423
FXUS64 KHGX 170449
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1049 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
QUIET CONDITIONS HAVE SETTLED IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AHEAD OF TUESDAY'S ANTICIPATED ARCTIC COLD
FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY, USHERING IN COOLER AIR THAT WILL KEEP TODAY'S HIGHS IN THE
40S-50S REGION-WIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND TURN WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY
MONDAY MORNING, BRINGING IN WARMER, MORE HUMID AIR AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL ALSO TEMPER OVERNIGHT LOWS GOING INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
INLAND, AND REMAINING IN THE 60S ACROSS OUR COASTAL REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN ACHIEVE THE 60S TO LOW 70S AREA-WIDE IN THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
EVENING.
MCNEEL
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST TX TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH, THERE'S A COUPLE OF THINGS
TO DISCUSS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE LOW 70S IN
OUR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS AND MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE. ALSO OCCURING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR
THE UPPER TX COASTLINE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP TO SURGE
PW VALUES UP TO 1.4-1.6", WHICH WOULD USUALLY BE INDICATIVE OF HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, TAKING A LOOK AT MODEL SOUNDINGS, WE DON'T
SEE MUCH SATURATION EXTENDING ABOVE 750MB. ON TOP OF THAT, ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WOULD HAVE TO BE ELEVATED. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF SHEAR IN PLACE (BULK SHEAR AROUND 50 KT) AND A SHORT
WINDOW WITH CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG SOUTH OF I-10. THE FRONT ITSELF
WON'T PUSH THROUGH UNTIL AFTER SUNSET, SO UNTIL THEN WE'D HAVE TO
RELY ON PVA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO ACT AS LIFTING MECHANISMS.
THE ISSUE WITH THAT IS TO ACCESS THAT ~1000 J/KG OF CAPE, WE'D NEED
TO FORCE AIR PARCELS ABOVE 700MB...WHICH DOESN'T LOOK TOO FEASIBLE.
THAT BEING SAID THERE'S A LOW NON-ZERO CHANCE THAT A STORM OR TWO
COULD BREAK THROUGH AND BECOME STRONG, SO SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED MOST
OF SOUTHEAST TX IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON TUESDAY...BUT IF THIS OCCURS IT WOULD BE MORE PROBABLE TO BE
SOUTH OF I-10.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AFTER
SUNSET ON TUESDAY AND WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING LEAVING US WITH STRONG CAA PREVAILING. TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN THE 40S/50S WITH BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS POTENTIALLY REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA NEAR THE
COAST. WINDS SUBSIDE GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHICH IS STILL ON
TAP TO BE OUR COLDEST NIGHT OF THE MONTH SO FAR. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE
BRAZOS VALLEY TO THE LOW 30S AROUND THE HOUSTON METRO AREA AND
SOUTHWARD. THOSE THAT HAVE BEEN KEEPING TRACK OF THE FORECAST MAY
NOTICE THAT THIS IS A BIT "WARMER" THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. IT COULD
BE SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER CAUSING THE BUMP, BUT ALSO THE PAST
FEW ANOMALOUS COLD EVENTS HAVE FEATURED A WARMING TREND IN MODEL
GUIDANCE ABOUT 3-4 DAYS OUT...THEN THINGS TRENDED BACK TO WHERE THEY
ORIGINALLY WERE...SO WE'LL JUST HAVE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF THIS TREND
HOLDS. WE ARE STILL ANTICIPATING VERY COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS/20S ON THURSDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL LIKELY WARRANT AT LEAST A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT NORTH OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA AND LOW TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 30S/40S AREA-WIDE BEYOND THAT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S/50S GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL. RAIN
CHANCES DO RETURN LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THOUGH AS A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN GULF, BUT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF I-10. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW FAR
NORTH THE MOISTURE WILL EXTEND, POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST TX FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
BATISTE
AVIATION
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE
(WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GLS WHERE ELEVATED WINDS WILL REMAIN FOR
ANOTHER FEW HOURS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 12-15KT AND GUSTS TO
25KT). WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY BY MONDAY EVENING. SKC WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASED
MOISTURE LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY
PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH CIGS BETWEEN 3500-5000FT, BUT
SCT CLOUDS AT 2000-3000FT WILL BE POSSIBLE. TERMINALS SOUTH OF
I-10 MAY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
FOWLER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 129 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS
PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT, SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE BAYS AND GULF
WATERS. THE ADVISORY WILL EXTEND INTO THE NIGHT FOR THE FARSHORE
GULF WATERS DUE TO LINGERING ELEVATED SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS WINDS BEGIN
TO VEER TO EASTERLY BY MONDAY MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT ON LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO GALE FORCE
AT TIMES LEADING TO SEAS ELEVATING UP TO 8-10 FEET AROUND MIDWEEK.
MARINERS CAN EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO
THURSDAY. LOW WATER LEVELS DURING PERIODS OF LOW TIDE WILL BE
POSSIBLE MIDWEEK AS WELL.
BATISTE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 30 62 51 68 / 0 0 0 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 37 62 51 69 / 0 0 0 80
GALVESTON (GLS) 46 63 58 70 / 0 0 0 70
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
FOR GMZ350-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ370-375.
SHORT TERM...MCNEEL
LONG TERM....BATISTE
AVIATION...FOWLER
MARINE...BATISTE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page