797
FXUS64 KHGX 202016
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
216 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
PUSH A SLOG OF COOLER, DRIER AIR INTO SE TEXAS FOR TONIGHT. WITH
CAA REINVIGORATED AND CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD, CONDITIONS WILL BE
COOLER THAN THIS MORNING. LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING, WILL BE IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE BRAZOS VALLEY/PINEY WOODS AREA FOR SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH LOWS AROUND MADISONVILLE TO CROCKETT FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 20S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPANNING THE PLAINS TRACKS
EASTWARD ON SATURDAY, SLOWLY VEERING WINDS EASTERLY. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SE TEXAS WILL BE A TAD COOLER THAT THAT OF
TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/60S. THE GRADUAL LOSS OF CAA
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE A TAD WARMER OVERNIGHT, THROUGH
LOWS FOR SUNDAY MORNING WILL STILL BE IN THE 30S/40S.
03
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF DRY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. RETURN
FLOW AND THEREFORE, WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS DIFFERENT DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH. MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SE TX IN THE
CHRISTMAS EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY TIME FRAME. LATEST DETERMINISTIC
MODELS SHOW A GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THIS FROPA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT - WEDNESDAY MORNING (CHRISTMAS DAY). A HEALTHY CHANNEL OF
DEEP MOISTURE WILL PREVAIL AS SOUTHERLY WARM AIR SURGES
INLAND/NORTHWARD. DEEP MOISTURE (PWS INTO THE 1.1 - 1.4 INCH
RANGE) AND DECENT INSTABILITY AT LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH RAINFALL RATES WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. WPC HIGHLIGHTS A
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF SE TX IN
THEIR DAY 5 OUTLOOK (TUESDAY, DECEMBER 24TH). BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE, THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING, LEAVING THE REGION DRY AND COOLER FOR THE REST OF THE
CHRISTMAS DAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY, THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE
MESSY/ACTIVE AS A SERIES OF TROUGHS/SURFACE LOWS DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN COAST/ROCKIES AND PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS. OVERALL, EXPECT RAIN AND STORM CHANCES MOST OF THE WEEK AS
THESE DISTURBANCES/FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVE THROUGH.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, A SLOW WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID/LATE DECEMBER
STANDARDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
(MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S). HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 70S.
JM
AVIATION
(18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1007 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS, OCCASIONALLY GUSTY, CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING, THOUGH A LLJ
IN THE VICINITY MAY PRODUCE SOME AMOUNT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
TONIGHT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WOULD LIKELY BE STRONGEST AT KUTS,
THOUGH IT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER TAF THRESHOLDS. WINDS SLOWLY VEER
EASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
03
MARINE
ISSUED AT 207 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST REMAINS IN
CONTROL, RESULTING IN OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. A
COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST
NEXT WEEK. AS RESULT, EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND THEN AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. CAUTION FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER TUESDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
JM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 33 60 36 65 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 40 59 39 64 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 45 57 51 64 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GMZ350-355-370-375.
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...03
MARINE...JM
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