762
FXUS64 KHGX 170909
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
309 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPANNING THE PLAINS SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY, ALLOWING ONSHORE FLOW TO RETURN THIS
AFTERNOON. ADVECTION OF WARM/HUMID GULF AIR WILL USHER IN A SHORT
WARNING TREND, BRINGING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/60S. RISING MOISTURE
& CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT COOLING OVERNIGHT, PUTTING LOWS FOR TUESDAY
MORNING IN THE 40S/50S AND LOWER 60S IN SOME COASTAL SPOTS.
WAA ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL TAP INTO ABUNDANT MOISTURE,
PRODUCING SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY.
COVERAGE INCREASE WITH STORMS BECOMING MORE LIKELY THAT AFTERNOON AS
A WARM SECTOR MOVES ONSHORE PRECEDING THE ARRIVAL OF STRONG COLD
FRONT. SHEAR IS RATHER ABUNDANT ACROSS THE REGION, AND ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ON THE OTHER HAND,
INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER MEAGER, BUT COULD HAVE TIME TO BUILD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WHICH WILL NOT ARRIVE IN SE TEXAS TILL AFTER
SUNSET. DURING THE EVENING, COASTAL AREAS AROUND
JACKSON/MATAGORDA/BRAZORIA COULD SEE SFC CAPE EXCEED 1000 J/KG WITH
THE ADVANCING WARM SECTOR. ADD IN TEI VALUES AROUND 25 AND DOWNDRAFT
CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG, THEN THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE WE COULD SEE
SOME STRONGER/ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS FROPA. THIS ALIGNS
WITH SPC'S THINKING, WHICH HAS PORTIONS OF THE AREA UNDER A MARGINAL
(LEVEL 1/5) RISK FOR TUESDAY. MAIN HAZARD OF CONCERN WOULD BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT, ENDING THE SEVERE RISK. COLD, DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS
FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 40S. COULD NEED A WIND ADVISORY IN SOME
AREAS AFTER THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BARRIER ISLANDS.
03
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT DISCUSSED ABOVE LATE ON
TUESDAY, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 25 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
POTENTIALLY REQUIRING THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY. FURTHER
INLAND, EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. THESE ELEVATED NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO
PROVIDE A ROBUST PERIOD OF CAA, CONFINING WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS IN THE
40S INLAND AND THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS (THIS IS
APPROXIMATELY 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY). OF
PERHAPS GREATER INTEREST REMAINS THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SIGNAL A SLIGHTLY WARMER TREND COMPARED TO THAT OF A
FEW DAYS AGO, WITH LOWS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND
PINEY WOODS IN THE LOWER 20S WHILE METRO HOUSTON SITS JUST BELOW
FREEZING AND THE COAST REMAINS NEAR 35. WHILE THIS WILL ONLY
RESULT IN A HARD FREEZE RISK FOR LIMITED PORTIONS OF THE AREA, IT
COULD NONETHELESS BE A DANGEROUS PERIOD COLD WHEN FACTORING
MINIMUM WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20S. COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES AND/OR EXTREME COLD WARNINGS COULD VERY WELL BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL VERY GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THOUGH
ITS SHIFT SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH FOR AN ONSHORE FLOW
REGIME TO DEVELOP. HIGHS FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE 40S, THOUGH A WEAKENING OF CAA SHOULD
RESULT IN MARGINAL INCREASES IN OVERNIGHT LOWS ON EACH NIGHT
(STILL, PARTS OF THE AREA COULD REACH BELOW FREEZING, ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF I-10).
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AS THE APPROACH OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE WEST
INDUCES THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
TX COASTAL BEND. AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS TOWARDS THE SE TX COAST,
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAINFALL ENTER THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY.
CADY
AVIATION
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE
(WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GLS WHERE ELEVATED WINDS WILL REMAIN FOR
ANOTHER FEW HOURS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 12-15KT AND GUSTS TO
25KT). WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY BY MONDAY EVENING. SKC WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASED
MOISTURE LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY
PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH CIGS BETWEEN 3500-5000FT, BUT
SCT CLOUDS AT 2000-3000FT WILL BE POSSIBLE. TERMINALS SOUTH OF
I-10 MAY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
FOWLER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY AND LATER TO THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON LATE TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY SEA FOG IN THE BAYS ON TUESDAY PRIOR TO
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE
ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS. WIND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
CADY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 61 48 65 29 / 0 10 60 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 62 50 66 40 / 0 10 80 80
GALVESTON (GLS) 62 57 68 45 / 0 10 80 90
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....CADY
AVIATION...FOWLER
MARINE...CADY
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