772
FXUS64 KHGX 180500
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1100 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
BROUGHT DOWN MAXT A FEW DEGREES AS CLOUD COVER HAS INHIBITED SURFACE
HEATING. DRIZZLE AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. DOPPLER RADAR IS CURRENTLY SHOWING A LINE OF VERY
LIGHT REFLECTIVITY BISECTING THE REGION FROM SW TO NE. MOST OF THIS
IS LIKELY VIRGA AS PRECIPITATION ALOFT ENCOUNTERS DRY AIR CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE AND EVAPORATES.
TONIGHT WILL FEATURE PATCHY FOG AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY (AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER, NOT THE BEST FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT, BUT RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO
PATCHY INSTANCES). LOWS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE
BRAZOS VALLEY AND PINEY WOODS INCREASING TO THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE
COAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SE TEXAS OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS SATURDAY (SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE MAIN EVENT IN THE
LONG-TERM, AND THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS). ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED IN THE COLLEGE STATION AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT,
MOVING OFFSHORE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SUNNY SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL HELP LESSEN THE EFFECTS OF THE CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. BROUGHT
HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, BUT
STILL LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S NORTH OF I-10 TO
LOW 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10.
CLEAR SKIES AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE PINEY WOODS AND BRAZOS VALLEY AND
INTO THE 30S CLOSER TO THE METRO AND COASTAL PLAINS. A LIGHT FREEZE
WILL BE LIKELY NORTH OF I-10 AND WEST OF THE METRO.
FOR THOSE OF YOU CONTINUING ON TO THE MUCH ANTICIPATED LONG-TERM
FORECAST DISCUSSION, GRAB YOUR BROWN PAPER BAG AND TAKE DEEP BREATHS.
ADAMS
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
*** WINTER STORM AND HARD FREEZE RISK FOR MON - WED ***
OVERVIEW: WE CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH HARD
FREEZE CONDITIONS AND THE PROSPECT OF WINTER PRECIPITATION TO IMPACT
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED REGARDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS SE TX, THE FORECAST IS
STILL SUBJECT TO SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN FORECAST TEMPERATURE AS WELL
AS THE TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE.
NONETHELESS, THOSE ACROSS SE TX SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE PROSPECT OF
MULTIPLE NIGHTS OF SUB-FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO WINTER PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. IMPACTS OF ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY, AS TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET HIGH ENOUGH ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MELTING BEFORE A HARD FREEZE
DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT.
A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTED COLD
FRONT. PERSISTENT CAA DRIVEN BY A ~1040MB HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL
CONFINE HIGHS TO THE MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE DAY WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 25 MPH AT TIMES. OUR FIRST NIGHT IN A MULTI-DAY PERIOD OF
SUBFREEZING ROWS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOW 20S FOR
THE NORTHERN ZONES, THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS GREATER HOUSTON, AND
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
A COMPLEX FORECAST SETUP REMAINS ON THE CARDS TO BEGIN THE WEEK. A
BROAD MIDLEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY, INVIGORATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK COASTAL LOW/TROUGH
ALONG THE TX COASTAL BEND. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO A BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS TROUGH, WITH THE LATEST
GFS/EC SOLUTIONS BOTH IN AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A DEEPER SHORTWAVE. AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PUSHES SLOWLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST ON
MONDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. WITH THE COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, IT
IS LIKELY THAT THIS WILL ULTIMATELY MANIFEST AT A MULTI-MODEL
PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH CHANGE(S) IN TYPE OR PERIODS OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION THAT STRETCH INTO TUESDAY. DESPITE THIS COMPLEXITY, WE
HAVE BECOME MORE CONFIDENT IN THE PROSPECT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. AS
IT CURRENTLY STANDS, MOST LOCATIONS HAVE ABOUT A 70% CHANCE OF
PICKING UP MEASURABLE (0.1") OF SNOW THROUGH TUESDAY AND A 50%
CHANCE OF PICKING UP AN INCH OR MORE. THIS SNOW MAY AT TIMES BE
MIXED WITH SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN, WHICH WILL BE SUBJECT TO
SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. SNOW POTENTIAL DOES IN FACT STRETCH ALL THE WAY TO THE
COAST, INCLUDING GALVESTON ISLAND. MOST LIKELY AMOUNTS CURRENTLY
FALL BETWEEN A TRACE AND 2". HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON A POTENTIAL
MESOSCALE BANDED SNOW SETUP IMPACTING LOCALIZED AREAS, IT'S
POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE A FEW HIGHER END AMOUNTS. MORE CLARITY ON
THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD HOPEFULLY ARRIVE WITH THE AVAILABILITY OF
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS THIS WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL, THE MOST
ACTIVE PERIOD OF THIS STRETCH APPEARS TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY
MORNING, WHERE WE COULD SEE STEADY SNOW OR A MIX OF SNOW AND OTHER
PRECIPITATION TYPES. TRAVEL DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE
COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT OR PERHAPS EVEN NOT POSSIBLE SHOULD THE
CURRENT FORECAST PAN OUT AS EXPECTED.
FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN A FACTOR THROUGH THE
DURATION OF AND AFTER THIS SYSTEM. MONDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO THOSE OF SUNDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THIS STRETCH WITH HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF IF NOT ALL
OF SE TX. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO THE NORTH OF HOUSTON
TO THE LOWER 20S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. COASTAL
LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. ANY
LIQUID ON THE GROUND FROM THE DAY'S PRECIPITATION WILL BE AT RISK
FOR REFREEZING SHOULD ANY DAYTIME MELTING OCCUR.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER OFF HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND LOWS
OVERNIGHT ONCE AGAIN IN THE 20S INLAND TO NEAR FREEZING ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. FURTHER TEMPERATURE IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 AND LOWS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
THE FREEZING MARK.
CADY
AVIATION
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT MVFR
CIGS OF 1500-2500FT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ALONG THE COAST AND
EXPAND INLAND TO AROUND IAH BY 9Z. SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST, MAINLY IMPACTING LBX AND SGR. THERE IS
A LLJ AROUND 2000FT WITH WINDS UP TO 40-45KT ACROSS THE AREA THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE AROUND 12Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR
AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TOMORROW MORNING CREATING A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT AND BRINGING
WIND GUSTS TO 20-25KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FROPA WILL OCCUR AT
CLL AROUND 10-12Z, IAH 11-14Z, AND GLS 13-16Z.
FOWLER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 408 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN THE BAYS/NEARSHORE
WATERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TOMORROW. INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS OVERNIGHT HAS WARRANTED THE
ISSUANCE OF A CAUTION. ELEVATED NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW, POTENTIALLY
NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT FURTHER TO THE
NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN HEADING INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEAK
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WATERS. AS THIS SYSTEM
STRENGTHENS, GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, THE ARRIVAL OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS THE COLD AIR IN
PLACE COULD BRING A MIX OF RAIN, SNOW, AND SLEET TO PORTIONS OF
THE BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS. LOW WATER LEVELS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH STEADY OFFSHORE WINDS
IN PLACE. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
CADY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 45 56 29 42 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 53 60 34 45 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 57 61 39 46 / 10 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR GMZ330-335-350-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ370-375.
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM....CADY
AVIATION...FOWLER
MARINE...CADY
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