835
FXUS64 KHGX 180547
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1147 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
A BIT WARMER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 50S AND MID 60S. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, INCREASING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASING CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BECOMING CLOUDY
TONIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE
RULED OUT OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS SATURATED
(700:925MB) AND WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
OVERALL, WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS, A MILD
NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED WITH LOWS IN THE 40S (FAR NORTH) AND 50S
ELSEWHERE.
ON TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP A BIT MORE AHEAD OF A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE
EVENING/NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A WARM FRONT WILL ALSO LIFT
THROUGH SOUTHEAST TX, POSITIONING THE REGION UNDER THE WARM SECTOR.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZATION, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SPEAKING OF
TEMPERATURES FIRST, HIGHS ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S
NORTH OF I-10 TO MID 70S ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE
SECOND CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY. PWS WILL BE INCREASING INTO THE 1.4 - 1.6 INCH RANGE FROM THE
COAST AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY, BECOMING LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ADD INSTABILITY, ALONG WITH A
MODERATE LOW-LEVEL JET. STRONG SHEAR (AROUND 40 TO 50 KTS) WILL ALSO
BE IN PLACE, SUPPORTING STRONG UPDRAFTS. CAPE AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FORCING, ON THE OTHER HAND, REMAIN LIMITED. THEREFORE, SPC CONTINUES
TO HIGHLIGHT MOST OF SOUTHEAST TX WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1
OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER. THAT IS, A FEW/ISOLATED STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. IF SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP, DAMAGING WINDS
UP TO 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL UP TO A QUARTER SIZED WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD BE ENTERING THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, MOVING OFF THE COAST NEAR/AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
NORTHERLY GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE LOW 30S - LOW 40S. WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED. COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SE TX LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE
REGION. MORE DETAILS ON THE COLD WEATHER IS DISCUSSED IN THE LONG
TERM SECTION.
JM
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
STRONG CAA PERSISTS GOING INTO WEDNESDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. CLOUD COVER LINGERS FOR MOST OF THE MORNING
AND GRADUALLY DECREASES THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...THAT PAIRED WITH
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS (THAT MAY NECESSITATE A WIND ADVISORY NEAR THE
COAST)...WE WON'T SEE MUCH "WARMING". ONLY ANTICIPATING HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S AREAWIDE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD (AND OF THE MONTH SO FAR) WITH WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DOWN TOWARDS NEAR THE COAST. THE WARMING TREND
IN MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS COME TO A HALT AS
THINGS HAVE TRENDED BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY COOLER. STILL ANTICIPATING
A HARD FREEZE FOR THE BRAZOS VALLEY/THE PINEY WOODS AND A LIGHT
FREEZE ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST). WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE
EXTREMELY COLD FOR OUR NORTHERN LOCATIONS AS THEY'LL RANGE FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY
PROMPT A MIXTURE OF EXTREME COLD WARNINGS/COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BE SURE TO PROTECT THE 4 P'S (PEOPLE,
PETS, PLANTS, PIPES) AND TO USE CAUTION IF USING PORTABLE HEATERS
FOR WARMTH.
COLD AIR STICKS AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACH ONLY THE 40S ON THURSDAY AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES NORTH OF I-10 ON THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE A BIT LOWER ON FRIDAY AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES. THIS IS DUE TO A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN GULF DRIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE UPPER
TX COASTLINE SENDING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES GO ON A WARMING TREND TOWARDS OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOOKS LIKE WE'RE ON OUR WAY BACK TO THE
70S AGAIN!
BATISTE
AVIATION
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 7-10KT (SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST)
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE A COLD FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH USHERING IN A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT BY TUESDAY NIGHT. A
COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION
CAUSING LOWERING CIGS AND INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS BETWEEN 2500-3000FT
WILL BEGUN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
14-16Z TUESDAY MORNING WITH CIGS DROPPING TO 500-800FT. THERE WILL
ALSO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AROUND THAT TIME ACROSS THE
AREA WITH INCREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WITH COVERAGE HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-10 BETWEEN
2-6Z. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 25-30KT POSSIBLE
EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE
FRONT WITH LINGERING LOW CIGS BETWEEN 400-700FT.
FOWLER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
EASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BY THIS EVENING AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. THE ONSHORE
FLOW STRENGTHENS ON TUESDAY AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE CAUTION FLAGS
FROM THE EASTERN GULF WATERS. THIS IS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. WINDS MAY RELAX AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST ENOUGH ON TUESDAY
EVENING TO ALLOW FOR A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SEA FOG IN THE BAYS AND
NEARSHORE GULF WATERS.
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT ONCE
IT PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND
GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED, SO A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE BAY AND GULF WATERS FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SEAS ELEVATING UP
TO 7-9 FEET AROUND MIDWEEK. MARINERS CAN EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL
CONDITIONS PREVAILING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LOW WATER LEVELS
DURING PERIODS OF LOW TIDE WILL BE POSSIBLE MIDWEEK AS WELL. A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND BRINGS
ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS ALONG WITH MORE SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES.
BATISTE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 49 64 31 42 / 0 70 50 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 51 65 41 48 / 0 70 80 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 56 67 45 54 / 0 80 90 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
TXZ163-164-176-177-195>198-210-211.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....BATISTE
AVIATION...FOWLER
MARINE...BATISTE
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