045
FXUS64 KHGX 172111
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
311 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
WITH MORNING STRATUS/FOG THINNED OUT, CONDITIONS HAVE WARMED RATHER
QUICKLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
BE IN THE MID 70S/MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. AROUND THE BAYS
AND NEARSHORE WATERS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID
60S/LOWER 70S. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, MOSTLY OVER THE GULF WATERS, THOUGH NOT FREQUENT OR WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT MARK ON TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE AREA.
ONSHORE FLOW, LIGHT WINDS, AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM WAA AND COOL
WATER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS & BAYS WILL, LIKE
LAST NIGHT, PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR VISIBILITY
UNDER 1 MILE ARE HIGH (>70%) FOR MUCH OF SE TEXAS. HREF
PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER, BUT BROADLY HIGHLIGHT SIMILAR AREAS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. LAMP GUIDANCE AND NBM MEAN VISIBILITY ADD
FURTHER CONFIDENCE TO FOG DEVELOPING AND BECOMING DENSE DURING THIS
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THEREFORE, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT
FOR THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF SE TEXAS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS FOG WILL IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR WEDNESDAY, SO
MOTORISTS SHOULD DRIVE CAUTIOUSLY, AVOID USING HIGH BEAMS AND LEAVE
PLENTY OF FOLLOWING DISTANCE BETWEEN VEHICLES.
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, AS FOG BEGINS TO CLEAR, A COLD FRONT SHOULD
ENTER THE BRAZOS VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH COLLEGE
STATION AROUND 8-11 AM, THE HOUSTON AREA AROUND 11 AM - 2 PM, THEN
LATER OFF THE COAST AROUND 2-5 PM. A LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THOUGH LACKING
INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHOULD PREVENT THESE STORMS FROM
BECOMING STRONG. COLD & DRY AIR FILLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
LEAD TO A RATHER NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DURING THE DAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S/MID 70S NORTH OF I-10 AND UPPER 70S TO THE
SOUTH. LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S/40S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
WHEN IT COMES TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST, THERE
IS...REALLY NOT MUCH OF ANYTHING WORTH A WHOLE LOT OF DISCUSSION.
BY THURSDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE, SO WE'LL
BE PRETTY SOLIDLY IN THE COLDER, DRIER POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
BUT...PROBABLY NOT THAT MUCH COLDER AND DRIER. IF I COULD PUT
IMAGES IN THIS HERE DISCUSSION, I'D PASTE IN THE ENSEMBLE
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLES USED TO HIGHLIGHT WHEN GEFS OR EPS
MEANS DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM CLIMATOLOGY, TO SHOW OFF ALL
THE...LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION. IF THERE IS ANYTHING TO
HIGHLIGHT AT ALL IT WOULD BE THAT BOTH THE EURO AND GEFS MEAN 500
MB HEIGHTS ARE UP AROUND/ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE LATE THIS WEEK.
THE MAIN IMPLICATION OF THIS IS THAT WHILE I DO HEDGE LOWER THAN
THE NBM EARLY IN THE PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, I
DON'T GO ANY LOWER THAN THE 50TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM
DISTRIBUTION (AND AT TIMES NOT EVEN THAT LOW, GIVEN HOW AGGRESSIVE
IT IS RELATIVE TO THE DETERMINISTIC NBM). WE'LL DIP FOR SURE AS
THE SHALLOW, SURFACE COLD AIR SURGES IN, BUT WITH 90TH PERCENTILE
500 MB HEIGHTS EXPECTED, I DON'T ANTICIPATE IT WILL BE SEVERE OR
LONG-LASTING.
FAIR WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD, AND EVEN THOUGH ONSHORE
FLOW LOOKS TO RETURN THIS WEEKEND, RAIN CHANCES DON'T CREEP BACK
INTO EVEN OUR GULF WATERS UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS TO TAKE
UNTIL TUESDAY FOR ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MANAGE EVEN SLIGHT CHANCES
OF RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO EMERGE. ANOTHER THING WE'LL NEED
TO WATCH FOR GOING INTO THE NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE RETURN OF ONSHORE
FLOW IS POTENTIAL FOR NIGHTTIME FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS. LIKE THE
TARDY/NON-EXISTENT RAIN CHANCES, I ALSO ANTICIPATE ANY ISSUES HERE
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SHOW BACK UP. 850 MB RH LOOKS TO MAKE A
PRETTY SOLID RETURN ON MONDAY, SO LOW STRATUS SEEMS LIKE A FAIR
BET TO BE BACK IN THE PICTURE MONDAY NIGHT. BUT DEWPOINTS DO SEEM
A BIT SLOWER TO REBOUND RELATIVE TO WATER TEMPS. AND, GIVEN THAT
I'M ONLY FORECASTING CONDITIONS NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL, I
DON'T EXPECT THOSE WATER TEMPS TO FALL SIGNIFICANTLY. IT LOOKS TO
TAKE UNTIL TUESDAY FOR DEWPOINTS TO RISE HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE ME
THINK ABOUT SEA FOG. OF COURSE, ONCE WE GET THERE...WE'LL HAVE
THOSE DEWPOINTS, WINDS OUT OF A FAIRLY FAVORABLE ESE DIRECTION,
BUT POSSIBLY A BIT TOO STRONG FOR SERIOUS FOG DEVELOPMENT. SO
MIXED SIGNALS, BUT DEFINITELY SOME INDICATIONS THAT WE COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY COASTAL FOG BACK IN THE PICTURE.
AND NOW THAT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT TUESDAY, WHICH IS CHRISTMAS EVE,
WE NOW START DEALING WITH THE QUESTIONS ABOUT THE HOLIDAY
FORECAST. AND, HA! HA! THAT DAY IS BEYOND THE SCOPE OF MY
FORECAST, SO YOU CAN'T MAKE ME TALK ABOUT IT! BUT REALLY, I WILL
PUT DOWN A FEW WORDS, AS LONG AS WE ALL AGREE THAT WE CAN'T GET
TOO DEEP INTO SPECIFICS THIS FAR OUT. BRINGING BACK THE SA TABLE
POINT FROM EARLIER, THE ENSEMBLE MEANS DON'T SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL
FOR ANYTHING BEYOND THE 10TH OR 90TH PERCENTILE, WHICH IMPLIES
THAT WE SHOULDN'T DEVIATE A LOT FROM CLIMO HERE. BUT, JUST BECAUSE
WE'RE NOT DEVIATING A LOT DOESN'T MEAN WE'RE NOT GOING TO DEVIATE
AT ALL. ONE GLANCE AT THE CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK MAKES THAT
ABUNDANTLY CLEAR IN THAT THERE IS RED EVERYWHERE. JUST...ALL OVER
THE PLACE. THIS OUTLOOK CLEARLY SHOWS A TENDENCY TOWARDS ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES EXCEPT FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA (EQUAL CHANCES) AND A SMALL CORNER OF NORTHWESTERN ALASKA
(THE LONE BIT OF BLUE ON THIS MAP).
ANOTHER WAY OF LOOKING AT IT IS TAKING A LOOK AT THE LREF
CLUSTERING DATA. FOR FUNSIES, LET'S TALK ABOUT MIN TEMPS ON
CHRISTMAS DAY. THE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON
THIS PARTICULAR MORNING IS...THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. THERE IS A
PRETTY TIGHT SPREAD AROUND THE LREF ENSEMBLE. FOR EVEN MORE
FUNSIES, I SLID THE CLUSTERING DOWN TO FOCUS ON THE COLDEST
EXTREMES OF THE GUIDANCE - JUST GRABBING REAL ROCK BOTTOM TEMPS.
AND THAT GOT US ALL THE WAY DOWN TO...39 AT CROCKETT. 40S AND 50S
ELSEWHERE. AND THAT'S THE EXTREME COLD END OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. SO...EITHER THE GEFS, CANADIAN, AND EURO ENSEMBLES ARE
ALL WAY TOO UNDERDISPERSIVE AND THERE'LL BE A SNOWY CHRISTMAS
MIRACLE IN THE WORKS OR...YOU KNOW...IT'S JUST GOING TO BE A WARM
HOLIDAY FOR US. LAST I CHECKED WE WEREN'T ON THE HALLMARK CHANNEL,
SO I'M GONNA PUT MY MONEY ON THE WARMTH.
AVIATION
(18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
CIGS SHOULD SCATTER AND LIFT THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS LATER TODAY. THIS EVENING, FOG AND LOW
CIGS WILL FILL IN ONCE AGAIN, STARTING ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND
SPREADING INLAND AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LIFR AND VLIFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN MOST AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. AREAS
FURTHER INLAND (KCLL AND KUTS) MIGHT SEE THE LOWEST FLIGHT LEVELS
OCCUR LATER DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH KCLL AROUND SUNRISE, PUSHING A LINE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH SE TEXAS DURING THE DAY. THESE SHOWERS MAY BRING SOME
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. OTHERWISE, FOG/CIGS SHOULD LARGELY
CLEAR/LIFT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON, RETURNING TO MVFR/VFR
LEVELS.
03
MARINE
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AND LIKELY
MOST/ALL OF TOMORROW MORNING. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF DENSE FOG
ARE LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS. THE FOG
THREAT WILL FINALLY BE PUT TO REST BUT THE NEXT COLD FRONT
BRINGING SOME DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL BEHIND THE
FRONT, AND SMALL CRAFT WILL WANT TO EXERCISE CAUTION. THOSE WINDS
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY THURSDAY. LOOK FOR A REINFORCING FRONT
TO PUSH THROUGH AROUND THE END OF THE WEEK OR START OF THE
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 62 68 39 60 / 0 70 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 63 74 46 64 / 10 60 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 63 71 50 61 / 0 30 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR TXZ199-200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR TXZ436>439.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR GMZ330-335-350-355.
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....LUCHS
AVIATION...03
MARINE...LUCHS
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