805
FXUS64 KHGX 170530
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1130 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING UP INTO THE LOW 80S EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS ROUGHLY 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SITES AS SOME OF THEM MAY
BE CLOSE TO RECORDS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS OF 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON, THE CITY OF HOUSTON (IAH) OBSERVED A HIGH NEAR 80F,
WHICH IS CLOSE TO ITS TODAY'S RECORD HIGH OF 83F SET BACK IN 2021.
WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND DECENT PWS ACROSS THE REGION,
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INLAND THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
OVERALL, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD
AS SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT REMAINS SOMEWHAT STALLED ALONG
NORTH-CENTRAL TX. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERSISTENT LOW
TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND HEALTHY ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SURFACE. AS RESULT, ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOW
CLOUDS/STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG, SOME LOCALLY DENSE. MOST HI-RES
GUIDANCE AND CAMS SUGGEST HIGH PROBABILITIES ON LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY BELOW 1 MILE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DENSE
FOG ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE/LIFT BY MID-LATE TUESDAY
MORNING. LOOK FOR ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
JM
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
WEDNESDAY IS COLD FRONT DAY, BUT MOST OF US WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH
ONE MORE ROUND OF UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AND MUGGINESS. THE GENERAL
TIMING FOR THE FRONT STILL LOOKS TO BE IN THE LATE MORNING FOR THE
BRAZOS VALLEY, EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE HOUSTON METRO AREA, AND NEAR
THE COAST OR OFFSHORE BY SUNSET. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 70S FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. NORTHERN AREAS WILL
HAVE FROPA BEFORE PEAK HEATING, SO HIGH TEMPERATURES THERE WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE LOW 70S. JUST KEEP IN MIND THAT THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON FROPA TIMING, SO THERE COULD BE SOME
FURTHER FLUCTUATIONS AS WE GET IN THE RANGE OF HIGH-RES GUIDANCE.
THE LAST FRAMES OF THE 12Z CAMS/18Z HRRR CATCH THE BEGINNINGS OF
FROPA IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THEY DEPICT A LINE OF WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE BRAZOS VALLEY/PINEY WOODS
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
LOW TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT ~15-20°F COLDER
COMPARED TO TUESDAY NIGHT AS WE DROP INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 40S. IT'S
ACTUALLY GOING TO FEEL LIKE CHRISTMAS IS NEXT WEEK, WHICH IS A PLUS
FOR THOSE THAT WANT TO GET SOME MORE WEAR OUT OF THEIR SWEATERS. THE
FORECAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND IS A COOL AND DRY ONE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S/40S.
A REINFORCING FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AND BRINGS EVEN DRIER
AIR THAT PREVAILS INTO THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE COLDEST IN
THE DAYTIME WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A
WARMING TREND THAT TAKES US INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR AN EVER SO
SLIGHT SNEAK PEEK INTO THE CHRISTMAS FORECAST, THAT GRADUAL WARMING
TREND LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK...
BATISTE
AVIATION
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH MULTIPLE
TAF SITES REPORTING VISIBILITY UNDER 1 MILE AS OF 11 PM CST.
ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH REDUCED
CIGS/VISIBILITIES RESULTING IN LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
UNTIL SUNRISE. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
THEREAFTER, THOUGH MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
AND MARINE FOG MAY PROLONG REDUCED VISIBILITIES ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. A WINDOW OF VFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED AS FOG AND LOW CIGS LOOK TO
RETURN TOMORROW EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
CADY
MARINE
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF SEA FOG WILL
PERSIST INTO THE MIDWEEK. WATER TEMPERATURES AT BUOY 42035 (~20 NM
SOUTH OF GALVESTON BAY) AND IN MOST OF GALVESTON BAY ARE CURRENTLY
AROUND 63°F. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 60S, SO THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEA FOG (DENSE AT TIMES) CONTINUES ESPECIALLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT TO MID-MORNING HOURS. WATER TEMPERATURES COULD WARM OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND MAKE THE SEA FOG MORE PATCHY CLOSER TO
MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE ON LATE WEDNESDAY WITH
MODERATE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS
PREVAILING IN ITS WAKE, AND MAY NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF CAUTION
FLAGS AND/OR ADVISORIES. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON
THURSDAY, BUT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL GOING INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE FRIDAY.
BATISTE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 63 77 62 71 / 10 20 10 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 65 76 63 76 / 10 20 0 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 68 77 65 71 / 10 20 0 20
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR TXZ213-214-227-237-
238-300-313-337-338-437>439.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ330-335-350-
355.
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....BATISTE
AVIATION...CADY
MARINE...BATISTE
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