148
FXUS64 KHGX 201717
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1117 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-10 AND WEST OF I-45 ARE DEALING WITH DECREASED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
IS A BIT SURPRISING DUE TO US BEING IN A POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS, BUT
NOT ENTIRELY SURPRISING SINCE WE DIDN'T SEE A BIG DROPOFF IN DEW
POINTS BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING GOING INTO
YESTERDAY EVENING PAIRED WITH LIGHT WINDS, SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE
ABLE TO DROP NEAR THE DEW POINTS (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST)
BRINGING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS TO NEAR 0°F...AND THUS WE HAVE FOG!
THIS FOG MAY BECOME DENSE AT TIMES, BUT WILL DISSIPATE BY 9AM OR SO.
ALSO OCCURING EARLY THIS MORNING IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. AS IT CONTINUES ON ITS EASTWARD TREK, IT'LL HELP PUSH THROUGH
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT LATER TODAY LEAVING EVEN COOLER AND DRIER
AIR IN ITS WAKE. WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND IT, WE'LL SEE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. THERE WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW FOR GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AS A ~30-35 KT LLJ SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON...SO DON'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20-25
MPH LATER TODAY ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-45.
BY SUNSET, PW VALUES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE
(~0.32"). WITH CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WIND, AND PLENTIFUL DRY AIR
PREVAILING, WE'LL HAVE SUFFICIENT CONDITIONS FOR MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL
COOLING ALLOWING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT'S TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
LOW 30S TO LOW 40S. PORTIONS OF THE BRAZOS VALLEY/PINEY WOODS ARE
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A LIGHT FREEZE, SO BE SURE TO PRACTICE COLD
WEATHER SAFETY IN THESE AREAS. IT'S VERY FITTING THAT A COLD NIGHT
WELCOMES US OFFICIALLY INTO ASTRONOMICAL WINTER! THE WINTER SOLSTICE
OCCURS AT 3:21 AM CST ON EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, AND IT'LL CERTAINLY
FEEL LIKE WINTER IF YOU'RE OUTSIDE AT THAT TIME! IN THE DAYTIME
HOURS, SATURDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND RELATIVELY CHILLY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. BY LATE SATURDAY, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ONSHORE
FLOW TO RETURN. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE GRADUAL INCREASE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE MAIN IMPACT
THAT THIS WILL HAVE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS 3-5°F WARMER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT COMPARED TO FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
BATISTE
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST RESULTING IN A RETURN AND INCREASE
IN SOUTHEAST WINDS. THIS WARMER FLOW WILL HELP TO BOOST SUNDAY'S AFTERNOON
HIGHS INTO THE 60S, RAISE SUNDAY NIGHT'S LOWS INTO A 40S/50S RANGE AND
GET THE AREA BACK INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY. MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT IS
WHEN WE EXPECT TO SEE SOME SHOWERS RETURN TO PARTS OF OUR GULF WATERS,
AND IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING TIME PERIOD
WILL BE THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AREA RAIN CHANCES CURRENTLY LOOK TO PEAK
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A DRY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SETTING UP LOOKS
TO BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
DURING THIS MORE ACTIVE PATTERN, GENERALLY EXPECT LOWS IN THE 50S AND
HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD. 42
AVIATION
(18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1007 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS, OCCASIONALLY GUSTY, CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING, THOUGH A LLJ
IN THE VICINITY MAY PRODUCE SOME AMOUNT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
TONIGHT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WOULD LIKELY BE STRONGEST AT KUTS,
THOUGH IT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER TAF THRESHOLDS. WINDS SLOWLY VEER
EASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
03
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE EASTERLY
OVER THE WEEKEND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. CAUTION FLAGS MAY
BE NEEDED AT TIMES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IS AROUND TUESDAY
OR TUESDAY NIGHT. 42
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 65 33 60 37 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 67 39 59 40 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 65 45 56 51 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BATISTE
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...03
MARINE...42
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