539
FXUS64 KHGX 292327
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
627 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
WITH THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING
STORMS TODAY PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, WE HAVE ENTERED
A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY INACTIVE WEATHER AHEAD OF THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH TOMORROW. WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
THIS AFTERNOON, HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE MID 80S IN SOME
LOCATIONS. EXPANDING CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDES A STEADY STREAM OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION. AS SUCH, NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL BE
RELATIVELY INEFFICIENT AND LOWS SHOULD SIT AT OR JUST UNDER 70
DEGREES. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG, ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME POCKETS OF
DENSE FOG COULD LINGER INTO THE MORNING, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. SOME HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING AS A RESULT.
OUR ATTENTION TOMORROW TURNS TO THE APPROACH OF A MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS, AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA, BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE
BOUNDARY STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE DFW METROPLEX. STILL,
VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING IN
THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE LEND SUPPORT TO
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
PRESENCE OF A FAIRLY ROBUST CAPPING INVERSION THAT WILL HAMPER
STORM FORMATION IF NOT ERODED AS WELL AS FAIRLY MODEST SHEAR. THE
MOST FAVORABLE REGION FOR DEVELOPMENT REMAINS CONCENTRATED IN THE
PINEY WOODS, WHERE LIFT VIA THE TROUGH WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE
(STILL, CONDITIONS WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY MORE FAVORABLE TO OUR
NE). AS SUCH, THE REGION REMAINS WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK AREA IN THE
LATEST SPC UPDATE. THIS WILL BE CONTINGENT UPON THE EROSION OF THE
CAPPING INVERSION, WHICH HIRES MODELS CURRENTLY DO NOT FAVORABLE.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE RECENT TRACK RECORD OF GUIDANCE OF DEPICTING A
STRONG CAP, IT'S IMPOSSIBLE TO IGNORE THIS CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR
SOME SCATTERED STRONG STORMS. POP VALUES GENERALLY DECREASE AS YOU
MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE COAST, THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
COULD CONCEIVABLY PICK UP SOME FORM OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL BY THE
END OF TOMORROW NIGHT.
WITH ONSHORE FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE, MOST LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
AGAIN SIT NEAR 70 ON SUNDAY. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES WILL SEE LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S OR
EVEN UPPER 50S IF THE STALLED BOUNDARY SITS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
CADY
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN CREEPING UP AGAIN THIS WEEK...REMINDING US
THAT SUMMER IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER...AND IT ISN'T A TRUE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS SUMMER WITHOUT HUMIDITY, AND WE CAN CONFIRM THAT
HUMIDITY WILL BE IN ATTENDANCE WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.
SUMMER LOVERS, REJOICE. I'LL BE JOINING THE COLD WEATHER LOVERS WITH
MOURNING THE END OF CRISP AND REFRESHING AIR.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KICKOFF THIS WARM TREND. LOOKING
UP THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE, WE WILL HAVE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO START.
THIS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE CHANGE IN DAY TO DAY HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S INLAND AND IN
THE 70S ALONG THE COAST. LOWS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S AND A FEW
NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE UPPER 50S. TUESDAY'S LOWS WILL BE A BIT
WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S AREA WIDE
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KICK IN AROUND MID-WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS INTO THE DESERT SW. THIS POSITIONS US IN THAT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ZONE, AND WILL LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN DAYTIME
HIGHS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN THE 80S AREA
WIDE (EVEN THE COAST MAY NOT BE SPARED). SOME LUCKY SUMMER LOVERS
MAY EVEN SEE HIGHS REACH 90 DEGREES THESE DAYS. LOWS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE THAT CLASSIC BALMY SUMMER NIGHT FEEL
AS TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE 70S.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PREDICTED EACH
DAY AS A BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY. DEVIATIONS IN
THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY WILL ALTER THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, ANY SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT WOULD
INCREASE CHANCES. ANY DEVIATION NORTHWARD WOULD RESULT IN CHANCES
NEAR ZERO. RIGHT NOW THE LOCATIONS WITH THE HIGHEST POP RESIDE NORTH
OF I-10, AND THE GREATEST CHANCE OF POPS WITHIN THAT REGION WOULD
FALL IN THE PINEY WOODS.
ADAMS
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
VFR ACROSS SE TEXAS...FOR NOW. FOG ALREADY LURKING ON WEBCAMS
OFF GLS, AND EXPECT A DEGRADATION TO MVFR (IFR AT GLS) LATER THIS
EVENING, AND IFR ACROSS THE AREA IN THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE
SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10KT PERSIST. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CIGS LATE
TONIGHT, BUT ONLY ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AS A FEW/SCT DECK
FOR NOW.
TOMORROW, LOOKING FOR IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LATER IN THE MORNING,
WITH VFR GENERALLY EMERGING IN THE AFTERNOON. BIG QUESTION WILL BE
HOW FAR SOUTH SH/TSRA PUSH DOWN TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. UTS
CLOSEST TO WHERE BETTER POTENTIAL IS, SO HAVE A PROB30 TSRA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH VCSH ELSEWHERE DOWN TO IAH. THIS IS A BIT
OF A COMPROMISE SKETCH, AND WILL NEED TO BE REFINED ONE WAY OR THE
OTHER BY FUTURE SHIFTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE FINALLY MOVED OUT OF THE BAYS AND GULF
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS HAVE FINALLY LOWERED BELOW 7 FEET.
LOW SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT OFFSHORE WATERS (OR VARIABLE IF THE WINDS ARE WEAK
ENOUGH) ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AS A DECAYING BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH. EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THEN BEGIN ON TUESDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF PATCHY, BUT OCCASIONALLY DENSE, FOG
DEVELOPING IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND LOWER BAYS AROUND THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASED RISK OF
STRONG RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 68 81 66 78 / 20 20 10 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 69 81 69 86 / 10 10 20 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 69 75 69 79 / 10 10 20 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR TXZ436>439.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CADY
LONG TERM....ADAMS
AVIATION...LUCHS
MARINE...ADAMS
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