN THE LONG TERM BELOW). RAIN TOTALS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FORM NOTHING/TRACE TO UP TO 0.5-1" WHERE ISOLATED
STORMS DEVELOP/POSSIBLE TRAINING DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR MOST THE REGION WITH PARTS OF JACKSON,
WHARTON, AND COLORADO COUNTIES GETTING INTO THE UPPER 80S. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE HOUSTON METRO AND IMMEDIATE
COAST NOT DIPPING BELOW THE MID 70S. THIS WILL BE THE LAST
UNSEASONABLY WARM NIGHT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK THANKS TO WHAT
AWAITS US MONDAY.
FOWLER
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
A MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM
NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MONDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE, AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. AS IT DOES SO, LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RISE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE
MORNING, WITH PWS INCREASING TO 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. WINDS WILL ALSO
STRENGTHEN AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND A 40-50 KT
LLJ DEVELOPS OVER OUR LOCAL AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
INCREASED LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN RAIN
CHANCES TO ELEVATE FROM SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STARTING FROM THE
BRAZOS VALLEY REGION EARLY MORNING AND EXPANDING SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS THE COAST BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
POSSIBLY REACHING THE COASTAL LOCATIONS NEAR THE EVENING HOURS.
THE SPEED OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HELP MITIGATE FLOOD IMPACTS
FROM THE HEAVY RAIN. REGARDLESS, PROCEED WITH CAUTION DURING YOUR
COMMUTE AS PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE MAY STILL OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING DOWN MONDAY NIGHT AND LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE LOW 50S OVER PORTIONS NORTH OF I-10 AND
IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S OVER THE REST OF THE INLAND PORTIONS
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL NOT FEEL
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON TUESDAY AS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES COOLER AREAWIDE. HOWEVER, A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
AND WILL BRING A REINFORCING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
STRONGER CAA.
THE MOST IMPORTANT PART OF THE REINFORCING FRONT IS THAT WE WILL
FINALLY EXPERIENCE NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE PRETTY COLD AS LOWS DIP INTO THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S OVER AREAS NORTH OF I-10, THE LOW TO MID 40 OVER
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10, AND THE LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP US RAIN FREE AND SUNNY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.
24
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
A BKN TO OVC CLOUD DECK AT AROUND 3500 TO 4500FT HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 7-10KT WILL DEVELOP BY THE MID MORNING AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTS
TO 20KT POSSIBLE AT GLS BEGINNING TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 5-7Z TONIGHT WITH CIGS AROUND
1500FT THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT, BUT WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN CHANCES PERSISTING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
FOWLER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SHOULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. WINDS OF 20-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND ELEVATED SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED. THE STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN RISES IN THE WATER LEVELS AND MAY CAUSE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE NEXT FEW HIGH TIDE CYCLES. THUS, THE
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS LIKELY TO BE EXTENDED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE GULF FACING BEACHES.
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS FRONT IS
PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST SOMETIME MONDAY EVENING OR EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT, USHERING IN NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND WIND DRIVEN SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER A REINFORCING FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THURSDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
24
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 79 65 82 68 / 0 10 60 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 78 69 81 73 / 0 30 60 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 79 73 81 75 / 10 40 60 20
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR TXZ214-313-
335>338-436>439.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...FOWLER
LONG TERM....COTTO (24)
AVIATION...FOWLER
MARINE...COTTO (24)
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