976
FXUS64 KHGX 181855
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1255 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
TODAY'S COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING IT WAY THROUGH THE HOUSTON
AREA, PRODUCING BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SE TEXAS. THIS FRONT
SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH COLD AND DRY AIR
FILLING IN BEHIND IT. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S SOUTH OF
I-10, WITH A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS NEAR THE COAST REACHING THE LOWER
80S DUE TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING. AREAS FURTHER NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD SEE HIGHS TODAY CAP OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. SHORT-
RANGE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING LOW CLOUDS FORMING OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SE TEXAS TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT COOLING AND THUS
PULL TEMPERATURES UP A TAD OVERNIGHT. LOWS FOR EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING WILL BE IN IN THE UPPER 30S/40S.
WITH RIDING OVER MEXICO AND A MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ALOFT. CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY DECREASE DURING THE DAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER TEXAS. WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AND CAA STILL IN
PLACE, HIGHS FOR THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD COOLER DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER,
THOUGH LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S/40S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
FRIDAY AND THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND LOOK TO CONTINUE TO BE
DOMINATED BY THIS POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS AS BOTH FORECAST HIGH AND
LOW TEMPERATURES SLIDE A LITTLE BIT EACH DAY. THIS IS A FAIRLY
HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST, PARTICULARLY AT NIGHT AS AN INCREASINGLY
CLEAR SKY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS WILL MAKE FOR SOME REAL GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
SETUPS. INDEED, WITH THE NBM MEDIAN COLDER THAN THE DETERMINISTIC
NBM, I AGAIN WENT WITH A MEDIAN-HEAVY MIX OF THE TWO. AFTERNOON
HIGHS HAVE A BIT OF QUESTION ABOUT THEM AS WE'LL GET A BIT OF A
BATTLE BETWEEN INCOMING COLD ADVECTION AND FULL HEATING POTENTIAL
FROM A SUNNY SKY. BUT...WELL...WE ARE RIGHT UP ON THE SOLSTICE, SO
SOLAR INSOLATION IS LITERALLY AS MINIMAL AS IT CAN GET FOR A FULLY
SUNNY DAY. SO, I'M QUITE FINE GOING ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS.
AS THIS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE THE COLDEST STRETCH OF THE WEEK,
IT'S WORTHWHILE TO ASK IF WE'RE GOING TO BE COOLING TO ANY
CONCERNING LEVELS. IN REFERENCE TO CLIMO? NAH, NOT REALLY. WE'LL
DEFINITELY BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE, BUT WE WILL BE IN THAT
MIDDLE MASS ABOVE THE 10TH PERCENTILE. LOOK FOR US TO BE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF A DECEMBER DAY FOR HERE, BUT NOT UNUSUALLY SO. NOW,
IT IS STILL MID-LATE DECEMBER, SO YOU'RE TOTALLY REASONABLE IN
ASKING ABOUT FREEZING TEMPS EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF "EXTREME COLD"
(BY OUR STANDARDS, ANYWAY). WAY UP NORTH IN HOUSTON COUNTY (NOT
THE CITY!) AND MADISON COUNTY, FREEZING TEMPS LOOK PRETTY LIKELY
IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE I'D
EXPECT MAINLY A BRIEF, LIGHT FREEZE, IT IS STILL PRETTY HIGH
CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE METEOROLOGICAL SETUP AND THE STRONG NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR REACHING FREEZING. I'VE GOT LOWS IN THE 31-32
BALLPARK THAT NIGHT, THOUGH I FIND IT RESPONSIBLE TO NOTE THAT THE
NBM MEDIAN HAS LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S IN THIS AREA, WHILE MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE AREA NORTH OF THE HOUSTON METRO FALL TO WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO OF FREEZING. SO, WHILE I'M SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC HERE,
THERE IS SOME DOWNWARD ROOM IN THIS CHILL.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR LOW TEMPS, AS WE'LL STILL BE ON
THE DOWNGLIDE THURSDAY NIGHT. AND FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND,
THE GRADUAL RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL
LIFT OUR TEMPERATURE FLOOR. THEY'LL STILL BE CHILLY NIGHTS FOR
SURE BRACKETING FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SURE, BUT THAT IS THE ONE NIGHT
THAT STANDS OUT WITH A DECENT THREAT FOR A FREEZE. SATURDAY NIGHT
COULD WELL SEE SOME SCATTERED SPOTS HIT THE FREEZING MARK AS WELL,
THOUGH IT WILL STRONGLY DEPEND ON HOW ONSHORE WINDS VEER, AND HOW
QUICKLY LOW-BOOSTING MOISTURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY BACK IN AS FAR AS
THE PINEY WOODS.
A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE HOLD FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND IN THE
LEADUP TO CHRISTMAS DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST FAR
ENOUGH TO RETURN ONSHORE FLOW, BUT LARGELY CONTINUE TO REIGN OVER
OUR WEATHER IN THE NEW WEEK. HOWEVER, TOWARDS MID-WEEK, A FAIRLY
POTENT CLIPPER LOW LOOKS TO SHOOT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER, AND
WILL TRAIL A COLD FRONT BEHIND IT DOWN THE PLAINS. NOW, WHILE IT
LOOKS INITIALLY PRETTY TOUGH FOR A CLIPPER, IT SHOULD BE WEAKENING
AS IT GETS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. IF NOT FOR AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS RIGHT BEHIND IT, I PROBABLY WOULDN'T
MENTION IT AT ALL. HOWEVER, THIS TROUGH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
SUPPORT, AND THE FADING BOUNDARY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT
THAT WE COULD SEE A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON CHRISTMAS EVE. NOT A WASHOUT FORECAST BY
ANY MEANS, BUT YOU MAY WANT TO STAY TUNED FOR IF YOU'LL WANT TO
HAVE A RAIN JACKET OR UMBRELLA WITH YOU TO BE ON THE SAFE SIDE FOR
ANY CHRISTMAS EVE ACTIVITIES. AND YEAH, I'M SORRY...UNLESS SANTA
IS COMING THROUGH WITH A SHOCKING SURPRISE, IT'S GONNA BE RAIN AND
NOT SNOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING IT'S WAY THROUGH SE TEXAS,
PRODUCING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AS THIS LINE
PASSES, CIGS/VIS WILL BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS, LIFTING BACK
TO VFR LEVELS IN IT'S WAKE AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN AND DAYTIME
HEATING LIFTS CLOUD DECKS. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WITH THE FROPA
WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY MVFR CIGS
MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, CLEARING
OUT AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE.
03
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
THE INCOMING COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE HOUSTON
METRO AT 1 PM. SO, WHILE VISIBILITY HAS LARGELY IMPROVED OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS ON ACCOUNT OF DAYTIME SUN, A TRUE END TO THE FOG
THREAT IS SHORTLY ON ITS WAY WHEN THE FRONT PASSES THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS, ALONG WITH A
WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE. AND FOLLOWING
THE FRONT, EXPECT WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO NORTHWESTERLY AND
STRENGTHEN INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. INDEED, WINDS NOW LOOK STRONG
ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THIS IS A VERY LOW END
ADVISORY, WITH WINDS JUST BARELY EXPECTED TO REACH THE THRESHOLD,
BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGH PROBABILITY THAT WE'LL SEE SEVERAL
HOURS TONIGHT WITH WINDS JUST A LITTLE ABOVE 20 KNOTS.
OFFSHORE FLOW MODERATES, BUT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE VEERING MORE EASTERLY, AND THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY INTO THE NEW WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 40 63 40 64 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 46 65 45 66 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 51 62 50 62 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....LUCHS
AVIATION...03
MARINE...LUCHS
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