126
FXUS64 KHGX 282106
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
406 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SYNOPSIS
A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LIBERTY AND POLK COUNTIES THROUGH 7
PM THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON, COMING TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT.
SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS;
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE TORNADO WATCH, TORNADOS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. ADAMS
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
RAIN WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING THROUGH JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LINGERING SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST AND
THE EASTERN COUNTIES INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PATCHY FOG OVER PORTIONS OF SE
TEXAS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S.
FOR SATURDAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RIDGING IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S INLAND
AND IN THE 70S ALONG THE COAST. LOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 60 TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. ONCE AGAIN, LIGHT WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG, PARTICULARLY ACROSS COASTAL
COUNTIES. ADAMS
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
A TROF WILL BE CROSSING THE PLAINS SUNDAY. ITS TRAILING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO N/NE TX AND CLOSER TO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING. WE'LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE UPSTREAM
FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE BOUNDARY AND
POTENTIALLY CLIPPING THE PINEY WOODS AREA AND/OR NORTH & EAST
PARTS OF THE CWA. THE FRONT SHOULD SAG CLOSER TO THE COAST MONDAY,
BUT NOT SURE IT'LL HAVE THE SUPPORT TO MAKE IT VERY FAR OFFSHORE
BEFORE STALLING AND WASHING OUT. SE/S FLOW WILL RESUME AREAWIDE
TUESDAY AND INCREASING INTO MIDWEEK. THIS WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS UP
AND WARM/MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LOWS AROUND 70 AND
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. THERE'S REALLY NO SUBSTANTIAL FORCING FOR
MUCH MORE THAN ISO/SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIP DURING THE WORK
WEEK. POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
MID/UPPER TROF TO THE WEST MAKES ITS WAY CLOSER TO THE AREA. 47
AVIATION
(18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SE TEXAS CURRENTLY GLS AT MVFR
WITH CIGS. MVFR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING,
BECOMING MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT WITH INCOMING STRATUS DECK. SCATTERED
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE NOT
IN THE TAFS, TS WILL BE POSSIBLE; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
WHICH TERMINALS COULD EXPERIENCE TS. RAIN CHANCES END FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT, VARYING FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A FEW EMBEDDED CELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING 30-50 KNOT GUSTS. THOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. WE STILL HAVE AN ELEVATED SWELL
OFFSHORE AND SEAS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO SUBSIDE, BUT SHOULD VERY
SLOWLY DO SO AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. A WARM AIRMASS WILL RESIDE
OVER THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE
WILL MONITOR FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. A WEAK FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE COAST LATER MONDAY, BUT AT THIS TIME IT IS UNCLEAR IF
IT WILL HAVE ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO MAKE IT ALL THE WAY OFFSHORE
BEFORE STALLING AND WASH OUT. ONSHORE FLOW AND SEAS RESUME TUESDAY
AND INCREASE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. 47
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 63 84 67 81 / 20 0 0 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 65 84 69 84 / 40 20 0 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 66 75 68 76 / 70 30 0 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR TXZ436>439.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
GMZ350-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ370-375.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR GMZ370-375.
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