995
FXUS64 KHGX 162330
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
530 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NE CONUS
AND A MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS HAS HELP-
ED TO DEEPEN THE ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS SE TX TODAY. THIS HAS WARMED
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON, AND
THIS TREND IS GOING TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES WILL RETURN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AS THE STRONG WAA PERSISTS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN/
AROUND THE PINEY WOODS TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.
WITH PROGGED PWS CLIMBING TO 1.6-1.9", RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE IN-
CREASING ACROSS THE CWA TOMORROW. THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS ARE GOING
TO KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GENERALLY ISOLATED AND MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, IT SHOULD BE A CLOUDY GREY WET DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. WE COULD SEE A BREAK FROM THESE RAINS TO-
MORROW EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH ONLY ISOLAT-
ED COVERAGE LATE OVERNIGHT IN THE FORM OF WAA-TYPE STREAMER SHRAS.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. BUT, LOOK FOR MORE RAIN AND
OTHER UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MON...SEE BELOW. 41
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
WARM, HUMID AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING. AS
THE MID-UPPER TROF EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM WEST TX-OK-KS, ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN
THE AFTERNOON & EARLY EVENING HOURS. WOULD ANTICIPATE A THIN BAND OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT MEAGER, SO WHILE SEVERE CHANCES ARE NOT
EXACTLY ZERO, THEY SHOULD BE ON THE LOWER END.
DRIER AND A TOUCH COOLER WX IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THIS WEAK BOUNDARY
MONDAY NIGHT & TUESDAY. BUT, AS RIDGING AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST AND
TROFFINESS DEEPENS TO OUT EAST, WE SHOULD SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT,
DRY SECONDARY FRONT PUSH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS ONE WILL KNOCK TEMPS BACK DOWN TO, OR SLIGHTLY BELOW,
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW
RESUMES NEXT WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL/SLOW MODIFICATION TREND.
47
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 517 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHRA TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. CIGS
ARE LIKELY TO DROP TO MVFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT, REMAINING SUB VFR
THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW. THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF IFR CIGS,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. WE HAVE CHANGED THE
IFR PROB30S TO TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INCREASING RISK AT
MOST TAF SITES. HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FOR NOW, WE HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF TS IN
THE TAFS. BUT WE WILL BE EVALUATING THE TS RISK AND MAY
POTENTIALLY NEED TO ADD MENTION OF TS IN SOME OF THE TAFS IN
FUTURE UPDATES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT, LOOK FOR INCREASING ONSHORE
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. PLAN IS TO START OUT
WITH THE CAUTION FLAGS OFFSHORE TONIGHT, BUT THERE'S A CHANCE THEY
MIGHT NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO ADVISORIES BEFORE MORNING. A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD THEY'LL BE NEEDED SUNDAY.
A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED THIN BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY OFF THE COAST LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING HOURS. A SECONDARY, STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THOUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR
PUSHING OVER THE WARM WATER WILL LEAD TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO GALE FORCE BEHIND THIS
SECOND FRONT.
WITH A NEARLY FULL MOON IN PLACE, ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS/SEAS,
THERE'S A RISK OF SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES BETWEEN TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. PETSS INDICATES HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD BEING SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN OBSERVED LEVELS OF 3.9-4.5FT MLLW
ARE FORECAST. (FOR REFERENCE, THE LOWEST COASTAL ROADS LIKE HIGHWAY
87/124 ON BOLIVAR BEGIN SEEING SOME OVERWASH AT AROUND 3.75 MLLW).
HAVE EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THROUGH 9AM MONDAY. 47
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 66 82 68 80 / 20 70 30 100
HOUSTON (IAH) 69 82 73 83 / 40 60 20 90
GALVESTON (GLS) 73 80 75 81 / 40 50 20 90
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ214-313-
335>338-436>439.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GMZ350-355-370-375.
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...SELF
MARINE...47
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