716
FXUS64 KHGX 211015
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
415 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. ALOFT, THE NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST. ALL OF THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO LIGHT N/NE WINDS THESE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE COOL/DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER SE TX.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES, HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW ARE GOING
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS WILL RUN FROM THE UP-
PER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA...MID TO UPPER 40S OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA TONIGHT (MID 50S AT THE BEACHES). THESE
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER FOR TO-
MORROW NIGHT...UPPER 30S FOR THE PINEY WOODS, LOWER AND MID 40S OVER
THE BRAZOS VALLEY TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR, UPPER 40S FOR H-TOWN PROPER/
COASTAL COUNTIES, AND THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 41
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEPART TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY.
AS IT DOES SO, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN AND WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSPORT WARMER MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH THE HIGHS
GOING FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY TO THE LOW TO UPPER 80S
BY MONDAY.
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SKIRTING
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND COULD POTENTIALLY BRING IN A VERY WEAK COLD
FRONT SOMETIME LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME, LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE (PWS OF AROUND 1 INCH OR LESS) AND/OR FORCING MAY NOT
BE SUFFICIENT FOR THIS FRONT TO BRING US MUCH RAIN ACTIVITY,
ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHAT
THE FRONT COULD PROVIDE FOR US, HOWEVER, IS A RESPITE IN THE WARMING
TREND AND MAY EVEN COOL US DOWN A FEW DEGREES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY COULD RANGE BETWEEN THE
LOW 70S TO LOW 80S. AGAIN, THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW STRONG AND
HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT TRACKS.
A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AND COULD BRING IN
ANOTHER, POTENTIALLY STRONGER, COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT.
THUS, IT IS CURRENTLY DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT EXACTLY HOW MUCH RAIN
WE WILL RECEIVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH COOLING WILL OCCUR
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FOR NOW, PROCEEDED WITH THE NBM SOLUTION
FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE, WHICH INCLUDES SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE INLAND PORTIONS STARTING DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
24
AVIATION
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN, GIVING SKC AND LIGHT, FAIRLY VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGHOUT. WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY MORE NORTHERLY THAN
ANYTHING OVERNIGHT, BACKING TO BE MORE NORTHWESTERLY MID-DAY, AND
WEST/WEST-SOUTHWEST BY EVENING (BEFORE GOING TO CALM AFTER SUNSET,
ANYWAY).
MARINE
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
TEXAS. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY AND INCREASE SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. CAUTION FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FROPA - POTENTIALLY
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS SOMETIME THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE FOR THE
TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST MODELS. THEREFORE, SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE TIMING OF THE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AND RAIN CHANCES COULD OCCUR
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
24
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 70 41 71 43 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 70 46 71 46 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 69 56 70 62 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....COTTO (24)
AVIATION...LUCHS
MARINE...COTTO (24)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page