427
FXUS64 KHGX 291748
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1248 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
THE MID/UPPER SYSTEM THAT HAS PLAGUED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL FINALLY DEPART
OUR REGION TO THE EAST TODAY. THAT BEING SAID, LINGERING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. LL FLOW WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A DEEPENING
SFC LOW OVER KANSAS AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF
E CONUS. THE RESULTING ONSHORE FLOW IS POOLING GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. MURKY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK,
ALLOWING FOR MORE SUNSHINE A WARM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.
INLAND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 80S WITH UPPER
70S NEAR THE COAST. WORTH MENTIONING THAT FOG COULD DEVELOP BY
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER OUR COASTAL / SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.
A DEEPER MORE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS ON SUNDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH. ENHANCED BULK SHEAR, LL INSTABILITY, AND HIGH PWS
WILL BE A POTENTIAL HARBINGER OF MORE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, THE
AMOUNT OF LIFT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN QUESTION SINCE LARGE-SCALE
SYNOPTIC ASCENT WILL MOSTLY BE NORTH OF OUR REGION. IN ADDITION,
CAPPING COULD ONCE AGAIN BE AN ISSUE. BUT THERE ARE A COUPLE FACTORS
TO THINK ABOUT BEFORE WE WRITE OFF SUNDAY THUNDERSTORMS. 1) PVA
WON'T BE ZERO, ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF HAS ANYTHING TO SAY ABOUT IT.
2) THE RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE BIAS TOWARDS TOO MUCH CAPPING.
THEREFORE, MOST OF THE REGION HAS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG WITH A RISK OF A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER WHILE
MOST ELSEWHERE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 ARE UNDER A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5). WIND, HAIL, AND A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF WE
CAN GET THE UPDRAFTS NEEDED FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
AS FOR SUNDAY TEMPERATURES, EXPECT ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH
HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE LOW 80S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK IS LOOKING TO BE ON THE WARM AND HUMID
SIDE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ZONAL TURNING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S IN THE PINEY WOODS AND BRAZOS VALLEY TO THE LOW
TO MID 80S DOWN IN THE HOUSTON METRO AND ALONG THE COAST. THE LOW
TO MID 80S EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY, THEN RISING INTO
UPPER 80S (AND SOME SPOTS HITTING 90) WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
FACTOR IN THE HUMIDITY, HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MID 50S TO MID 60S
MONDAY NIGHT, THEN RISING TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A DAILY CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-10 (WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN THE
PINEY WOODS NORTHWARDS) AS A BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED NEAR THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. IF THAT BOUNDARY WOBBLES SOUTHWARDS, OUR RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE - IF IT WOBBLES NORTHWARDS THEN OUR RAIN CHANCES
DROP TO NEAR 0. EVENTUALLY THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SE
TEXAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES IT THROUGH, BUT THAT
WILL LIKELY BE BEYOND THE END OF THE LONG TERM.
FOWLER
AVIATION
(18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS WITH
REMAINING MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT. SOUTH WINDS AT AROUND
10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WEAKENING AFTER
SUNRISE. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. MVFR AND
LATER IFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AREA-WIDE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AFTER AROUND 06Z.
DENSE FOG CLOSER TO THE COAST CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CIGS AT THE
HOUSTON TERMINALS AS WELL AS ALONG THE COAST. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS
ARRIVE AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW. INCREASING SHRA/TS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED BEGINNING LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT FOR NOW LIES
MOSTLY OUTSIDE OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CADY
MARINE
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE FOLLOWING THE YESTERDAY'S
STORM SYSTEM. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15KT HAVE DEVELOPED
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS ARE TAKING A BIT LONGER
TO IMPROVE COMPARED TO THE WINDS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 5FT IN THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS AND AROUND 7FT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS IN EFFECT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
THE MID-MORNING FOR THESE CONDITIONS, AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION AS WELL IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. LOW
SEAS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT OFFSHORE WATERS (OR VARIABLE IF THE WINDS
ARE WEAK ENOUGH) ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AS A DECAYING
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THEN BEGIN ON
TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF PATCHY, BUT OCCASIONALLY DENSE, FOG
DEVELOPING IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND LOWER BAYS AS EARLY AS
THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASED RISK OF
STRONG RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOWLER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 84 67 81 64 / 0 0 30 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 84 68 83 69 / 20 0 20 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 78 68 78 69 / 30 0 20 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR TXZ436>439.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SELF
LONG TERM....FOWLER
AVIATION...CADY
MARINE...FOWLER
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