070
FXUS64 KHGX 180930
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
330 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
THE END OF THIS WARM AND HUMID NOVEMBER WEATHER IS IN SIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY USHERING IN MORE
FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DEEP ONSHORE
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MAKE THIS
MORNING UNSEASONABLY WARM (ABOUT 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) AND
MUGGY. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING NEAR DAYBREAK,
BUT BREEZY WINDS SHOULD HELP LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. THERE WILL BE
WIND GUSTS OF 25-30MPH DOWN ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WHICH IS
BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. DON'T CURRENTLY HAVE PLANS ON
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY, BUT IF THOSE GUSTS BECOME FREQUENT ENOUGH
THEN THERE MAY BE A SHORT-LIVED ADVISORY LATER THIS MORNING.
THAT AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY OUT TOWARDS
WEST/CENTRAL TEXAS, BUT IT WILL QUICKLY BE MOVING TOWARDS OUR
REGION BY THE LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS
OF DAYTIME HEATING, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, TO BRING US BACK
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY - BUT COOLER
WEATHER IS ON THE WAY. FROPA IS EXPECTED FOR THE BRAZOS VALLEY
BETWEEN 11AM AND 1PM, REACH THE I- 45 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 1-3PM, AND
THE EXITING TO LA BY 4 OR 5PM. THERE WILL BE AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WITH BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THERE IS A
LIMITED THREAT OF SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. SPC MAINTAINS THE MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1
OF 5) FOR THE AREA WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD STRONG WIND GUSTS, BUT
CANNOT OUT RULE ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAZARD. AGAIN THIS IS A
VERY CONDITIONAL THREAT AS THE STRONG STORMS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO
EVEN INITIALIZE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. RAIN TOTALS THROUGH THIS
EVENING WILL BE AROUND 0.2-0.6", BUT THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS IF THOSE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MATERIALIZE. ALL RAIN
AND SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL END ONCE THAT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER FROPA.
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS MORE PACIFIC-BASED THAN ARTIC-
BASED, SO WHILE THERE WILL BE A COOL DOWN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY THE
REAL COOL DOWN WILL COME FRONT THE COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING (BUT MORE ON THAT IN THE LONG TERM BELOW). LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE PINEY WOODS,
LOW TO MID 50S NORTH AND WEST OF THE HOUSTON METRO, AND THEN UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S IN THE METRO AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WITH EVEN SOME AREAS WEST OF THE BRAZOS RIVER GETTING INTO
THE LOW 80S. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT, BUT
SUBTRACT 3-5 DEGREES.
FOWLER
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF THE DRY
REINFORCING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL FINALLY BRING US NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THAT
BEING SAID, WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
NORTH OF I-10 AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-10. WINDS WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS TEXAS. TRANQUIL WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES ARE ON TAP FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S OVER
AREAS NORTH OF I-10, THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-10, AND THE LOW TO MID 50S OVER THE COASTAL LOCATIONS.
BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A STEADY RISE ON FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS, BRINGING WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE
GULF.
24
AVIATION
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR SKIES AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THE PRIMARY
CONCERN DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA
THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MOST RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS HAVE
BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON TSRA CHANCES. FOR NOW, WE'VE OPTED TO LEAVE
MENTION OF TS IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LINE
WHILE BECOME MORE S TO SSW. CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS IN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR WHILE WINDS QUICKLY
DECREASE IN THE FRONT'S WAKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 210 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
ONSHORE WINDS OF 20-30 KTS AND SEAS OF 7-10 FT ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT ALONG WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WILL MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AND USHER
IN LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS IN ITS WAKE. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH, THE WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO SUBSIDE. THUS, THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE
WATERS THROUGH 3 PM TODAY AND FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AND STRONG RIP CURRENT
STATEMENT WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM TODAY, BUT MAY BE
EXTENDED A FEW MORE HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE
CYCLE.
A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL RESULT IN STRONG GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS
AND ELEVATED SEAS IN ITS WAKE. ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE
THURSDAY. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
24
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 80 50 79 49 / 80 10 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 83 57 79 53 / 90 20 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 81 65 78 59 / 80 50 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ214-
313-335>338-436>439.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ436>439.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ330-
335-350-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ370-375.
SHORT TERM...FOWLER
LONG TERM....COTTO (24)
AVIATION...SELF
MARINE...COTTO (24)
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