972
FXUS64 KHGX 222012
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
212 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING GUSTY COASTAL WINDS AND
PERIODIC SHOWERS TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ALSO OFFSHORE. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
MOVE OFFSHORE AND EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS.
TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 40S AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
FALL A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT. WE WILL SEE CLOUD COVER DECREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY, SO WILL
SEE WARMER MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S AREAWIDE.
WOOD
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
WE STARTED OUT THE MONTH WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
WE'RE GOING TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
COASTAL LOW WITH PW VALUES BETWEEN 0.3-0.4" ON MONDAY. WHILE THIS
IS OCCURING, TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
90TH PERCENTILE. WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
PREVAILING THROUGH MIDWEEK, THIS SETS US UP FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SPRINGLIKE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING BACK INTO THE 70S
AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST TEMPERATURES IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL STILL BE COOL WITH LOWS IN THE 40S/50S.
ONE OF THE DOWNSIDES OF THIS SPRINGLIKE PATTERN IS THAT WATER
TEMPERATURES IN THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE GULF WATERS HAVE COOLED DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S...AND WE'LL SEE WARMER/MOISTER AIR ADVECT
OVER THESE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEA FOG WILL RETURN...AT LEAST UNTIL A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THERE REMAINS SOME
DISCREPANCY ON THE EXACT TIMING, BUT THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
BULK OF THE COLDER AIR REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THERE
IS ALSO SOME DISCREPANCY ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL CONVERGE ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL...RAIN CHANCES ARE VERY LOW DURING
FROPA BUT NOT ZERO. THIS FRONT WILL ONLY BE GOOD ENOUGH TO KNOCK OUR
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S AND OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY INTO THE 40S ON THURSDAY. ONSHORE FLOW QUICKLY
TAKES BACK OVER ON FRIDAY LEADING TO YET ANOTHER WARMING TREND GOING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
PERHAPS OUR BEST CHANCE OF RAIN COMES OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. IT'S A BIT TOO EARLY TO GET TOO INTO THE DETAILS, BUT AS OF
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY COULD BE THE RAINIER OF THE TWO
WEEKEND DAYS.
BATISTE
AVIATION
(18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
SEEING MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, AND
EXPECT THESE TO EXPAND ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
PATCHY AREAS OF -RA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFT/EVE. EXPECTING
CEILINGS TO LOWER TO IFR OVERNIGHT AREAWIDE AND ALSO EXPECT MORE
SHRA TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WELL. COULD SEE SOME TSRA NEAR
THE COAST IN THE 8Z-13Z WINDOW. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT EAST OF MOST TAF SITES TOMORROW MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
AS A COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT TOWARDS THE UPPER TX COASTAL
WATERS, WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED. AS A
RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MATAGORDA BAY.
CAUTION FLAGS REMAIN UP FOR GALVESTON BAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE CAUTION FLAGS AND/OR ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND SEAS TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE AFTER THE
COASTAL LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE
NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO NORTH FLOW ON
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. THIS ONSHORE FLOW MAY
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG IN THE SOUTHERN BAYS
AND COASTAL GULF WATERS AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS POTENTIAL LASTS UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY
MORNING.
BATISTE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 38 57 38 69 / 50 30 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 40 55 42 68 / 80 60 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 45 55 47 61 / 90 90 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR GMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
GMZ335.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ350-355-370-
375.
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM....BATISTE
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...BATISTE
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