308
FXUS64 KHGX 201732
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1132 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
COLD AIR REIGNS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS, AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
20S AND WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S EARLY THIS
MORNING, THE EXTREME COLD WARNING AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. SOME KEY POINTS FROM THE
FORECAST:
- KEEP THE 4 P'S IN MIND AS WINTER COMES BACK FOR ANOTHER VISIT!
PEOPLE, PETS, PLANTS, AND PIPES ARE ALL VULNERABLE TO VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WHEN EXPOSED AND UNPROTECTED.
- YOU'LL WANT TO KEEP EVERYTHING PROTECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS WELL.
THOUGH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS DON'T LOOK TO FALL
QUITE AS FAR AS WE'RE SEEING THIS MORNING, IT WILL STILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AND LOW ENOUGH TO CAUSE ISSUES WITH PROLONGED
EXPOSURE. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
- WE BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK, BUT THE PRICE OF THAT IS THE RETURN OF RAIN, PRIMARILY
SATURDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
WE ARE FULLY IN THE GRIP OF THE STRONG PLAINS HIGH. AS THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE CELL IS DOWN TO 1042 MB NOW AND THE LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GULF HAS MOVED OFF, WE FIND OURSELVES IN A WEAKER
PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND WINDS ARE SLOWLY (OH SO SLOWLY) BEGINNING
TO DIMINISH, WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS
INTO THE 20S. WE COULD VERY WELL ACTUALLY BE COLDER, BUT A LOW
CLOUD DECK STUBBORNLY REFUSES TO CLEAR OUT, HAMPERING NIGHTTIME
COOLING.
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, THIS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE FEATURE REMAINS THE
DOMINANT SURFACE FEATURE. IT WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE BIT MORE INTO
THE 1030S AS IT DRIFTS EAST TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY, AND WINDS
WILL BE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT WHILE
CONTINUING THE TREND OF SLOW, GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE STRATUS DECK
SHOULD (FINALLY!) SCATTER OUT TODAY, AND THOUGH IT WON'T HELP US
WARM UP TOO MUCH...WE SHOULD AT LEAST MANAGE TO SNAG 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE YESTERDAY'S VERY COLD CONDITIONS. WE SHOULD SEE WIND CHILLS
RISE ABOVE THE THRESHOLDS FOR THE MORNING'S EXTREME COLD WARNING
AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES AROUND 10 AM, BUT DON'T EXPECT MUCH
IMPROVEMENT ON THAT. MY HIGHS ARE AROUND OR COLDER THAN AVERAGE
LOWS.
TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE COLD AGAIN, BUT AT LEAST AS THE LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS PASSES THROUGH, WE SHOULD LARGELY SHUT OFF THE COLD
ADVECTION TAP. THAT SAID, WITH LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS AND LESS
CLOUD COVER, WE SHOULD SEE BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING. I'VE
TENTATIVELY GOT CONDITIONS THAT ARE STILL QUITE COLD, BUT THE
10/15 DEGREE THRESHOLD FOR AN EXTREME COLD WARNING SHOULD BE SAFE
(KEY WORD: SHOULD). WE'LL START WITH AN AREA-WIDE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY WITH WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S
EXPECTED.
COLD CONDITIONS STICK WITH US TOMORROW, ALBEIT WITH A SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT NUANCE. WITH LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING (BUT
SURFACE FLOW REMAINING NORTHEASTERLY), WE SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE LOW
CLOUDS COME BACK IN WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT OFF THE GULF, AND THAT
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MIRED IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S FOR YET
ANOTHER DAY. ON THE PLUS SIDE, THE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP THINGS FROM GETTING QUITE SO COLD (OR REALLY MUCH COLDER AT
ALL). WE MAY NEED TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES,
BUT GIVEN THE MOISTURE RETURN WE'LL NEED TO GET FOR SHOWERS, I
EXPECT THAT WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY AND THE LONG
TERM SECTION BELOW.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
FOR THOSE LONGING FOR A SUNNY WEEKEND, I GIVE TO YOU MY APOLOGIES.
A ROBUST MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER SW CONUS AND
INTO TEXAS, INTRODUCING LARGE SCALE LIFT OVER OUR REGION. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A STEEP BAROCLINIC ZONE
OFFSHORE. A VEERING VERTICAL WIND PROFILE WILL KEEP CHILLY NE FLOW
NEAR THE SURFACE, WHILE A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT LIFTS GULF
MOISTURE OVER THE SHALLOW DENSE COLD AIR BELOW.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANGES AND CONTINUED
CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. MUCH OF THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE 40S, WITH 50S NEAR THE COAST. LARGE SCALE LIFT REACHES
ITS PEAK BY SUNDAY, COINCIDING WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE WARMER, BUT NOT NECESSARILY 'WARM'
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
THE PATTERN BECOMES QUIETER FOR US NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES TREND
WARMER. BY MID-WEEK, HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
75-80 DEGREE RANGE (COOLER AT THE COAST) WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
DESPITE THE GENERALLY QUIETER PATTERN, RISING DEW POINTS OVER THE
RECENTLY CHILLED GULF AND BAY WATERS SHOULD INCREASE THE RISK OF SEA
FOG BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE PAST HOUR
OR SO WITH THE DISSIPATION OF THE CLOUD DECK PREVIOUSLY IN PLACE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY, SHIFTING SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AT TIMES,
WITH WIND SPEEDS RELAXING OVERNIGHT. CIGS SHOULD RETURN TOMORROW
MORNING, BUT SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 4000-6000 FT.
CADY
MARINE
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY. HOWEVER,
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
GULF. LOW WATER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND LOW TIDE CYCLES,
MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN BAYS. A COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COASTAL BEND AND TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THIS
WEEKEND BRINGING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER INCLUDING ELEVATED
WINDS AND SEAS BY FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OVER THE GULF COULD
BE EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY, POTENTIALLY SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL ALSO
INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN. WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THE RISK OF SEA FOG INCREASES
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 38 25 38 33 / 0 0 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 42 29 40 38 / 0 0 0 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 43 35 46 42 / 0 0 0 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ163-176-177-
195>199-210>213-226-227-235.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST FRIDAY
FOR TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-
313-335>338-436>439.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ164-178-179-
200-214-236>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ330-335.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ330-335.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ350-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ370-375.
SHORT TERM...LUCHS
LONG TERM....SELF
AVIATION...CADY
MARINE...SELF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page