590
FXUS64 KHGX 190524
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1124 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
BIG CHANGES AHEAD! AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS ON ITS WAY TO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS, BRINGING RAIN/STORM CHANCES AND VERY COLD
CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE.
AS OF 1:30 PM, THE COLD FRONT WAS EXTENDING ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM DALLAS/FORT WORTH TO SAN ANGELO TO MIDLAND. AHEAD OF THIS LINE,
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE PREVAILED. THE
COLD FRONT IS MOVING FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS... BEING
CLOSE TO THE BRAZOS VALLEY AREA BY 5-6 PM, CLOSE TO THE HOUSTON
METRO AREA AROUND 8PM, AND OFF THE COAST AFTER 10 PM. THE
POTENTIAL TIMING FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
FRONT REACHES OUR REGION. SOME OF STRONGEST CELLS MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 IN/HR, WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES JUST EAST OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA, TOWARDS
CHAMBERS AND LIBERTY COUNTIES. THIS RISK IS DEPICTED WELL ON THE
DAY 1 WPC'S OUTLOOK, WHERE THE REGION IS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK
(RISK 1 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS LOW;
HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH SOME OF THE
STRONGEST STORMS. SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE THIS EVENING.
AFTER THE RAIN, COMES THE COLD AND WIND. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL FILTER IN, BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND A COLDER AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION. WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST
INLAND COUNTIES, AND FROM 20 TO 30 MPH ALONG THE ISLANDS RIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED. THEREFORE, THE WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE INLAND COUNTIES AND IS NOW
IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL QUICKLY DROP OVERNIGHT AS VERY COLD AIR FILTERS IN. THE
COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 10 DEGF BY EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
BRAZOS VALLEY AREA AND SURROUNDING AREAS. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY. IN TERMS OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION, CHANCES ARE VERY LOW BUT NON-ZERO. SOME HI-RES
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, INCLUDING THE NAM SUGGEST SOME LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT, MAINLY NORTH/WEST OF A LINE FROM BRENHAM TO
HUNTSVILLE TO TRINITY. PROFILES REMAIN SATURATED WITH BOTH,
TEMPERATURES AND WET BULB TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW ZERO BELOW
THE 925 MB LAYER. THIS IS PRETTY BORDERLINE, IN FACT, BASED ON
LATEST NBM, THE PROBABILITY OF GETTING FREEZING RAIN IS BELOW 5
PERCENT. ONE OF THE MAIN FACTORS TO OUR FAVOR WILL BE GUSTY
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT, ENOUGH TO
DRY ANY PARTICLE BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT
A DRY FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT KEEP IN MIND ELEVATED
SURFACES AND OVERPASSES MAY BE SLIPPERY OVERNIGHT/TOMORROW
MORNING.
FORTUNATELY, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB UP ABOVE FREEZING ON WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AREAWIDE. HOWEVER, WINDY CONDITIONS AND PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S
AND UPPER 30S. BE READY FOR BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. PRACTICE THE 4 P'S
COLD WEATHER SAFETY BY PROTECTING YOU, PETS, PLANTS AND PIPES. COLD
WEATHER DOESN'T STOP HERE...A COLDER NIGHT IS YET TO COME WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MORE DETAILS IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.
JM
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
STRONG CAA CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT NORTHERLY WINDS
SUBSIDE A BIT FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST/THE BAYS. COMBINE THAT
WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUD COVER AND WE HAVE OUR COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE MONTH SO FAR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WITH A HARD FREEZE FOR THE BRAZOS VALLEY/THE PINEY WOODS AND A
LIGHT FREEZE ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST). THAT NORTHERLY
BREEZE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COLDER ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS ACROSS THE
BRAZOS VALLEY/PINEY WOODS AND AREAS WEST OF I-45. ELSEWHERE, WE
CAN EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. AS A
RESULT, AN EXTREME COLD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THERE WILL BE A MIXTURE OF EXTREME
COLD WARNINGS AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES, BUT EITHER WAY JUST
KNOW THAT IT'S GOING TO BE VERY COLD. BE SURE TO TAKE THE PROPER
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT THE FOUR P'S (PEOPLE, PETS, PLANTS, PIPES).
STAY WARM AND USE CAUTION IF USING PORTABLE HEATERS, BRING YOUR
PETS INDOORS, COVER YOUR PLANTS OR MOVE THEM INDOORS, AND TAKE THE
PROPER PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT EXTERIOR PIPES (ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE
IN THE BRAZOS VALLEY/PINEY WOODS).
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE RETURNS ON THURSDAY AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER AND LINGERING MOISTURE IS PUSHED FURTHER INTO
THE GULF. THIS WILL HELP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOW TO MID
40S. ANOTHER FREEZE IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. WITH LIGHT-ISH
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT, WE'LL ONLY SEE WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE 20S. THURSDAY NIGHT IS ALSO WHEN WE BEGIN TO SET THE
STAGE FOR OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL CONUS AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LEADING TO INCREASING WINDS...LOOKS LIKE WE'LL BE BORDERLINE FOR
ANOTHER COASTAL WIND ADVISORY GOING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO
INCREASING MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL
ACTUALLY BE THE COLDEST OF THE PERIOD AND ONLY REACH THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS WELL FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD FROM THE COASTAL LOW DRIFTING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE TX GULF COAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE ENTIRE DAY ON SATURDAY MAKING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND A
COLD AND WET DAY...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S AND LOWS IN THE
30S/40S. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MARDI
GRAS SHOULD PLAN ON DRESSING TO STAY BOTH WARM AND DRY. DRIER AIR
MOVES IN ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AGAIN LEADING
TO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEING SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK THOUGH AS WE MAKE OUR TREK BACK TO THE 70S. THIS WILL CONTINUE
OUR TREND THIS MONTH OF EITHER BEING WELL ABOVE NORMAL OR WELL BELOW
NORMAL...WITH A COUPLE OF NORMAL-ISH DAYS MIXED IN.
BATISTE
AVIATION
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF I-45 FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, BUT THE MAIN STORY IN THIS AVIATION
DISCUSSION WILL BE LOW CEILINGS AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. CIGS
HAVE DROPPED TO 400-800FT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15-20KT AND GUSTS TO 25-30KT INLAND (AND EVEN
CLOSE TO 40KTS AT GLS). THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
THE MIDMORNING HOURS WITH CIGS GRADUALLY RISING AND SCATTERING OUT
BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS LOWERING BY SUNSET - THOUGH
REMAINING NEAR 7-15KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE MIGHT BE SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE LEADING TO CONTINUE SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 1500-2500FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FOWLER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY OFF THE COAST BY 10PM OR SO. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, MODERATE EAST WINDS AND SOME 2-6SM FOG CAN BE
EXPECTED. IN ADDITION, HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWS AN UPTICK IN SCATTERED
STORM COVERAGE IN THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG CELL OR TWO. BEHIND THE FRONT, GALE
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. NORTH WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING TO 30KT WITH GUSTS TO 40KT (AND HIGHER AT ELEVATED
PLATFORMS, ETC). THESE SPEEDS WILL PREVAIL INTO A GOOD PART OF THE
DAY WED BEFORE SLIGHTLY DIMINISHING. THOUGH PETSS GUIDANCE ISN'T TOO
EXCITED ABOUT LOW WATER CONDITIONS WED-THURS, WE'LL STILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL AROUND LOW TIDE CYCLES. MODERATE NE/ENE
WINDS AND SOMEWHAT ELEVATED SEAS WILL CONTINUE THURS-FRI. A COASTAL
LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MIDDLE TX COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AND
TRACK EWD. WE'LL AGAIN SEE WINDS INCREASE (ESP OFFSHORE), SEAS
BUILD, AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE. CONDITIONS START SETTLING DOWN
SUNDAY AND WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE AND ONSHORE FLOW RESUME EARLY NEXT
WEEK. 47
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 27 40 22 41 / 20 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 37 46 28 46 / 90 10 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 42 50 33 46 / 80 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
TXZ163-164-176-177-195>198-210-211-226-235.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR TXZ163-164-176>179-195>199-210>213-226-227-235-
236-335.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ176-195>198-
210>214-226-227-235>238-313-335>338.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ436>439.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ330-335-350-355-370-
375.
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....BATISTE
AVIATION...FOWLER
MARINE...47
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