896
FXUS64 KHGX 281728
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1228 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
THERE HAS BEEN QUITE THE CUTOFF IN RAINFALL SO FAR FOR THIS EVENT
WITH AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BRAZOS RIVER HAVE GOTTEN AROUND 1-
3" WITH SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF AROUND 4" IN JACKSON AND WHARTON
COUNTIES WHILE AREAS TO THE EAST HAVE BEEN AROUND 0.2-0.5". THIS HAS
ACTUALLY BEEN SOME VERY WELCOME RAINFALL SO FAR AS WE'VE GOTTEN THE
HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS WHERE WE HAVE THE WORST DROUGHT IN THE REGION
(D1 TO D3), AND WHILE THIS WON'T BE ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE THE DROUGHT
TOTALLY - IT WILL HELP ALLEVIATE SOME OF THE DRYNESS. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS THIS SOUTHWESTERN PORTION
OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS (WITH THE OCCASION RUMBLE OF
THUNDER) ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL
IN THE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SUNRISE AND THE MID-MORNING HOURS, BUT THEN
A COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY SWINGING THROUGH PLUS
DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO A REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. UNLIKE YESTERDAY, THE STORMS TODAY WILL NOT BE AS
STRATIFORM BUT MORE OF OUR TYPICAL HIT-OR-MISS ACTIVITY (BUT WHERE
IT HITS, RAIN INTENSITY COULD BE 1-2" PER HOUR). THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST (ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
NOT JUST WITHIN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA) IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH RAINFALL FINALLY ENDING BETWEEN SUNSET AND MIDNIGHT WITH THE
ACTIVITY TO THE EAST. WPC MAINTAINS THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4)
FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL DUE TO THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SPC ALSO MAINTAINS THE MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF
5) FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
REGARDING THE FLOOD WATCH, I HAVE KEPT THE CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF
JACKSON, WHARTON, COLORADO, FORT BEND, MATAGORDA, AND BRAZORIA
COUNTIES THROUGH 7PM TONIGHT AS IS - HOWEVER, THIS IS A VERY
BORDERLINE WATCH AT THIS TIME. WHILE WE HAVE SEEN SOME FLOOD
ADVISORY-TYPE ACTIVITY LAST EVENING, THE RAINFALL SO FAR HAS BEEN
VERY MANAGEABLE. AND THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL MORE THAN LIKELY FALL OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. SO, WHILE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS NON-ZERO, IT
IS CERTAINLY NOT HIGH. I AM KEEPING THE WATCH AS IS FOR THE SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT A TRAINING STORM IS ABLE TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH -
BUT IF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND DOWNWARD FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL WITHIN THE WATCH AREA THEN I'D EXPECT THE WATCH TO BE
CANCELLED IN FUTURE UPDATES.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL - IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SATURDAY IS
LOOKING TO WARM UP AS SLIGHT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FOLLOWING
THE EXITING TROUGH COMBINED WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 60S.
FOWLER
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL STILL FIND ITSELF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG
ML TROUGHING WITH DIFFULENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS. INCREASING PWS
WILL POOL NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MAXIMUM
LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, WE
THINK CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
GIVEN MODEL GUIDANCE'S RECENT STRUGGLE OF OVER ESTIMATING CAPPING
AND STABILITY, WE SHOULD NOT RULE OUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING FARTHER SOUTH. BUT FOR NOW, OUR HIGHEST POPS ARE NORTH
OF THE HOUSTON METRO. EXPECT VERY HUMID AND WARM CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE LOW/MID 80S. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, PERHAPS
SPARKING OFF A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HUMIDITY
WILL DROP BEHIND THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
MONDAY'S AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM MID/UPPER 70S
IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO LOW/MID 80S FARTHER SOUTH. MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE, WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM
MID/UPPER 50S IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO LOW 60S FARTHER SOUTH.
THE MID/UPPER SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY TREND TOWARDS SE CONUS
RIDGING WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER W CONUS. MEANWHILE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS, INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
THE VEERING VERTICAL WIND PROFILE SIGNALS A WAA REGIME, WHICH IS WHY
THE FORECAST FEATURES RISING TEMPERATURES, COUPLED WITH RISING
HUMIDITY DURING THE TUESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME. BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, AFTERNOON INLAND HIGHS COULD BE PUSHING 90 DEGREES WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S. AT LEAST IN MY BOOK, THAT'S A LITTLE MORE
SUMMERY THAN SPRING-LIKE.
THERE EXISTS LARGE GUIDANCE VARIANCE TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD FIND OURSELVES IN AN ACTIVE /
STORMIER PATTERN DURING THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WE DO HAVE SOME
MODEST POPS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN OUR NORTHERN AND ZONES. BUT THIS
FORECAST COULD EASILY CHANGE GIVEN MODEL VARIANCE AND THE FACT THAT
WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A FORECAST NEARLY A WEEK IN ADVANCE. BUT
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH THAT IT WILL AT LEAST GET WARMER AND
MORE HUMID.
SELF
AVIATION
(18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SE TEXAS CURRENTLY GLS AT MVFR
WITH CIGS. MVFR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING,
BECOMING MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT WITH INCOMING STRATUS DECK. SCATTERED
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE NOT
IN THE TAFS, TS WILL BE POSSIBLE; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
WHICH TERMINALS COULD EXPERIENCE TS. RAIN CHANCES END FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT, VARYING FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
STRONG CLUSTERS AND LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE PUSHING OFF THE
SOUTH TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING, WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FARTHER NORTH IN
OUR REGION. DESPITE PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH, THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS FAR FROM
THE THUNDERSTORMS. GENERAL WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FROM
THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS. BUT OCCASIONALLY MUCH
STRONGER WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS (POTENTIALLY OVER 45
KNOTS) ARE A CONCERN AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS PUSH INTO THE GULF
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR WATERS. THEREFORE, WE OPTED TO EXTEND THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM. BUT BE ADVISED, THAT BRIEF
PERIODS OF GALES WILL OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS. BUILDING SWELL WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO TODAY, WITH LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER SEAS IN
LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING THUNDERSTORM WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND NW
GULF THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
MOSTLY ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. ONE
EXCEPTION MAY BE MONDAY, WHEN A WEAK FRONT MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF OFFSHORE FLOW. ONSHORE FLOW AND SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH WINDS AND SWELL INCREASE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 73 64 83 67 / 90 40 10 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 66 84 69 / 90 60 20 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 75 67 77 69 / 90 70 40 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR TXZ436>439.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR GMZ350-355-370-375.
SHORT TERM...FOWLER
LONG TERM....SELF
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...SELF
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