727
FXUS64 KHGX 141022
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
422 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
..NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
WE'RE ALL HERE TO SEE WHAT'S HAPPENING WITH THIS WEAK COASTAL
TROUGH DOWN ON THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TONIGHT, RIGHT? RIGHT?
BUELLER? OKAY, YES, LOTS OF INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
THERE ARE STILL MANY DETAILS TO IRON OUT FOR SPECIFICS, BUT FOR
NOW WE CAN SAY THERE IS CONFIDENCE IN A RETURN TO WELL BELOW
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HERE ARE SOME KEY THINGS ABOUT THE
FORECAST:
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND PERHAPS EVEN A
STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THAT
INITIAL FRONT WILL BE IMMEDIATELY REINFORCED BY A SURGE OF COLD
AIR BEHIND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT, USHERING IN A PERIOD OF
WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING WILL BE LIKELY NORTH OF THE
HOUSTON METRO. THE METRO ITSELF APPEARS MORE UNCERTAIN, WITH A
BLEND OF MODELS SHOWING A PROBABILITY OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS IN
THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE COLD, BUT SHOW
ONLY ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF FREEZING TEMPS.
- INTENSITY OF THE COLD AIR IS ANOTHER OPEN QUESTION. THERE IS A
CLEAR SIGNAL FOR POTENTIAL HARD FREEZES NORTH OF THE HOUSTON
METRO. AND WHILE SUCH A SIGNAL EXISTS FOR THE METRO ITSELF, IT
IS MUCH MORE MUDDLED WITH NBM PROBABILITY OF A HARD FREEZE ONLY
MAXING OUT AROUND 20 PERCENT.
- AS ALWAYS WITH POTENTIAL EVENTS IN THE LONG TERM, THE KEY IS TO
CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK IN FOR THE LATEST AS WE DRAW NEARER TO
THE EVENT. NOW IS A GOOD TIME TO CHECK IN WITH THOSE COLD
WEATHER PLANS AND THINK ABOUT HOW TO BE PREPARED IF FUTURE
FORECASTS BRING HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF HIGH IMPACT COLD.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-SOUTH STILL PREVAILS FOR TODAY'S
WEATHER, BUT OUR FOCUS WILL GRADUALLY TURN DOWN THE COAST FOR THE
FORMATION OF A COASTAL TROUGH. ITS STRENGTH AND TRACK WILL BE THE
PRIMARY DRIVER FOR RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.
BUT FIRST, TODAY. WE'RE STARTING THIS MORNING NEAR OR A BIT COOLER
THAN AVERAGE. GIVEN THE VEIL OF HIGH CLOUD COVER ALREADY
STREAMING IN OVERHEAD, I WOULDN'T EXPECT ANYTHING TO CHANGE FOR
HIGHS DURING THE DAY, EITHER. FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE MID-50S TO
AROUND 60 TODAY. GIVEN THE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED TO OUR
NORTHEAST, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ROUGHLY EASTERLY OR EVEN MORE
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY, WHICH SHOULD ALSO KEEP DEWPOINTS
DOWN ACROSS THE INLAND BULK OF THE AREA.
TONIGHT, THE HIGH DOESN'T REALLY GO ANYWHERE, BUT IT DOES LOOK GET
SORT OF SQUEEZED/SHEARED OUT, LARGELY TO REPLACED BY A FAIRLY
SIMILAR HIGH DROPPING DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL NOT BE RIDING A RAFT DOWN THE RIVER AS THIS
PATH IS LARGELY JUST A COINCIDENCE...BUT I WOULDN'T BLAME YOU IF
YOU PICTURED IT AS A HUCK FINN CHARACTER MAKING ITS WAY IN.
ALL THIS IS TO SAY THAT WITH A BIT OF A JUMBLE HAPPENING WITH THIS
PREVAILING HIGH, THAT LEAVES ROOM FOR A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH
TO EXERT MORE INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.
BUT...I'M NOT ACTUALLY SURE HOW BIG A DEAL THAT'S GOING TO BE.
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO MOVE THIS TROUGH PRETTY QUICKLY OFF THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST AND OUT OVER THE GULF, PUTTING US ALREADY WEST OF THE
TROUGH AXIS AND LIKELY LARGELY JUST REINFORCING THE PRE-EXISTING
NORTHEAST-EASTERLY FLOW REGIME.
NOW, WHILE SUBTLE, WE DO LOOK TO SEE DEWPOINTS AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER RISE TONIGHT. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO MORE DIRECT ONSHORE FLOW
JUST ALOFT BRINGING IN MOISTURE DIRECTLY TO THE COLUMN, AND
LIKELY MIXING ITS WAY DOWN TO THE SURFACE. BECAUSE OF THIS, I
STILL BRING IN SOME RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, BUT KEEP
THINGS CLOSER TO THE COAST. SO MY MENTION OF "SLIGHT CHANCES" RUNS
ROUGHLY FROM BRENHAM TO CONROE TO LIVINGSTON. "CHANCE" POPS ARE
ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. "LIKELY" POPS ARE LARGELY PINNED
TO AROUND AND COASTWARD OF US-59, SOUTHWEST OF THE HOUSTON
METRO...AND COASTWARD OF THE BELTWAY FROM THERE.
AND THAT'S NOT ALL! EVEN WHERE MY POPS ARE HIGH, THAT ONLY IMPLIES
A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL, WITH A *STRONG*
EMPHASIS ON THE WORD "ANY". BECAUSE EVEN OUR DEEPEST MOISTURE
BRINGS PWATS TO AROUND OR JUST OVER AN INCH, I'M NOT ANTICIPATING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL...I'M JUST MORE CONFIDENT WE'LL GET
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURE-WISE, EXPECT A SHARP COMPRESSION
OF THE DIURNAL RANGE, WITH "WARMER" LOWS TONIGHT, AND COOLER HIGHS
DOWN IN THE (LOW TO) MID-50S.
AS THE TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY OUT OVER THE GULF,
WINDS SHOULD TURN OFFSHORE, AND WHATEVER LIGHT SHOWERS MANAGED TO
PUSH THEIR WAY ONTO THE COAST WILL MOVE ON OFF WHILE CLOUDS
EVENTUALLY BREAK DEEPER INTO THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS IN
THE 30S TO RETURN INLAND OF THE HOUSTON METRO, WHILE THOSE CLOSER
TO THE COAST ARE COOLER, BUT LOOK TO STAY IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
EARLY LONG TERM FORECAST IS OF LESSER CONSEQUENCE RELATIVELY
SPEAKING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY,
PUSHING THE COASTAL/GULF TROUGH DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF, GIVING
US A LULL IN RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES EASTWARD ON FRIDAY,
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGING WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS
WARMS UP HIGHS INTO THE 60S/LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S/50S.
THE FORECAST GOES DOWNHILL FROM HERE ON OUT, ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS
TO TEMPERATURE, AS TEXAS IS PROGGED TO GET SLAMMED WITH COLD
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS BURST OF COLD AIR
INITIALLY COMES FROM A SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHICH
SHOULD PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE BRAZOS VALLEY SOMETIME
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE
FROPA, WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND FILLING IN BEHIND IT AS IT MOVES
OFFSHORE LATER THAT AFTERNOON. LOWS TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY
MORNING ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO BE IN THE 30S/40S, BUT THATS
JUST THE BEGINNING OF THIS COLD SPELL. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE HUDSON BAY (CANADA) WILL PUSH A STRONG 1040-1050MB SURFACE
HIGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY. THIS FRIGID
ARCTIC AIRMASS SHOULD FILL IN ACROSS THE CONUS OVERNIGHT INTO NEXT
WEEK, BRINGING VERY COLD CONDITIONS TO SE TEXAS.
SOME UNCERTAIN REMAIN AS TO THE SPECIFICS WITH THIS COLD AIR MASS,
SO MUCH OF THE NUMBERS YOU SEE CAN CHANGE THESE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT
PRESENT, LOWS TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY & TUESDAY MORNING ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO BE IN THE 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE
COAST. HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS (TEMPS 24 OR LOWER) WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN AREAS NORTH OF I-10, AND ESPECIALLY SO ACROSS THE BRAZOS
VALLEY/PINEY WOODS AREA, WHERE NBM PROBABILITIES SHOW HIGH
CONFIDENCE (70-90% CHANCE) FOR REACHING HARD FREEZE TEMPERATURES.
WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER
TEENS. LREF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES SHOW THAT THERE IS A LOW (30%)
BUT STILL NON-ZERO CHANCE OF WIND CHILLS HITTING SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF OUR CWA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
IN THE MIST OF THESE FRIGID CONDITIONS, A COASTAL TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO FORM NEAR THE DEEP S TEXAS/MEXICO COASTLINE ON MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE AND THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND
INTRODUCES A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. MODELS SHOW -18 TO -
20C AT 500MB OVER OUR AREA BY THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST. DYNAMIC
ENSEMBLE SOUNDINGS UNFORTUNATELY SHOW TOO MUCH SPREAD AT THIS
POINT TO ADD MUCH VALUE, THOUGH NOTABLY IT EMPHASIZES THE DEPTH
OF THIS COLD AIR MASS, KEEPING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
SOUNDING PROFILE CONSISTENTLY BELOW FREEZING ALOFT. IF WE TAKE A
LOOK AT LONG- RANGE DETERMINISTIC FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THEY
INITIALLY START OFF DRIER, BUT SLOWLY SATURATE AS THE DAY
PROGRESS, WITH SOME EVEN SUGGESTING A POSSIBILITY OF A SEEDER-
FEEDER EFFECT. WHILE PWS REMAIN FAIRLY LOW, 700 AND 850MB
FRONTOGENESIS FURTHER ENTERTAIN THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION.
BOTTOM LINE, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE MAY SEE A MIX OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SLEET/SNOW INLAND
DURING THE DAY DUE TO ABOVE-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND
MORESO RAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS ALSO MEANS THAT, PRESENTLY,
NONE OF THIS WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE, THOUGH IF
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO OCCUR INTO THE NIGHT, THEN SNOW MAY
BECOME THE MORE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. REGARDLESS,
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH, SO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST MON JAN 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 06Z PERIOD. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OUT OF THE ENE, BECOMING VARIABLE AT
TIMES. BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FT FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND 01Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 144 PM CST MON JAN 13 2025
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND SEAS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 3 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR
THE BAYS, SOME SPOTS COULD SEE LOW WATER LEVELS DURING LOW TIDE.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRIEFLY RETURN FRIDAY, TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX ON SATURDAY, POSSIBLY REACHING THE
COAST BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS
AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. IN
GENERAL, CAUTION FLAGS AND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERIODS OF
SHOWERS MID WEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
24
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 57 43 54 41 / 0 10 30 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 56 45 52 44 / 0 10 50 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 54 48 55 47 / 0 20 50 40
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
GMZ330-350-355-370-375.
SHORT TERM...LUCHS
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...24
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