183
FXUS64 KHGX 261203
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
703 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
GONNA BE A SHORT SHORT TERM TODAY AS TOMORROW HAS BEEN ABSORBED INTO
THE LONG TERM SO THAT THE POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN EVENT DOESN'T GET CUT
IN HALF BY AN ARBITRARY FORECAST DISCUSSION BREAKING POINT.
YESTERDAY WE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE REGION, AND WHILE THE WARM ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
FOR TODAY, THERE WILL BE INCREASED CLOUD COVER KEEPING DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER LEADING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE DENSE OVERCAST SKIES AND COOLER OCEAN
WATERS WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH MEXICO AND
INTO TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH BEGINNING TO IMPACT SE TEXAS AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
IN OUR FAR SW COUNTIES (JACKSON, WHARTON, AND MATAGORDA COUNTIES),
BUT COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TOWARDS THE I-45 CORRIDOR BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. MUCH MORE ON THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN
THE LONG TERM BELOW.
FOWLER
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
MULTIPLE INDICATORS OF A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT ARE IN PLACE OVER
PORTIONS SE TEXAS LATE THIS WEEK. THIS COMES COURTESY OF A MID/UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH WILL DIG THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST/NORTHERN MEXICO/TEXAS ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BRING PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, BEGINNING OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES EARLY AND SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOME CAMS
ARE DISTINCTLY DRIER EARLY ON IN THIS EVENT, SEEMINGLY THE RESULT OF
AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PUSHING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM,
INTRODUCING NVA/SUBSIDENCE IN IT'S WAKE. MEDIATING THIS DISCREPANCY
BETWEEN THESE CAMS AND LONG RANGE MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, I'D WAGER
THAT WE'LL SEE AN INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH A POSSIBLE LULL IN ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD HEADING
INTO THE EVENING ON THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS, THOUGH THIS PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS OUT OF RANGE FROM THE 00Z HREF, SO WE'RE STUCK
WITH COARSER LONG-RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THE TIME BEING.
STILL, THESE INDICATE A POTENT ENVIRONMENT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. PWS
ARE PROGGED AT 1.3-1.9 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES FOUND CLOSER
TO THE COAST, ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTHWEST NEAR MATAGORDA BAY. A 25
TO 40 KNOT LLJ WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH FORECAST
SOUNDING STILL SHOWING DEEP SATURATION AND A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER.
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THIS RICH
ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE THE GREATEST RAINFALL TOTALS (FOR OUR AREA)
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT TO POSITIONING, THOUGH THE BROADER RANGE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE FAVORS AREAS FURTHER SOUTHWEST NEAR THE COAST FOR THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS AND GREATEST RISK OF FLOODING. THIS RISK
SEEMS TO BE PROPERLY REFLECTED IN THE ECMWF EFI AND SHIFT OF TAILS
FOR QPF, WHICH INDICATES STRONG CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER-END RAINFALL
TOTALS ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. SOIL
MOISTURE FROM CREST REMAINS AROUND OR UNDER 20%, SO IT MAY HELP
MITIGATE THE EFFECT OF HEAVY RAIN EARLY ON, THOUGH SOILS SHOULD
SATURATE AND BECOME MORE PRONE TO RUNOFF LATER IN THE EVENT.
RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THIS TWO DAY PERIOD ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM
2.0-5.0 INCHES, THOUGH HIGHER AMOUNT OF 5.0-9.0 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SPOTS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-10 NEAR THE COAST. WPC NOW
HAS A MODERATE (LEVEL 3/4) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON THURSDAY
NEAR MATAGORDA BAY WITH A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2/4) RISK EXTENDING FURTHER
NORTHEAST TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH FRIDAY. ANY STRONGER STORMS
WITH HIGHER RAINFALL RATES COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN
EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY THROUGH 1 PM FRIDAY FOR OUR SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. ADDITIONALLY, SPC HAS PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES UNDER A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2/5) RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR
THURSDAY WITH A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1/5) RISK ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. WHILE HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR THIS
EVENT, ANY STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS, IN ADDITION
TO ALL OTHER SEVERE HAZARDS. THE NEXT 1-2 FORECAST CYCLES SHOULD
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL INSIGHTS TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL/SVR THREAT, SO
STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES. FOR NOW, MAKE SURE TO HAVE
MULTIPLE WAYS OF RECEIVING WARNINGS. IF YOU ENCOUNTER
INUNDATED/FLOODED ROADWAYS WHILE DRIVING, MAKE SURE TO TURN AROUND!
THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD COME TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT AS THIS
SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
SETTING IN ON SATURDAY. EXPECT A SHORT WARM UP OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S. ANOTHER MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY, DRAPING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH SE TEXAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CURRENTLY THIS NEXT
FRONT IS LOOKING WEAKER IN NATURE, WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED RAIN
CHANCES ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GIVEN THE
WEAKER NATURE OF THIS FRONT, TEMPERATURES ONLY TAKE A SLIGHT DIP ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHS FALLING INTO THE 70S/LOWER 80S. LOWS ARE PROGGED
IN THE UPPER 50S/60S. ONSHORE FLOW IS SET TO RETURN ON TUESDAY,
BRINGING WARMER CONDITIONS INTO MID NEXT WEEK.
03
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA WITH CIGS
BETWEEN 300-900FT AND PATCHY FOG. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 14-15Z FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS BEFORE SCATTERING OUT AND
GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THAT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, PATCHY FOG AND LOW CIGS MAY
LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AT GLS BEFORE SCATTERING OUT.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON OF AROUND
7-10KT, LOWERING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT, AND THEN TURNING MORE
SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
BRAZOS RIVER, WITH INCREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
FOWLER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
PATCHY FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND BAYS
EARLY TODAY WITH ISOLATED DENSE PATCHES FILLING IN AS SUNRISE
APPROACHES. ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY AS THE NEXT
LARGE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO TEXAS FROM THE WEST. STRENGTHENING
WINDS OVER A LONG FETCH WILL BRING SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET OVER THE GULF
WATERS, NECESSITATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, HEAVY RAINS AND STORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS WELL. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING, THOUGH ONSHORE
FLOW IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN ON TUESDAY.
03
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 84 64 72 62 / 0 30 70 80
HOUSTON (IAH) 84 66 74 65 / 0 20 50 90
GALVESTON (GLS) 75 66 73 65 / 0 30 40 90
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
TXZ226-235>237-335>337-436-437.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...FOWLER
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...FOWLER
MARINE...03
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page