079
FXUS64 KHGX 210503
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1103 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
DESPITE CLOUD COVER LINGERING FOR A BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED THIS
MORNING, WE WERE EVENTUALLY ABLE TO BREAK THE 40 DEGREE MARK THIS
AFTERNOON AT MOST OF OUR OBSERVATIONAL SITES THANKS TO MORE
EFFICIENT DIURNAL HEATING AND A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF CAA. STILL,
WE REMAIN IN THE MIDST OF A PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL THAT WILL STRETCH INTO THE WEEKEND. ROBUST HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE EAST VERY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND FOR THE
TIME BEING, WITH MOISTURE RETURN NOT EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SATURATION IN THE MIDLEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MIDLEVEL CLOUDS, WHICH COULD INHIBIT COOLING
SOMEWHAT. STILL, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP BELOW
FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT - INTO THE LOW 20S FOR THE
NORTHERN ZONES AND THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS GREATER
HOUSTON. THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
UNTIL LATE TOMORROW MORNING, WITH A WARNING UNLIKELY THANKS TO
WEAKER WINDS KEEPING WIND CHILL VALUES ABOVE ISSUANCE THRESHOLDS.
DESPITE FURTHER REDUCTIONS TO CAA TOMORROW, WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND AS SUCH HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
AROUND 40. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN GULF THAT WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE SE
TX COAST THIS WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY, ASIDE FROM THE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OFFSHORE (RAIN
CHANCES AROUND 20%). OVERNIGHT LOWS ON FRIDAY SHOULD STAY JUST
ABOVE FREEZING, THANKS TO CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND WEAKER CAA.
CADY
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
WE'WILL TRANSITION FROM COLD TO RAINY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND ALONG
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
SURFACE TROUGH JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH TX, AND UPPER-LVL TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HEALTHY ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295K
LAYER, ALONG WITH INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A
DREARY SATURDAY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
ONLY REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S (COAST). RAIN/STORMS BECOME
MORE SCATTERED/WIDESPREAD IN THE EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST AND
PVA INCREASES WITH HEIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS OF
NOW, RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS (1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE) NEAR GALVESTON, AND BOLIVAR
PENINSULA. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ONGOING ON SUNDAY BEFORE TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ON MONDAY, MOVING
EAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO SOUTHERLY FLOW,
HENCE, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE 70S, POTENTIALLY REACHING THE LOW 80S BY MID-WEEK. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY MINIMAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG-TERM.
JM
AVIATION
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS (5-10KT NORTH
OF I-10, 8-12KT SOUTH OF I-10, AND 12-15KT WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
WIND GUSTS AT GLS). SCT TO BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN
4000-6000FT HAS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.
FOWLER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
WINDS HAVE TEMPORARILY DECREASED, BUT STILL IN THE 13-23KT RANGE.
THEY'LL PICK BACK UP OVERNIGHT HOWEVER AND WE'LL GO WITH CAUTION
FLAGS NEARSHORE/BAYS AND AN ADVSY OFFSHORE. NEARSHORE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO AN ADVSY PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
MARGINAL LOW WATER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND LOW TIDE CYCLES,
MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN BAYS WHERE LEVELS OF -0.5 TO -1.0 ARE A
POSSIBILITY. A COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL BEND AND
TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND BRINGING
PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER INCLUDING ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS AS
TIME PROGRESSES FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
OVER THE GULF COULD BE EXTENDED. THE LOW WILL ALSO INCREASE THE
CHANCE OF RAIN. WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THE RISK OF SEA FOG INCREASES BY TUE-
WED. THE NEXT FRONT IS PENCILED IN WED NIGHT. 47
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 26 38 33 44 / 0 0 0 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 29 40 36 48 / 0 0 10 50
GALVESTON (GLS) 35 44 42 53 / 0 0 10 50
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR TXZ163-164-
176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-
436>439.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
GMZ330-335.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
GMZ350-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ370-375.
SHORT TERM...CADY
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...FOWLER
MARINE...42
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