701
FXUS64 KHGX 212321
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
521 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
A DRY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS
WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD
TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, SO HAVE GONE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN MOST GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD
BOTTOM OUT NEAR THE FREEZING MARK FOR ROUGHLY THE NE HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
THE AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF SE TEXAS TOMORROW
ALLOWING FOR SOUTHEAST FLOW TO RETURN WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL. EXPECT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS TOMORROW AND
MAX TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER AS COMPARED TO TODAY. TOMORROW
NIGHT WE WILL SEE MIN TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF SOME PATCHY INLAND FOG EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS
WEST/SOUTHWEST AREAS.
WOOD
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ON CHRISTMAS EVE
INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY MORNING.
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ENDING EARLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY (WEDNESDAY),
LEADING TO A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY.
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM AS
DIFFERENT SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
SURFACE BOUNDARIES MOVE THROUGH. DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND GULF MOISTURE
SURGE INLAND. THE BEST RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ARRIVE ON CHRISTMAS
EVE (TUESDAY) AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVE THROUGH. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
TERMS OF TIMING, THOUGH THEY DIFFER A BIT IN STRENGTH/QPF. AS OF
NOW, EXPECT INCREASING RAIN/STORM CHANCES AHEAD AND ALONG THE
FROPA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER
RISK IS LOW AT THIS TIME; HOWEVER, GIVEN DECENT INSTABILITY AND
LIFTING, A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS, THUS
MINOR STREET FLOODING/PONDING OF WATER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.5 - 1.5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. CHRISTMAS DAY WILL START OFF WET AND
CLOUDY; HOWEVER, THE REST OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL BE
RAIN-FREE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S. PATTERN ALOFT
CONTINUES TO BE ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE
CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN AND STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL; RESULTING
IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
JM
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 519 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. MORE CONSISTENTLY E/SE TO SE WINDS
ESTABLISH IN THE MORNING, INCREASING TO 5-10 KTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 137 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL
TRANSITION TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A FROPA ENTERS THE GULF WATER
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING (CHRISTMAS DAY). AREAS OF FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND AFTER MID-WEEK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER TUESDAY AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVE THROUGH. CAUTION FLAGS
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES.
JM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 34 65 51 74 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 37 64 50 72 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 48 64 58 69 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...LUCHS
MARINE...JM
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