251
FXUS64 KHGX 152117
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
317 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
IT HAS BEEN A WARM AND MUGGY SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S; AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. WAA AND CONTINUED INFLUX OF GULF
MOISTURE ARE ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE PASSAGE OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH A MODERATE LLJ WILL INCREASE WAA AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE AREA, SUGGESTING FOG, LOW CLOUDS AND/OR A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. IN FACT, ISENTROPIC LIFT FORECASTS AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BRING A DECENT ASCENT IN THE NEAR-SURFACE
LAYER; THEREFORE, LIGHT DRIZZLE IS LIKELY OTHER THAN JUST LOW
STRATUS. CURRENTLY THE DEEPER LAYER AND BEST CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE
APPEARS TO BE MAINLY WEST OF I-45. AREAS EAST OF I-45 WILL HAVE
HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF SEEING FOG THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM ONSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE US ANOTHER MILD NIGHT
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.
THE FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS THE SAME FOR MONDAY WITH WELL-ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. CONTINUED ISENTROPIC
ASCENT, WAA AND PWATS INTO THE 1.1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE WILL LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND PINEY WOODS AREAS.
HIGHS INTO THE 75 TO 80 DEGF RANGE.
JM
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
THE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE CITY OF HOUSTON THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR IS 65°F, BUT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE
HIGH TEMPERATURES 10+°F ABOVE NORMAL AS THE UNSEASONAL WARMTH
PERSISTS. PW VALUES REMAIN IN THE 1.1"-1.4" RANGE WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW PREVAILING ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS A
RESULT, WE'LL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. BEFORE THAT THOUGH, THE EXCESS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP FOG (RADIATIONAL AND SEA FOG) IN THE FORECAST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS. KEPT THE LOW TEMPERATURES BUMPED
UP ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE LOW TO MID 60S AS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
AND FOG WILL KEEP US FROM SEEING EFFICIENT COOLING.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPPING DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
TRAVERSING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BE THE
DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING HAS COME
INTO A BIT OF BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE. FROPA TIMING LOOKS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS
ON WEDNESDAY, SO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SOUTH OF I-10 AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ELSEWHERE,
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES (BASED ON CURRENT FROPA TIMING) WOULD TOP OUT
IN THE LOW 70S. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE AIDED BY A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT THAT PUSHES IN LATE FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT, WE'LL SEE
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S/50S. THE SECOND FRONT WILL BE A BIT
STRONGER AS IT DROPS OUR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S/40S.
BATISTE
AVIATION
(18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
MVFR CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
MOST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOW CEILINGS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
MONDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS MODERATE GIVEN
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT. AT THE MOMENT, WILL GENERALLY KEEP MVFR
CONDITIONS AT MOST TERMINALS, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF IFR AND
LOW-END MVFR AT KCLL, KUTS AND KCXO TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE SSE, GUSTING TO 15-20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
JM
MARINE
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY COOLER COASTAL
WATERS, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK WITH
PERIODS OF SEA FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING
TIMEFRAME. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE ON LATE WEDNESDAY WITH MODERATE NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS PREVAILING IN ITS WAKE. WINDS AND SEAS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON THURSDAY, BUT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE
FRIDAY.
BATISTE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 65 77 63 76 / 10 20 20 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 65 78 65 76 / 10 20 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 64 71 64 70 / 10 20 20 20
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....BATISTE
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BATISTE
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