857
FXUS64 KHGX 182333
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
533 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM A ROBUST SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS JUST
TO THE NORTH OF DOWNTOWN HOUSTON, CONTINUING TO PUSH SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WE
CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM
OR TWO IN THE WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TO THE EAST
OF THE I-45 CORRIDOR, GIVEN THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE (SBCAPE ~1500
J/KG) ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (35-40KT IN THE LOWEST 3 KM) LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR. AS SUCH, A BRIEF SPIN-UP OR TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. POLK, SAN JACINTO, AND LIBERTY COUNTIES
WILL REMAIN UNDER A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 8 PM CST.
THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY, WHICH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS, WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO BEGIN TO
FILTER INTO THE AREA. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S,
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO
THE 40S. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL CONCURRENTLY DROP INTO THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S. A GENERALLY COOL, CALM, AND PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHT W TO NW WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS SHOULD
MOSTLY REMAIN CONCENTRATED IN THE HIGH 70S TO NEAR 80. LOOK FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO AGAIN DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
CADY
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
A DRY, REINFORCING FRONT & COOLER AIRMASS SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS
OF FILTERING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE 40S (MAYBE A FEW 30S IN THE PINEY WOODS) AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN ITS WAKE THRU THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE FIRST TIME IN OVER A MONTH THAT
MANY OF US WILL SEE THE AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE BELOW NORMAL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST THIS WEEKEND
AND THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL TREND A BIT MORE ZONAL SUN-MON.
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STILL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND
DESPITE THE RETURN OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE LLVLS, BUT WE'LL SEE A
GRADUAL UPWARD TREND WITH THE THE TEMPERATURES. MIGHT SEE A WEAK
FRONT TRY TO SNEAK INTO PARTS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY DEPENDING ON
YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE, BUT PATTERN ALOFT SUGGESTS IT MIGHT NOT HAVE
TOO MUCH SUPPORT TO MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH...AND SHOULD BE QUITE
SHALLOW/WEAK IF IT DOES. 47
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
FRONT HAS RECENTLY PASSED THROUGH HOU (CURRENTLY IN LINE WITH
NON-TAF TERMINALS T41, EFD, AND LVJ). BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE ARE
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THAT WILL IMPACT ALL BUT CLL OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS WITH MVFR CIGS GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR/SKC OVERNIGHT. LBX
TO SEE WIND SHIFT NEXT, ALONG WITH SHOWER POTENTIAL AS WELL.
FARTHEST OUT IN THE WARMER, UNSTABLE AIR, GLS LOOKS TO SEE SOME
THUNDER AROUND 10 MILES OUT, PROMPTING A SHORT VCTS THERE, BUT IT
WILL SOON TRANSITION TO VCSH, SEE THE WIND SHIFT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AROUND/JUST AFTER 01Z, THEN JOIN THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS IN VFR LATE THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT, LOOK FOR WINDS TO GO SLACK, AND WITH MOISTURE FROM
TODAY'S RAIN, COULD SEE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR PATCHY FOG JUST BEFORE
DAWN FROM CXO SOUTH TO LBX. FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE, GIVING US VFR AND LIGHTER NW WINDS AREA-WIDE
TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
THOUGH ONSHORE WINDS ARE STARTING TO DIMINISH AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SEAS ARE STILL RUNNING
7-10FT. AS SUCH WE'LL BE EXTENDING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES INTO
THE EVENING (NEARSHORE) AND OVERNIGHT (OFFSHORE) HOURS. WATER LEVELS
ARE STILL ABOVE NORMAL, THOUGH RECENT TRENDS AND GUIDANCE INDICATES
THEY'LL PROBABLY PEAK JUST BELOW COASTAL FLOODING CONCERN LEVELS AT
THE NEXT HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATER TODAY AND EVENING. WILL ALLOW THE
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THAT TIME.
A STRONGER FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR NORTH WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20-30KT AND
SEAS BUILD BACK INTO THE 6-9FT RANGE AS THIS OCCURS. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCA'S CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS/SEAS BEGIN A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT & THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION.
ONSHORE WINDS RESUME THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH TRANSITIONS TO THE
EAST. 47
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 49 78 50 68 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 55 79 54 69 / 40 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 64 78 60 70 / 40 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ214-
313-335>338-436>439.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ436>439.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR GMZ330-335.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ350-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ370-375.
SHORT TERM...CADY
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...LUCHS
MARINE...42
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