622
FXUS64 KHGX 152122
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
322 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS TX, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (COASTAL LOW) OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TRACKS EAST TO SOUTHEAST, AND COOLER DRIER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, SKIES WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT, STARTING ACROSS THE
BRAZOS VALLEY AND PINEY WOODS REGION LATE TONIGHT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING BETWEEN THE
LOW TO MID 30S OVER THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND PINEY WOODS REGION, THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR THE REST OF THE INLAND PORTIONS, AND THE
MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
TRANQUIL AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN. EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY, ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WARMER, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S INLAND AND IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE COASTS.
24
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE THE PLEASANT WEATHER/WARMING TREND FROM
THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS TOPPING OUT FROM NEAR 70F ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PINEY WOODS. HOWEVER,
AFTER FRIDAY THINGS GET A LOT MORE INTERESTING AS THE LEADING COLD
FRONT IS A BIT FASTER THAN PRIOR FORECASTS MOVING OFF THE COAST BY
EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR AND BREEZY
NORTH WINDS FOR THE REGION, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
REBOUND SOME DURING THE DAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
THEN... THE BOTTOM DROPS OUT FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS THE ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO SURGE INTO SOUTHEAST TX WITH A RETURN
TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING FROM ROUGHLY A COLUMBUS TO
LIVINGSTON LINE AND POINTS NORTH. DESPITE SUNNY SKIES, SUNDAY
WILL BE NEARLY 15-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY WITH BRISK NORTH
WINDS. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS LIKE QUITE A MESS, WITH STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW COLD IT WILL ACTUALLY GET. THE NBM HAS HELD
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH LOWER TO MID 20S F FOR MULTIPLE NIGHTS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I10, AND UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30F EVEN ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FORTUNATELY MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS EACH
AFTERNOON- AT LEAST THAT IS WHAT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING FOR NOW.
AN EXCEPTION MAY BE THE FAR NORTH FROM B/CS TO CROCKETT WHERE WE
MAY STAY NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ALL DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS CYCLE
LOOKS TO STAY ENTRENCHED INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. MULTIPLE CYCLES OF
COLD AIR ADVISORIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED AS WE NEAR THE EVENT WITH
WIND CHILLS IN THE LOWER 20S F AND TEENS EACH MORNING.
THE BIGGER QUESTION REMAINS 'WILL WE SEE SNOW, ICE OR COLD RAIN?'
PARTICULARLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. MODELS
REMAIN PERSISTENT IN BRINGING AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY, WHICH ALMOST CERTAINLY (LOOKING AT
FORECAST TEMPERATURES) WOULD FALL AS LIGHT SNOW OR A WINTERY MIX.
IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD TRANSITION BETWEEN PRIMARY WINTER
PRECIPITATION AT MANY SITES THROUGH THE DAY. I WOULDN'T TRY TO PIN
DOWN THE DETAILS OF ALL OF THIS JUST YET- GIVEN IT REMAINS 6 DAYS
OUT AND THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES COULD EVOLVE QUITE DIFFERENTLY
THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED. THAT BEING SAID, IT IS ABOUT A 50/50
FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE SOME SORT OF FROZEN OR
FREEZING PRECIPITATION BETWEEN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
STAY TUNED!
EVANS
MARINE
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE GRADUALLY TONIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW OVER
THE WESTERN GULF TRACKS EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND COOLER DRIER AIR
PUSHES INTO SE TX. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
AND SEAS GENERALLY BETWEEN 3 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. CAUTIONS FLAGS WOULD REPLACE THE
ADVISORIES AND COULD BE IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON.
ONSHORE FLOW BRIEFLY RETURNS FRIDAY, TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX ON SATURDAY MORNING,
POSSIBLY PUSHING OFF THE COAST BEFORE NOON. STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS REINFORCING COLD AIR PUSHES ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS COLD AIR WILL RESULT IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH LOWS POTENTIALLY IN THE 30S OVER THE BAYS
AND NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
NORTHERN TX AND A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF. WIND
GUSTS TO GALE STRENGTH AND SEAS OF AROUND 10 FEET IS POSSIBLE. THE
COASTAL LOW COULD BRING IN A SURGE IN MOISTURE, WHICH COULD BRING IN
SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR SOME COASTAL AREAS. CONFIDENCE IS
STILL LOW RIGHT NOW AS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS.
IN GENERAL, EXPECT CAUTION FLAGS AND ADVISORIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW WATERS LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE PERSISTENT OFFSHORE WINDS.
24
AVIATION
18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS A SYSTEM OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SUPPLY LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF MVFR VIS/CIGS,
MAINLY FOR SITES SOUTH OF CXO. LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING, RAINFALL WILL EBB FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH MUCH OF THE REGION UNDER CLEAR
SKIES BY SUNRISE. EXPECT LIGHT N WINDS TONIGHT INTO THU.
24
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 35 62 40 67 / 0 0 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 39 62 42 67 / 20 0 0 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 46 58 50 64 / 40 0 0 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR GMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ350-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ370-375.
SHORT TERM...COTTO (24)
LONG TERM....EVANS
AVIATION...COTTO (24)
MARINE...COTTO (24)
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