856
FXUS64 KHGX 161729
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1129 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
HAPPY MONDAY! LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OCCURRING ACROSS SE TX THIS
AM AS A MODERATE LLJ, WAA, AND MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUE TO OCCUR.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW FOR TODAY. VERY LIGHT REFLECTIVITY
PASSING OVER THE GULF WATERS AT THIS TIME. ISENTROPIC ASCENT COULD
YIELD ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AREAS N OF
I10. OTHERWISE, EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES & WARM TEMPS.
RECORD HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN UNTOUCHED TODAY; HOWEVER, TEMPS CONTINUE
TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TODAY WE CAN EXPECT
HIGHS TO RUN ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WE PROMISE THAT IT'S
DECEMBER. LOWS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE IN THE SURFACE LAYER AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG FOR TONIGHT.
LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THE CITY
OF HOUSTON WILL CONTINUE TO BE APPROXIMATELY 10°F ABOVE NORMAL AS A
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO REIGN OVER THE AREA. THE
EXCESS MOISTURE WILL KEEP FOGGY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE 1.1"-1.4" RANGE,
AND WITH SE WINDS PREVAILING ALONG A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, COULD SEE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AGAIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. CLOUD COVER TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL INHIBIT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WILL KEEP LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AREA WIDE.
ADAMS
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
WARM, MUGGY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
AREA. BEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE SITUATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA IN THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. PRECIP WILL PROBABLY BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE
FURTHER SOUTH AS IT ENCOUNTERS A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PUSH OFF THE COAST IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS POINT, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MODERATE
TEMP BUST IF FRONTAL TIMING CHANGES MUCH.
DRIER, MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS WE SEE A REINFORCING
FRONT/AIRMASS BACKDOOR INTO THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. 47
AVIATION
(18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN SCT
TO BKN VFR CEILINGS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON; THOUGH IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND
FOG IS EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING AT MOST
TERMINALS. MOST MODELS KEEP SUGGESTING HIGH PROBABILITIES OF
VISIBILITY BELOW 1 MILE AT TERMINALS FROM CXO COASTWARD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SSW-SSE UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON,
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
JM
MARINE
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
INTO MIDWEEK, THE PRIMARY MARINE HAZARD WILL BE PERIODS OF SEA
FOG...DENSE AT TIMES. ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE SPECIFICS
WITH FOG, BUT SHOULD FOLLOW A TREND OF INITIATING OFF THE COAST
THEN SPREADING INTO THE BAYS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT'LL
THEN RETREAT FROM THE NORTHERN BAYS BACK INTO THE GULF IN THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. WATER TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW
60S GALVESTON BAY AND MID-UPPER 60S MATAGORDA BAY...WHICH WOULD
FAVOR AREAS CLOSER TO GALVESTON BAY SEEING THE MOST FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT AND MORE PRONE TO INTERMITTENT
NAVIGATIONAL ISSUES. ADDITIONAL WARMING OF THE GALVESTON BAY
WATERS COULD TO SLIGHTLY LOWER FOG CHANCES AND MORE PATCHY IN
NATURE.
FOG THREAT WILL END WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF
THE COAST PROBABLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY. MODERATE
NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE MAY REQUIRE THE NEED FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR CAUTION FLAGS. WINDS/SEAS BEGIN TO
SETTLE THURSDAY. A REINFORCING FRONT AND DRIER AIRMASS IS
ANTICIPATED EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. 47
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 77 63 76 64 / 20 20 20 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 78 65 76 64 / 20 10 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 71 64 70 64 / 20 20 20 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...JM
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