573
FXUS64 KHGX 191133
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
533 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
OUR LONG-ADVERTISED FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS NOW HAPPENED, AND WE HAVE
THE EXPECTED GUSTY NORTH WINDS USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. GONE ARE PREVIOUS SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS, AND
BACK IS A REMINDER OF WINTER. THERE IS A LOT GOING ON, SO HERE'S A
QUICK ROUNDUP OF THE BIG POINTS!
- MAKE SURE ALL THE OUTDOOR STUFF IS SECURELY IN PLACE OR INDOORS! A
WIND ADVISORY IS IN PLACE TODAY FOR ALL BUT THE SHELTERED PINEY
WOODS NORTHEAST OF LAKE LIVINGSTON DUE TO THE GUSTY NORTH
WINDS, CAPABLE OF GUSTING UP TO AROUND 40 MPH. ON THE WATERS, A
GALE WARNING CONTINUES AS WELL.
- BE THINKING OF KEEPING PEOPLE, PETS, PIPES, AND PLANTS WARM FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS! (AND PROBABLY LONGER) TEMPS
ARE PLUMMETING ON THESE POST- FRONTAL WINDS AS WELL, AND A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN PLACE ON THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FRINGES
OF THE AREA THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING, UNTIL WIND CHILLS BEGIN
TO CLIMB BACK UP TO - NOT REALLY WARM - BUT AT LEAST LESS
UNUSUALLY COLD LEVELS.
- TONIGHT LOOKS EVEN COLDER THAN EARLY THIS MORNING! A HARD FREEZE
IS EXPECTED NORTH AND WEST OF THE HOUSTON METRO, WITH A LIGHT
FREEZE FOR ALL BUT THOSE RIGHT ON THE GULF COAST. WIND CHILLS
WILL PLUNGE EVEN LOWER AS WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY GUSTY. BECAUSE OF
THIS, AN EXTREME COLD WARNING IS IN PLACE IN THE SAME NORTHERN
AND WESTERN FRINGES, WHILE THE REST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAS A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
DEWPOINTS AT GALVESTON HAVE FALLEN BELOW 50 DEGREES AT 3 AM,
INDICATING THAT ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS NOW FINDS ITSELF BEHIND OUR
HIGH PROFILE COLD FRONT, AND WILL BE DECLINING BACK INTO A
REMINDER OF WINTER. FORTUNATELY, CONDITIONS LOOK TOO DRY FOR ANY
SORT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION, BUT WE WILL DEFINITELY HAVE
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD.
WE HAVE GOT OURSELVES A WHOPPER OF A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DROPPING
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. A 1050 HIGH IN NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE
TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE, A WEAK 1012 GULF LOW ALSO EXISTS
OFF TO OUR EAST. AND WHILE 1012 ISN'T A REAL IMPRESSIVE MARK ON
ITS OWN (JUST A SCOCH BELOW STANDARD MSLP!) IT'S ENOUGH AGAINST
THAT 1050 HIGH TO GIVE US SOME REAL GUSTY NORTH WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING. GALVESTON HAS GUSTED UP TO AROUND 50 MPH LAST NIGHT WITH
AN ASSIST FROM LOW-FRICTION GALVESTON BAY UPWIND, AND WIDESPREAD
GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS ARE UP AROUND 30 MPH DESPITE NOT
HAVING A SHEET OF WATER UPWIND.
THE NORTHERN SWATH OF THE AREA HAS REACHED OR FALLEN BELOW
FREEZING ALREADY TONIGHT, THOUGH MY EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THE
HOUSTON METRO AND ALL BUT A COUPLE ISOLATED COLD SPOTS SOUTH OF
I-10 SHOULD STAY ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. STILL, THAT'S A PRETTY
DECENT CHUNK OF OUR AREA FALLING BELOW 32 IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. THINGS DON'T LOOK MUCH WARMER TODAY, AS THE CONTINUED
STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON THESE GUSTY NORTH WINDS LOOK TO KEEP
THOSE NORTHERN SPOTS AROUND OR BELOW 40 DEGREES, AND EVEN SPOTS
RIGHT ON THE GULF WILL STRUGGLE MIGHTILY TO HIT 50 DEGREES.
THE COLD DAY SETS US UP FOR EVEN COLDER MARKS TONIGHT. THE INLAND
HALF OR SO OF THE AREA LOOKS TO SEE A HARD FREEZE, WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 20S. THIS MAY WELL INCLUDE EVEN
THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN EXURBS/SUBURBS FOR HOUSTON. WHILE
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE DIMINISHING, WE'RE STILL LOOKING AT A 1040
HIGH OVER MISSOURI, SO I'M STILL EXPECTING SOME GUSTINESS TO DRIVE
DOWN WIND CHILLS EVEN MORE THAN WE'RE SEEING EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS AND WINDS LOOK TO PUSH WIND CHILLS
DOWN INTO SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN ROW OR TWO OF COUNTIES,
AND INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE TEENS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. EVEN AT THE
COAST, THE FORECAST TEMPS AND WINDS WOULD COMBINE FOR WIND CHILLS
AROUND/BELOW 20 DEGREES!
THAT BIG HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT, AND WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER A LITTLE MORE
NORTHEASTERLY AND DIMINISH SOME MORE. THIS DOESN'T EXACTLY MAKE
ME THINK WE'RE GOING TO GET A LOT OF WARMUP THURSDAY, BUT WE
SHOULDN'T SEE THE DAY'S TEMPS ANY LOWER THAN TODAY. SIMILARLY,
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS QUITE COLD, BUT WITH THE COLD ADVECTION TAP
SHUT OFF AND LIGHTER WINDS OCCURRING, MY LOWS AND WIND CHILLS ARE
SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT. I'D STILL
EXPECT A VERY BROAD COLD WEATHER ADVISORY, BUT WE MAY BE ABLE TO
ESCAPE A SECOND NIGHT OF EXTREME COLD WARNINGS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
OVERCAST SKIES WITH A COLD AIRMASS STILL OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP
COOLER WEATHER IN PLACE EARLY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S/
40S. CONDITIONS GET A TAD WARNING HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS OUR
NEXT BOUT OF ACTIVE WEATHER BEGINS. THIS COMES IN THE FORM OF A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WHICH WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS/CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. AS IT DRAWS CLOSERS TO SE TEXAS, A
COASTAL TROUGH/GULF LOW WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THE
INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THIS FEATURE WITH FORCING ALOFT FROM THE
TROUGH SHOULD BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES, RESULTING IN COLD AND
DREARY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. PWS REMAIN TAME, GENERALLY AROUND 1.0-
1.3" AND WITH A SHALLOWER WARM CLOUD LAYER AND LACKING INSTABILITY,
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL REMAINS LOW FOR
THE TIME BEING. THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES
SHOULD PUSH OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT, WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING
DOWN SUNDAY MORNING.
THINNING SKY COVER SHOULD BRING A BRIEF WARM-UP ON SUNDAY, EVEN
MORESO ON MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PUSHED INTO
NORTH/NORTHEAST GULF, THUS ESTABLISHING ONSHORE FLOW AN WAA. BY
TUESDAY, HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 70S INLAND AND UPPER 60S
ALONG THE COAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
MVFR AND IFR (PLUS A SMALL SMATTERING OF LIFR) CIGS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH CLOUD BASES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS IN HOW MUCH CLOUDS SCATTER OUT BETWEEN MID-
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AM GOING SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC IN GOING
TO SCT020-025 IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT...EXPECTING THIS WILL BE VERY
CLOSE TO BKN, AND COULD HOLD AS A CIG INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT ENOUGH TO BECOME VFR. TONIGHT, WINDS SLOWLY LOSE
THEIR GUSTY CHARACTER AND DIMINISH MODESTLY WHILE VEERING A BIT
MORE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT XXX AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER GALE FORCE HAVE BEGUN
THIS MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO RISE TO 6
TO 11 FEET. THEREFORE, GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. MARINERS SHOULD ALSO WATCH FOR LOWER WATER LEVELS ACROSS
THE BAYS, ESPECIALLY AT LOW TIDE AND IN THE UPPER REACHES NEAR
MORGAN'S POINT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE AND
SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY. CAUTION FLAG AND ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY
AS A COASTAL TROUGH FORMS OFFSHORE. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 39 22 41 26 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 46 28 45 29 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 51 33 46 36 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ163-
164-176-177-195>198-210-211-226-235.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ163-176-177-195>198-210-211-226-235.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR TXZ164-178-179-199-200-212>214-227-236>238-300-
313-335>338-436>439.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ176-195>198-210>214-
226-227-235>238-313-335>338.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ436>439.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ330-335-350-
355-370-375.
SHORT TERM...LUCHS
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...LUCHS
MARINE...03
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