697
FXUS64 KHGX 171135
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
535 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
GOING TO BE AN UNSETTLED START OF THE WEEK WITH MOIST ONSHORE
FLOW BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY,
AND THEN A PASSING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY USHERING IN A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WE ALREADY ARE SEEING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS
AND POCKETS OF MODERATE RAINFALL THIS MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-10. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO EXPAND THROUGH DAYBREAK
AND PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. CAM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING
ON ONE OR TWO BANDS OF TRAINING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL
LEAD TO RAIN TOTALS OF UP TO 1-2" POSSIBLE. THIS COULD LEAD TO
MINOR STREET FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. FOR AREAS THAT
DON'T GET THESE TRAINING LINES OF STORMS, EXPECT A TRACE TO 0.5".
THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE
MONDAY MORNING, BUT THAT AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS
QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING IN THE MID
MORNING AND EXITING BY THE MID AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POP UP AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. SPC HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE REGION UNDER A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS FAIRLY CONDITIONAL AS
INSTABILITY WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. IF ANY STORMS CAN GET
GOING, THEN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL BE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY, SO
RAINFALL TOTALS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE 0.1-0.5 INCHES WITH
SOME ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS IF THOSE STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP.
RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY END AFTER THE FROPA WITH CLEARING SKIES
THROUGH THE EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON TO RUN ABOUT
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST OF THE AREA GETTING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S. PARTS OF JACKSON, WHARTON, AND COLORADO COUNTIES
MAY RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS RUNNING 20-25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS TEMPERATURES ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S FOR MOST THE AREA. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE ON MONDAY HAS A FAIR
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS IT WILL ULTIMATELY BE DRIVEN BY THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH JUST BEFORE
OR AT PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE BRYAN-COLLEGE STATION AREA UP THROUGH THE
PINEY WOODS WITH LOW 80S ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER, A SPEEDIER FRONT WILL
MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THEN EXPECTED BY A FEW DEGREES,
AND A SLOWER FRONT WILL BE MEAN WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE HOUSTON METRO IN THE LOW TO MID
50S (EVEN SOME UPPER 40S IN THE PINEY WOODS) AND THEN UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S IN THE METRO AND ALONG THE COAST. EVEN COLDER WEATHER IS
ON TAP IN THE COMING DAYS - BUT MORE ON THAT IN THE LONG TERM
BELOW.
FOWLER
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
CAA ON TUESDAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPRESSIVE AFTER MONDAY'S
COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY COOLING A FEW DEGREES. IN FACT,
TUESDAY'S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER,
RANGING IN THE LOW 70S OVER THE PINEY WOODS, THE MID TO UPPER 70S
OVER AREAS NORTH OF I-10, AND THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-10. FORTUNATELY, A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WILL BRING A
REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING IN GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH STRONGER CAA WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, RESULTING IN NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
AT THE MOMENT, EXPECT WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS TO BE MAINLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S NORTH OF I-10 AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-10. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS TEXAS,
RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
CONTINUES ON TRACK FOR A 10-20 DEGREE DROP, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NORTH OF I-10, THE LOW TO MID 40S ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-10, AND THE LOW TO MID 50S OVER THE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.
BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST,
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN AND BEGIN TO USHER IN WARMER MOIST AIR
FROM THE GULF AND LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
24
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
A MIX OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MID-MORNING WITH CIGS BETWEEN 700-1500FT. THEN, MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINED OF THE PERIOD WITH CIGS OF
1500-2500FT FOR TERMINAL ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 WITH THE COASTAL
TERMINALS HAVING PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS DUE TO GUSTY WINDS. SE
WINDS OF 6-10KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA,
THEN INCREASING TO 15KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT (AND
UP TO 30KT AT GLS) POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT THAT THE ISOLATED HEAVIER
RAINFALL MAY FALL IN HARRIS COUNTY (IMPACTING HOU AND IAH), BUT
REALLY ANY SITE WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO HAVE AN ISOLATED STORM. SO,
HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR SHRA OR TS FOR MOST SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT, BUT AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS BACK TO THE REGION MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
FOWLER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
ONSHORE WINDS OF 20-25 KTS, ELEVATED SEAS, AND AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT. CAUTION FLAGS FOR THE BAYS AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THE GULF ARE NOW IN EFFECT. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE
NEXT FEW HIGH TIDE CYCLES. THERE IS ALSO THE RISK FOR STRONG RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF FACING BEACHES.
THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST SOMETIME MONDAY
EVENING, USHERING IN LIGHT NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. A
REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL USHER IN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
ELEVATED SEAS IN ITS WAKE. ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOW
WATER LEVELS OVER THE BAYS THURSDAY MORNING.
WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW MAY RETURN SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING.
24
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 84 68 79 51 / 60 40 70 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 82 73 83 58 / 80 20 90 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 75 80 66 / 60 10 90 30
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ214-313-
335>338-436>439.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ436>439.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
GMZ330-335.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CST MONDAY
FOR GMZ330-335.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ350-355-370-
375.
SHORT TERM...FOWLER
LONG TERM....COTTO (24)
AVIATION...FOWLER
MARINE...COTTO (24)
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