603
FXUS64 KHGX 301130
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
630 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. THE MURKINESS SHOULD MIX OUT AS DAY TIME HEATING IS
APPLIED TO THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER, WE WILL NOT BE MIXING IN LESS
HUMID AIR TODAY. SO EXPECT THE HUMIDITY TO REMAIN PRETTY HIGH,
ESPECIALLY FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 80S AGAIN ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS.
THERE ARE SOME FEATURES OF INTEREST REGARDING TODAY'S WEATHER. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WILL HAVE AN
ASSOCIATED TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD OVER TEXAS TODAY.
MEANWHILE ALOFT, A VEERING AND HIGHLY SHEARED WIND PROFILE WILL BE
IN PLACE. THE BULK OF THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR REGION WHILE FCST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE PRESENCE OF A ~800-700MB CAP. THEREFORE, TODAY'S
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. THAT BEING SAID,
THERE REMAINS A CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT (THIS AFTERNOON,
EVENING, AND OVERNIGHT), PRIMARILY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. SPC HAS OUR NORTHERNMOST PINEY WOODS AREAS IN A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER. MOST OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES ARE
UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5). FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPPING
WILL BE WEAKER IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. WORTH MENTIONING THAT
GUIDANCE HAS RECENTLY BIASED TOWARDS TOO MUCH CAPPING. IN
ADDITION, WE ARE EXPECTING SOME MODEST PVA TO INTRODUCE AT LEAST
SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT OVER THE REGION. GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILE, HIGH
LL INSTABILITY, AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE, ANY UPDRAFT THAT MANAGES
TO OVERCOME THE MORE LIMITING PARAMETERS WILL HAVE A GOOD SHOT OF
PRODUCING DEEP CONVECTION AND POTENTIALLY A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
IF SEVERE STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP, THEN HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND
EVEN A TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT ARRIVES IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT. PERHAPS THE ADDED LL CONVERGENCE COULD HELP SPARK A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
SPEAKING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, LESS HUMID CONDITIONS (COOLER
FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES) ARE EXPECTED TO FILTER SOUTHWARD IN
ITS WAKE. DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE IN THE LOW 70S. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, OUR DEW POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S (LOWER NORTHERNMOST
COUNTIES, HIGHER AT THE COAST). I STILL THINK WE WILL HOLD ON TO
HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, WITH
70S FARTHER NORTH. SOME OF THE HI- RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE FRONT
COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN I AM GIVING IT CREDIT FOR. HRRR
SUGGESTS MOST OF THE CWA STAYS IN THE 70S. I'M SKEPTICAL WE'LL BE
THAT COOL BUT WE CAN ALWAYS DREAM.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFFSHORE ON MONDAY, BEFORE PUSHING
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF DENSE
FOG MONDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
ALSO BE THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND. BUT I'LL LET THE LONG
TERM METEOROLOGIST GO INTO THOSE DETAILS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
WITH THAT WEAK BOUNDARY NOW RETREATED TO THE NORTH, EXPECT
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA WITH HEAT INDICIES IN THE UPPER 80S. THERE
WILL BE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXITING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE WAA ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH EAST TEXAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE RED RIVER
VALLEY WHICH IS WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH POTENTIALLY THE
WEEKEND. WITH THIS FRONT TO THE NORTH INDUCING STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
AT THE SURFACE, AND A BIG UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE GREAT
BASIN CAUSING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER TEXAS WE CAN EXPECT A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION (WITH THE COAST STAYING A BIT COOLER AND
ONLY GETTING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S), BUT I WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF
WE GET INTO THE MID 90S BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS WELL
ACROSS THE REGION. IT ISN'T JUST THE HEAT THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
BRINGING, BUT ALSO THE HUMIDITY WITH HEAT INDICIES RISING INTO THE
MID TO POTENTIALLY UPPER 90S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THAT AFOREMENTIONED STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR THE RRV WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP THAT WAY WHICH COULD
BLEED INTO THE PINEY WOODS REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THOUGH
IF THIS BOUNDARY ENDS UP FURTHER SOUTH THEN RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
WITH IT (OR THE OTHER WAY TOO AS IT COULD WOBBLE FURTHER NORTH THUS
LEAVING ALL OF SE TEXAS DRY). AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND, SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS BEING EJECTED OUT OF THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST
MAY HELP DRAG THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR REGION AND
BRINGING RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF US. TRYING TO PREDICT THE EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL BEHAVE THIS FAR OUT IS
NEAR IMPOSSIBLE, SO JUST KNOW THAT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHETHER IT HAPPENS ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
FOWLER
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS NORTH OF I-10 ARE EXPECTED TO TREND TOWARDS
VFR BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON, WHILE AREAS FARTHER SOUTH
MAY STRUGGLE TO TO IMPROVE BEYOND HIGHER END MVFR CIGS. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PRIMARILY NORTH
OF HOUSTON. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH REGARDING WHETHER OR NOT THERE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO ALLOW WIDESPREAD ENOUGH SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS. SO FOR NOW, WE HAVE OPTED
TO KEEP VCSH. THE EXCEPTION IS UTS WHERE WE HAVE MENTION OF TS
VIA A PROB30 GROUP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF TSRA DOES
DEVELOPMENT, THEN A FEW STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. VIS/CIGS
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AGAIN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 149 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY THROUGH MONDAY (OR EVEN TUESDAY) WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY, BUT DENSE, SEA FOG DEVELOPING IN THE BAYS AND
NEARSHORE WATERS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS OUT THROUGH THE MID-
MORNING HOURS THIS MORNING, BUT IT COULD BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY IF DAYTIME HEATING ISN'T ENOUGH TO LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL. THE FOG WILL EITHER REDEVELOP OR PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING. A BOUNDARY WILL BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY, AND WHILE IT WILL
LIKELY NOT MAKE ITS WAY ALL THE WAY INTO THE COASTAL WATERS, IT WILL
BRING LIGHT, VARIABLE WINDS WHICH WILL HELP CONTINUE THE FOG THREAT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FOG POTENTIAL DECREASES
ON TUESDAY AS ONSHORE WINDS OF 15-20KTS DEVELOP. THIS ONSHORE FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN TO 20-25KT BY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO
LEAD TO INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS MIDWEEK TO AROUND 4-7FT ON WEDNESDAY
AND THEN 6-9FT BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
FOWLER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 83 64 76 57 / 30 20 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 83 71 84 64 / 20 20 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 75 69 77 68 / 10 20 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ436>439.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ330-335-
350-355.
SHORT TERM...SELF
LONG TERM....FOWLER
AVIATION...SELF
MARINE...FOWLER
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