556
FXUS64 KHGX 160917
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
317 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE, WE SHOULD SEE A SHORT BUT
RELATIVELY BENIGN PERIOD OF WEATHER SET IN, LASTING INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS FOSTERING CAA WITH
CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE
WITH HIGHS TODAY ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 40S/50S, AND LOWS FOR
MONDAY MORNING DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S/30S INLAND AND 40S OVER
THE COASTLINE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPANNING THE PLAINS SLIDES EAST
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NEXT WEEK, ESTABLISHING ONSHORE
FLOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ADVECTION OF WARM/HUMID GULF AIR WILL
USHER IN A SHORT WARNING TREND, BRINGING HIGHS IN THE 60S, POSSIBLY
REACHING THE 70 DEGREE MARK IN SOME ISOLATED SPOTS. RISING MOISTURE
& CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT COOLING OVERNIGHT, PUTTING LOWS FOR TUESDAY
MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S/50S INLAND AND 60S OVER THE COAST/WATERS.
03
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE HEADING INTO TUESDAY, WITH
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS INCREASING AS AN ABNORMALLY STRONG (1050-1052
MB) CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
SHIFT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. A STRONG ARCTIC
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A ROBUST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS/CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, REACHING SE TX DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AND CLEARING THE COAST DURING THE VERY EARLY HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, THOUGH A DISTINCT LACK OF SB INSTABILITY
AND TOTAL PW VALUES OF APPROXIMATELY 1.0 IN SHOULD LIMIT THE
PROSPECT OF ANY HEAVY RAINFALL AND/OR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW AN INCH.
PERHAPS THE MOST IMPACTFUL PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL
BE THE PERIOD OF ABNORMALLY COLD WEATHER THAT WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING, PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN ZONES COULD SEE LOWS SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING WHILE
GREATER HOUSTON AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
BLUNTED BY PERSISTENT CAA, REACHING THE 40S NORTH OF METRO HOUSTON
AND THE LOWER 50S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS PERIOD WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. PORTIONS OF THE BRAZOS VALLEY/PINEY WOODS COULD
REACH AS LOW AS THE UPPER TEENS, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WILL SIT IN THE UPPER 20S TO JUST BELOW FREEZING. THE RISK FOR
COLD-RELATED ILLNESS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY ELEVATED NORTH WINDS,
WHICH WILL BRING MINIMUM WIND CHILL VALUES FROM AROUND 10 IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES TO THE LOWER 20S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WHILE
FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS
SEVERAL CYCLES, THIS STILL WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO POSE COLD-
RELATED HAZARDS AND COLD WEATHER SAFETY PRECAUTIONS SHOULD STILL
REMAIN NECESSARY.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST, LEADING TO A GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN THE 40S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND THE LOW TO MID 50S ON
SATURDAY. PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
ON THURSDAY NIGHT, MAINLY LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
LOWS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WILL INCREASE TO THE UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S.
CADY
AVIATION
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
THE ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH CLL, UTS, AND CXO
ALREADY, AND WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE REST OF THE TERMINALS BY
7-8Z. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 12-17KT AND GUSTS TO 25-30KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY SKC
CONDITIONS.
FOWLER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINING IN EFFECT. WIND GUSTS
GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES, ALONG WITH
BUILDING SEAS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE HEADING INTO THE
EVENING, AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME ON MONDAY AND STRENGTHEN ON
TUESDAY. A STRONG FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT YET AGAIN, WITH
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
CADY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 51 30 64 51 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 56 37 64 54 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 57 46 64 59 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ330-335-
350-355-370-375.
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....CADY
AVIATION...FOWLER
MARINE...CADY
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