104
FXUS64 KHGX 180523
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1123 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
SCATTERED SHOWERS, ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED STORMS, CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. WE COULD SEE A STRONGER STORM DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE
DAY GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE (~1.7 IN PW) IN PLACE ALONG WITH SB
INSTABILITY OF UP TO 2000 J/KG, BUT AN OTHERWISE LACK OF STRONG
FORCING WILL LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR
THE TIME BEING. OUR ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE APPROACH OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE TX PANHANDLE, DURING
THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT'S ARRIVAL AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, PUSHING WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 20 MPH INLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WHILE VALUES NEAR
THE COAST MAY REACH 30 MPH. THE CONTINUED STEADY WAA/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID
NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S AND ELEVATED DEW POINTS REMAINING
IN PLACE.
LATEST HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO PLACE THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT IN
THE BRAZOS VALLEY JUST AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW, PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST AND MOVING OFFSHORE DURING THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD PRESUMABLY PRODUCE A FEW STRONGER WIND
GUSTS (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST), THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT
BEFORE PEAK HEATING SHOULD PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE W/NW BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT,
ALLOWING FOR COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. A
PLEASANT NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
AND DEW POINTS DROPPING OFF INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
CADY
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT THAT
PUSHED THRU ON MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL (LOW
80S), BUT THAT'LL CHANGE ON WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY, STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. IT'LL BE MOISTURE STARVED AS IT PASSES SO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...THOUGH YOU SHOULD NOTICE THE BREEZIER
AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE. NICE WX WILL PERSIST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMS
(40S/70S). WEATHER STILL LOOKS NICE NEXT WEEKEND ALTHOUGH THE
AIRMASS WILL BEGIN MODIFYING AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST
AND ONSHORE WINDS RESUME. 47
AVIATION
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR SKIES AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THE PRIMARY
CONCERN DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA
THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MOST RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS HAVE
BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON TSRA CHANCES. FOR NOW, WE'VE OPTED TO LEAVE
MENTION OF TS IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LINE
WHILE BECOME MORE S TO SSW. CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS IN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR WHILE WINDS QUICKLY
DECREASE IN THE FRONT'S WAKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND GUSTY
OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD AND WATER LEVELS WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT AS ARE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES. MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AROUND THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. LOCATIONS SUSCEPTIBLE: LOW LYING LOCATIONS AND ROADS ALONG
THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA INCLUDING THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 87 AT
124, WESTERN GALVESTON ISLAND, BLUE WATER HIGHWAY AND SURFSIDE. IN
ADDITION, LOW LYING COASTAL ROADS ALONG THE BAYFRONT COULD SEE SOME
MINOR OVERWASH. THIS INCLUDES PORTIONS OF TODDVILLE ROAD IN SEABROOK
AND POSSIBLY THE NORTH APPROACH TO THE ROADWAY TO THE LYNCHBURG
FERRY.
A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED THIN BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY MODEST OFFSHORE WINDS IN ITS WAKE. A SECONDARY,
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THOUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR PUSHING OVER THE WARM WATER WILL LEAD TO
STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT AND THE NEED FOR
ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WIND AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS WEEKEND. 47
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 68 79 50 80 / 30 80 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 73 82 56 80 / 20 90 10 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 76 80 65 79 / 10 90 40 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ214-313-
335>338-436>439.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ436>439.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ330-335-350-
355-370-375.
SHORT TERM...CADY
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...SELF
MARINE...42
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