074
FXUS64 KHGX 200515
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1115 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES. CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO
DECREASE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING, THOUGH OFFSHORE FLOW AND CAA SHOULD
KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS SE TEXAS. LITTLE TO NO CLOUD
COVER AND DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT SHOULD PUT LOWS FOR FRIDAY
MORNING IN UPPER 30S/40S, SIMILAR TO THAT OF THIS MORNING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY ON FRIDAY. AS IT DOES, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN
OVER THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER WESTERN TEXAS WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT, INVIGORATING CAA. HIGHS DURING THE DAY WON'T SEE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGE, STILL LARGELY IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH, WITH CLEAR SKIES AND EVEN DRIER AIR FUNNELING
INTO THE AREA, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE COLDER OVERNIGHT. LOWS FOR
SATURDAY MORNING, WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BRAZOS
VALLEY/PINEY WOODS AREA FOR SATURDAY MORNING. THESE CHANCES ARE
HIGHEST (>90%) IN AREAS AROUND MADISONVILLE TO CROCKETT, WHICH COULD
SEE TEMPERATURES DROP TO 28 DEGREES. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY NEW FREEZE
WATCHES/WARNINGS, AS THESE AREAS HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED THEIR
FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON AND TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE HARD FREEZE LEVELS.
03
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKING EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP TO KEEP COOL/DRY/QUIET WEATHER IN
PLACE OVER SE TX THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. AS THIS SURFACE HIGH
MOVES FURTHER E/NE, ONSHORE WINDS ARE SET TO RETURN TO THE AREA BY
SUN...STRENGTHENING SUN NIGHT/MON AS PRESSURES FALL OVER THE SOUTH-
ERN PLAINS. THE ENSUING WAA WILL BRING INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS TO THE CWFA DURING THE START OF NEXT WEEK. BUT, WE
PROBABLY WON'T HAVE ANY MENTION OF POPS UNTIL LATE MON NIGHT (MAIN-
LY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS/COAST) AT BEST.
AT THE MID/UPPER LEVELS, THE EASTWARD PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE ALOFT BY MON/MON EVEN-
ING. BUT BY TUES, LOOK FOR THE PASSAGE OF A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED TROF
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE SOME DECENT
POPS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES HERE FOR TUES/
TUES NIGHT(CHRISTMAS EVE). AND SO, WE MIGHT BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THINGS BY WEDS (CHRISTMAS DAY) SHOULD THESE RUNS VERIFY. WHILE THE
AIR MASS COULD BE DRIER ON WEDS WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO
LINGER. 41
AVIATION
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
FOG HAS EMERGED AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT ISSUE IN COASTAL AREAS BELOW
GALVESTON BAY, AND SO HAVE CONTINUED THE EARLIER AMENDMENT MADE TO
LBX TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONG REDUCTION IN VSBY. OTHER TERMINALS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR OR HIGH MVFR AT WORST, WITH MUCH MORE MODEST
VSBY REDUCTIONS INTRODUCED FOR CXO, SGR, AND GLS.
AFTER FOG DISSIPATES THIS MORNING, FORECAST WILL BE DETERMINED BY
MODULATION OF WINDS, WITH CALM OR LIGHT/VRB BECOMING NORTHERLIES,
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SOME GUSTINESS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 202 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
GENERALLY LIGHT OFFSHORE (N/NE) WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...WITH WINDS BECOMING EAST THEN SOUTHEAST LATE SAT INTO SUN.
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE SUN SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE WINDS
AND SEAS HEADING INTO THE START OF THE WEEK...AND CAUTION(SCEC) FLAGS
MIGHT BE NEEDED AT TIMES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. 41
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 41 63 34 60 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 47 66 39 59 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 51 65 46 57 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...LUCHS
MARINE...41
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