430
FGUS74 KHGX 201725
ESFHGX
210524-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
1125 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE SAN JACINTO RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR THE
SAN JACINTO RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC
OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.
IN THE TABLE BELOW, THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE SAN JACINTO RIVER NEAR CONROE HAS A FLOOD
STAGE OF 115.8 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE CONROE
FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 103.5 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID 02/20/2025 - 05/20/2025
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
------------------------------------------------------------------
EAST FORK SAN JACINTO RIVER
CLEVELAND 19.0
NEW CANEY 58.0
CANEY CREEK
SPLENDORA 17.0
PEACH CREEK
SPLENDORA 14.0
WEST FORK SAN JACINTO RIVER
CONROE 115.8 97.3 100.5 101.4 102.8 103.5 104.0 104.6 106.0 112.1
PORTER 81.0 61.4 62.7 64.0 65.3 66.2 66.8 67.4 68.1 75.4
HUMBLE 49.3 43.4 44.1 44.9 45.5 46.0 46.5 46.9 47.7 49.6
SPRING CREEK
SPRING 91.5 76.9 77.1 77.7 78.4 78.9 79.4 79.9 81.4 82.6
CYPRESS CREEK
WESTFIELD 85.5 68.9 70.1 70.2 70.6 71.1 71.7 72.2 73.3 76.0
SAN JACINTO RIVER BELOW LAKE HOUSTON
SHELDON 10.0 3.1 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.8 5.1 5.8 7.4 9.4
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS, THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED.
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT: HTTPS://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/LONG_RANGE.PHP?WFO=HGX
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page