172
FXUS64 KHGX 280000
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
700 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
ANOTHER LEAD SHORT WAVE/VORT LOBE HAS TRIGGERED A CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER TO OUR SW AND IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING OFF
THE MID/LOWER TX COAST. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING ESE INTO THE
GULF THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WE'LL BE ON ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY
SO ANTICIPATE SOME PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW EMBEDDED
TSTMS. WITH THIS LARGE AREA OF RAIN MOVING INTO THE GULF, MY
SUSPICION IS IT'LL DISRUPT/ROB MUCH OF OUR AREA FROM SEEING
SUBSTANTIAL (PROBLEM-CAUSING) RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
AM VERY CLOSE TO A TIPPING POINT OF CANCELING THE FLOOD WATCH
ACROSS SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA. THOSE LOCATIONS SAW 1-3" LAST
NIGHT...AND EVEN ANOTHER 1-3" LIKELY SHOULDN'T CAUSE WIDESPREAD
ISSUES CONSIDERING THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS & DRY GROUND. THERE'S
NO DOUBT THAT I WOULD CANCEL IT SHOULD GUIDANCE SHOW SOME SORT OF
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. EVEN SOME THE HIRES DATA HASN'T BEEN
INITIALIZING WELL AT TIMES...OR SHOW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM RUN-
TO-RUN DIFFERENCE, BUT ALSO UNDERSTAND IT'S NORMAL/EXPECTED THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THAT SAID, UNTIL WE'RE SURE THIS COMPLEX MOVES FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE AND DISRUPTS THINGS, WE'LL RIDE A WHILE LONGER
WITH THE FLOOD WATCH BUT WILL BE CUTTING DOWN EXPECTED PRECIP
AMOUNTS. I'M CURRENTLY THINKING MORE LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING
ISSUES (IF ANYTHING).
THE PRIMARY MID-UPPER TROF AXIS IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS NCTL
MEXICO. WE'LL PROBABLY SEE SOME MORE RAIN/STORMS FRIDAY AND IT
MAKES IT CLOSER, AND EVENTUALLY EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
THOUGH POPS ARE FAIRLY HIGH, THINK THE OVERALL ACTIVITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT SCATTERED IN NATURE. 47
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
POSSIBLY A FEW STRAGGLING SHRA SATURDAY MORNING, BUT CONDITIONS
IN THE LONG TERM RANGE ARE OTHERWISE LOOKING RELATIVELY DRY AND
BENIGN IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM BRINGING US RAINFALL IN THE SHORT
TERM. A SERIES OF PASSING DISTURBANCES TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
WILL BRING SOME MODEST RAIN CHANCES TO THE PINEY WOODS AREA LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND IN THE MID-WEEK TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK - HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO THE MID-UPPER 80S, WITH 90 DEGREES
POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.
MCNEEL
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
A MIXTURE OF VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS, MAINLY DUE TO LOW CEILINGS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING, OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. PERIODS
OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP/MOVE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF RA OR TS
IS LOW TO MEDIUM; HOWEVER, AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF IAH LOOK TO
RECEIVE MOST OF THESE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. VCSH CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY, BEFORE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVES IN BY
MIDDAY/AFTERNOON. THIS BAND OF RA/TS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CONDITIONAL; THEREFORE, INCLUDED PROB30 AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN FROM THE SSE AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AROUND STRONG SHOWERS OR STORMS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR IAH AS LLWS AROUND 30-45 KNOTS AT 2KFT LEVEL
WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 08-11Z FRIDAY APPROXIMATELY.
JM
MARINE
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE IS MOVING INTO THE AREA. EXPECT PERIODS OF
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY MARINE
HAZARDS, HOWEVER WILL BE INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS.
A STORM COMPLEX IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST OFF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
TEXAS COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS TO OR ABOVE
GALE ARE A POSSIBILITY ON ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS...LIKELY MORE GRADIENT DRIVEN THAN STORM
STRENGTH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
OVERNIGHT. MARINERS SHOULD CONSIDER THESE CONDITIONS BEFORE BEGINNING
OR CONTINUING THEIR TRANSITS. AFTER TONIGHT, ANOTHER (LIKELY
FINAL) DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE TRACKING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
EARLY ON SATURDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND DECREASING
SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 47
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
GIVEN LOWER FCST RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE FCST, WE'RE NOT ANTICIPATING
MUCH OTHER THAN SOME MODEST RISES TO POSSIBLY LOWER END ACTION STAGES
ON PORTION OF THE TRES PALACIOS AND LAVACA RIVERS. 47
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 61 73 63 82 / 80 80 30 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 63 74 65 83 / 70 80 50 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 65 73 67 76 / 60 90 70 40
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR TXZ210-226-227-235>237-
335>337-436-437.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ330-335-350-
355-370-375.
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....MCNEEL
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...47
HYDRO...47
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