486
FXUS64 KHGX 192213
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
413 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IS UPON US AND IS LEAVING US A VERY COLD DAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 30S UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE GENERALLY GUSTING FROM 20
TO 30 MPH, EVEN HIGHER ALONG THE ISLANDS. WINDY AND VERY COLD
CONDITIONS ARE LEADING TO WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20S AREAWIDE.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IS YET TO COME
WITH THE WORST EXPECTED TONIGHT. IN FACT, BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS, WE'VE DECIDED TO START EARLIER THE EXTREME COLD
WARNING AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORY. WHILE WINDS WILL WEAKEN A BIT
THIS EVENING, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE,
DROPPING TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S. AREAS AROUND THE BRAZOS
VALLEY COULD SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS. CLOUDS AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS MAY PLAY A BIG ROLE IN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OR THIN OUT THROUGH THE NIGHT, COLDER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED. THE BRAZOS VALLEY HAS A 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES
AT OR BELOW 20F TONIGHT. WHILE THE REMAINDER OF SE TX HAS A 90 -
100% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. AN EXTREME COLD WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TX WHERE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS FALLING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ARE EXPECTED. COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
WITH VERY COLD WIND CHILLS FROM 15 TO 20 DEGF EXPECTED. COLD WEATHER
SAFETY PRACTICES SHOULD CONTINUE WHETHER YOU ARE IN AN EXTREME COLD
WARNING OR COLD ADVISORY... IT IS COLD OUT THERE. STAY WARM, STAY
SAFE AND WEAR APPROPRIATE CLOTHING, ESPECIALLY IF SPENDING TIME
OUTDOORS.
IF YOU ARE NOT A FAN OF COLD WEATHER, UNFORTUNATELY, COLD CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, RESULTING IN NORTH WINDS
IN OUR REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP ABOVE FREEZING ON
THURSDAY, IT WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S. PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES MORE DURING THE DAY, SO WINDS, AT LEAST, WILL BE WEAKER
COMPARED TO TODAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER ON THURSDAY EVENING AS
THE MAIN HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, COLD CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN WITH US WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S. COLD
WEATHER PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED AGAIN DURING THIS PERIOD, AT
LEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
JM
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
THE WEEKEND WILL START WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDY AND COOL
WEATHER WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OVER THE NW GULF AND BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS
AS WELL. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO PEAK AFTER DARK SATURDAY OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR THE GULF. THIS RAIN DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE TOO HEAVY, WITH GENERALLY .25-.5" OF RAIN SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER WILL PULL EAST OF
THE AREA BY SUNDAY, WITH IMPROVING WEATHER AND A RETURN TO SPRING-
LIKE CONDITIONS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY WILL BE THE
COOLEST DAY WITH TEMPS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE 40S ALONG WITH CLOUDY
SKIES, SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS. HOWEVER, THE
WARMING TREND WILL START ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY, AND CURRENTLY EXPECT NEAR 80F MAX TEMPS BY
TUE/WED!
EVANS
AVIATION
(18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY
SCATTERING OUT OR LIFTING THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS. HIGHER GUSTS AROUND GLS TERMINAL.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATER TONIGHT.
JM
MARINE
ISSUED AT 409 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
GUSTS TO GALE ARE STILL FREQUENT ENOUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND
GULF WATERS TO MAINTAIN THE GALE WARNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. PLAN IS TO TRANSITION THEM TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT
6PM FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND PROBABLY WELL INTO THURS. SEAS ARE
CURRENTLY RUNNING 5FT NEARSHORE AND 11FT OFFSHORE. WILL ALSO
MAINTAIN THE LOW WATER ADVISORY FOR THE BAYS. THIS IS PRIMARILY FOR
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE BAYS WHERE LEVELS AROUND -1 MLLW WILL BE
COMMON...ESPECIALLY AROUND LOW TIDE TIMES.
WINDS/SEAS WILL SOMEWHAT DIMINISH FRIDAY NEARSHORE, BUT SUSPECT
WE'LL STILL NEED A COMBINATION OF CAUTION/ADVISORY FLAGS IN THE GULF
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL TROF DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RE-TIGHTENS. EXPECT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP NEAR THE COASTAL BEND AND TRANSITION ENE
ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS, LOOK FOR PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WX WITH RAIN/ISOLATED STORMS
AND ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY AS IT PASSES
THROUGH. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MONDAY AND EXPECT ONSHORE WINDS
TO EVENTUALLY RESUME MONDAY NIGHT. 47
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 20 39 27 39 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 26 44 30 42 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 31 44 37 49 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ163-176-177-195>199-210>213-226-227-235.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR TXZ164-178-179-200-214-236>238-300-313-335>338-
436>439.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ330-335-350-355-
370-375.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ330-335.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ330-335.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ350-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ370-375.
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....EVANS
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...47
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