427
FXUS64 KHGX 220001
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
601 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
ONSHORE FLOW IN THE MIDLEVELS HAS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE US WITH A
WELL-SATURATED LAYER AROUND 925-850MB, AND AS SUCH WE HAVE HAD A
PERSISTENT OVERCAST LAYER THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PREVENT MUCH
TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATION IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE REACHED NEAR OR JUST BELOW 40 FOR MOST OF THE AREA,
AN INCREASE OF ONLY 5-7 DEGREES FROM LAST NIGHT'S LOWS AS OF 2 PM
CST. WITH THIS CLOUD DECK REMAINING IN PLACE OVERNIGHT, RADIATIVE
COOLING WILL ALSO BE INHIBITED WITH CAA ALSO REMAINING FAIRLY
WEAK. AS SUCH, MOST LOCATIONS WILL MAINLY SEE LOWS IN THE 30S,
ONLY A DIFFERENCE OF A FEW DEGREES FROM THIS AFTERNOON'S HIGHS.
LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS JUST ABOVE THE 25-DEGREE MARK,
AND AS SUCH A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL NOT BE REISSUED TONIGHT
BARRING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PACKAGE.
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM CONTINUES TO SURROUND OUR
NEXT SHOT AT PRECIPITATION. INCREASING LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE,
COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
WESTERN GULF AND A ROBUST MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TO OUR WEST, WILL
INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AS EARLY AS TOMORROW MORNING.
THE TIMING OF RAINFALL ONSET CONCURRENT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
FREEZING LINE PRESENTS A VERY CONDITIONAL BUT STILL NONZERO
CHANCE AT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS AREAS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF METRO HOUSTON JUST BEFORE SUNRISE (THIS INCLUDES
PORTIONS OF WALLER, GRIMES, MADISON, COLORADO, WASHINGTON, AUSTIN,
BURLESON, AND BRAZOS COUNTIES). FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
STILL SHOWS A VERY LIMITED (10-20%) CHANCE OF A HUNDREDTH OF AN
INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION FOR THESE LOCATIONS. WHILE THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING RAIN IS OVERALL LOW, THE POSSIBILITY OF LIMITED
TRAVEL IMPACTS (ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED ROADWAY SURFACES) CAN'T
TOTALLY BE RULED OUT ON SATURDAY MORNING.
ASIDE FROM THIS CONDITIONAL WINDOW OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN, WE
WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL COVERAGE OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY ON SATURDAY WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING AT THE COAST
PRIOR TO SUNRISE AND INLAND EXPANSION OCCURING AS THE DAY GOES ON.
WHILE HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED, STEADY SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE
UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGHER RAINFALL
TOTALS CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COAST. ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT FULLY
BE RULED OUT, BUT WITH VERY LIMITED SB INSTABILITY IN PLACE THIS
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR CONSTANT ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, WITH VALUES REMAINING IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S AREA-WIDE.
CADY
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
WE'LL STILL BE DEALING WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SUNDAY MORNING AS
A COASTAL LOW SITS JUST OFF OF THE UPPER TX COASTLINE. PW VALUES
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST COULD REACH UP TO ~1.3", WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND
THE 90TH PERCENTILE. IT WON'T BE ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SO, IF YOU DON'T HAVE TO BE ANYWHERE,
SUNDAY WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO SLEEP-IN WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING
OUT IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. MOST AREAS
WILL END UP SEEING GENERALLY BETWEEN 1-2" OF RAIN, BUT THE MAJORITY
OF THE RAIN WILL FALL AT A LOW ENOUGH RATE TO NOT CAUSE ANY NOTABLE
FLOODING CONCERNS. THE COASTAL LOW SLIDES OUT TO THE EAST LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY BRING AN END TO THE RAIN
CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST. DUE TO THE RAINFALL/LINGERING CLOUDS, THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WAS NUDGED DOWN A BIT TO
REFLECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE
THOUGH HEADING INTO THE WORK WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS OUT TO THE EAST LATE MONDAY ALLOWING
FOR WAA TO BRING US YET ANOTHER EARLY PREVIEW TO SPRINGLIKE WEATHER.
DRY AIR STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH PW VALUES
STAYING BELOW 1.0" THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE
UPPER 60S/LOW 70S ON MONDAY, THE MID 70S ON TUESDAY, AND THE
MID/UPPER 70S ON WEDNESDAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACH THE 90TH
PERCENTILE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SIMILAR CLIMB WITH
SUNDAY NIGHT BEING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S, MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S, AND TUESDAY NIGHT SOLIDLY IN THE 50S. ONE OF THE
DOWNSIDES OF THIS SPRINGLIKE PATTERN IS THAT WATER TEMPERATURES IN
THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE GULF WATERS HAVE COOLED DOWN INTO THE UPPER
40S/LOW 50S...AND WE'LL SEE WARMER/MOISTER AIR ADVECT OVER THESE
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG WILL
RETURN...AT LEAST UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE MIDWEEK.
DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT IT'LL ONLY MANAGE TO
SHAVE 10°F OR LESS OFF OF OUR TEMPERATURES. BEHIND THE FRONT, WE'RE
LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S.
BATISTE
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 549 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL LOWER DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, BECOMING MVFR BY SATURDAY MORNING. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FROM THE GULF DURING THE MORNING HOURS, INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES NEAR THE COAST. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE AND WILL EXPAND
INLAND. NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL AND WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KTS
INLAND TO 15 KTS ALONG THE COAST. VSBYS MAY DETERIORATE WITH
PATCHY FOG AND/OR SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
MODERATE EAST NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL
PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE COASTAL BEND
AND TRACKS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THIS
WEEKEND. LOOK FOR RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY, CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN EXIT OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN THE
ADVISORY FLAGS FOR THE GULF WATERS & MATAGORDA BAY, AND CAUTION
FLAGS FOR GALVESTON BAY WHERE SPEEDS SHOULD BE A TOUCH LOWER. A
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES LATE MONDAY. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PERIODS OF SEA FOG LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST. 47
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 31 41 38 55 / 10 40 60 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 35 43 40 54 / 20 60 90 70
GALVESTON (GLS) 40 49 46 55 / 20 70 90 80
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ330-350-355-
370-375.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR GMZ335.
SHORT TERM...CADY
LONG TERM....BATISTE
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...42
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page