882
FGUS74 KHGX 191626
ESFHGX
200425-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
1026 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS)
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE BRAZOS RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR THE
BRAZOS RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS.
THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.
IN THE TABLE BELOW, THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE BRAZOS RIVER AT RICHMOND HAS A FLOOD
STAGE OF 45 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE RICHMOND
FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 16.9 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID 12/18/2024 - 03/18/2025
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
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BRAZOS RIVER
BRYAN 52.0 10.7 11.0 13.4 13.9 14.7 19.0 20.6 22.9 25.8
EAST YEGUA CREEK
DIME BOX 12.0 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.3 8.6 9.6
MIDDLE YEGUA CREEK
DIME BOX 10.0 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 4.9 10.2
DAVIDSON CREEK
LYONS 16.0 2.7 2.8 2.8 5.8 8.4 10.6 11.9 15.2 16.9
NAVASOTA RIVER
NORMANGEE 15.0 3.6 5.3 6.5 8.3 10.2 12.1 13.9 14.8 16.7
MILL CREEK
BELLVILLE 20.0 3.0 3.2 5.3 6.7 7.6 9.1 10.4 11.9 13.8
LOWER BRAZOS RIVER
HEMPSTEAD 50.0 12.7 13.6 16.1 16.4 18.2 20.7 24.7 28.6 31.8
SAN FELIPE 122.5 94.2 94.6 96.0 96.5 97.5 98.4 101.0 103.4 106.4
RICHMOND 45.0 11.2 12.2 15.2 15.9 16.9 19.7 24.0 27.2 31.6
ROSHARON 43.0 7.9 8.4 12.0 12.4 13.8 16.7 22.3 26.2 30.7
WEST COLUMBIA 23.0 1.7 1.7 2.7 2.9 3.4 4.9 8.6 11.4 15.2
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS, THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED.
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT: HTTPS://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/LONG_RANGE.PHP?WFO=HGX
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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