351
FXUS64 KHGX 302350
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
650 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 77
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA
NORTH OF THE HOUSTON METRO. IT INCLUDES BRAZOS, GRIMES, MADISON,
WALKER, SAN JACINTO, HOUSTON, TRINITY, AND POLK COUNTIES. THE
PRIMARY HAZARD IS LARGE HAIL, WITH UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL
POSSIBLE IN SEVERE STORMS. SECONDARY HAZARDS ARE A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES AND SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
IT HAS INDEED BEEN A CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM,
WITH NO CONVECTION OF NOTE HAVING DEVELOPED AS OF 3:30 PM CDT
DESPITE A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND CONSISTENT
DEPICTIONS OF STORM INITIATION IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS
MORNING'S HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT. RECENT MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES SB CAPE VALUES REACHING IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SE TX, ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF DEEP NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE AND 25-30 KT+ OF WIND SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM LEVEL. PERHAPS
THE MISSING PIECE OF THE EQUATION IS LIFT -- WE REMAIN LARGELY ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THE INFLUENCE OF A MIDLEVEL TROUGH TO OUR W/NW
AND HAVE ALSO YET TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES LIKE THE SEA BREEZE. WHETHER DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
ULTIMATELY ALLOWS THE INLAND PROPAGATION OF A BOUNDARY THAT COULD
TRIGGER STORMS REMAINS TO BE SEEN, BUT REMAINS AN AREA OF FOCUS
OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO.
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOCUS HEAVILY ON THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE LOOKING LESS
FAVORABLE THAN EARLIER TODAY, AN ABUNDANCE OF NEAR-SURFACE
MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AS WELL AS THE ADVANCING
SHORTWAVE AND POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES COULD VERY WELL
STILL TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED STRONG STORMS THAT WOULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS. CONDITIONS
REMAIN MOST FAVORABLE ACROSS THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND PINEY WOODS,
WHICH WILL BE IN THE BEST REGION FOR LARGE-SCALE LIFE. HOWEVER, WE
ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE TO INITIATE AND THAT THE AREA WILL END UP BEING LARGELY
RAIN FREE GIVEN HOW TODAY HAS EVOLVED SO FAR. NONETHELESS, IT
REMAINS PRUDENT TO REMAIN UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST AND
HAVE A WAY TO RECEIVE WARNINGS INTO THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT, THE PRESENCE OF DEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHTER
WINDS WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG, WHICH COULD BECOME DENSE
AT TIMES IN SOME LOCATIONS. REDUCED VISIBILITIES COULD LINGER INTO
THE MORNING HOURS OF TOMORROW AND COULD REMAIN A FACTOR DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE. TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70, AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS AND WARM ADVECTION.
A LESS ACTIVE DAY ARRIVES ON MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
EJECTS FURTHER EASTWARD. A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
TRAVERSE THE AREA AND STALL NEAR THE COAST, PROVIDING A SLIGHT
COOLDOWN TO THE NORTHERN ZONES AND A BRIEF SHIFT TO A NW WIND.
HIGHS AROUND THE HOUSTON METRO WILL STILL REACH THE MID 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE PINEY
WOODS TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 ACROSS GREATER HOUSTON AND AT THE
COAST.
CADY
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG-
TERM PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH
INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE AREA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RETREAT
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL ALLOW WAA TO
INCREASE IN OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH EAST TX DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY; HOWEVER, IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY.
THE POSITION OF THIS FRONT WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SW/GREAT BASIN
AREA WILL RESULT IN SW FLOW ALOFT (AND YOU GUESSED IT...WARMER
TEMPERATURES). WITH THESE TWO FACTORS IN PLAY, EXPECT UNSEASONABLY
WARM WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK THIS WEEK. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. TEMPERATURES
COULD INCREASE A BIT MORE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS
REACHING INTO THE MID-90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE MILD TO
WARM SIDE AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 60S AND 70S EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL KEEP RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE LOW TO MEDIUM RANGE EACH DAY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY (AFTERNOON FEATURING THE HIGHEST POPS). THIS TREND IS
MOSTLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-10 (PINEY WOODS AREA LOOKS TO BE THE
PRIME SPOT FOR PRECIPITATION IN THIS INSTANCE). ANY DEVIATION IN
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD RESULT IN INCREASED RAIN CHANCES (AND
EXPANDING CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH) OR DECREASED CHANCES (THAT WILL
LEAVE THE AREA DRY).
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST MAY HELP TO PUSH THIS BOUNDARY INTO OUR REGION
AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF SE TEXAS. THIS IS LATE IN THE
PERIOD; HOWEVER, SO TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION OF THESE SHORTWAVES
ARE A BIT OF AN UNKNOWN VARIABLE AT THIS POINT.
ADAMS
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING, AND ULTIMATELY IFR (AND EVEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LIFR) LATE TONIGHT, ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG CLOSER TO THE
COAST. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
NORTH OF CLL/UTS, AND BOTH THOSE SITES ARE IN THE NEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 2 AM TONIGHT. GIVEN THE HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS, HAVE RESTRICTED TSRA
MENTION FOR NOW TO A PROB30. SHOULD CONFIDENCE INCREASE WITH
EVENING EVOLUTION, WILL NEED TO AMEND TO STEP THE WORDING UP.
ULTIMATELY, SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT LATER IN THE MORNING AND
SCATTERING TO VFR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND VERY WEAK FRONT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
THE STORY FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, AND POTENTIALLY AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY, BUT
DENSE, SEA FOG DEVELOPING IN THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS. FOG HAS,
FOR THE MOST PART, CLEARED OUT OR DECREASED IN DENSITY. THE FOG WILL
EITHER REDEVELOP OR PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY MORNING. A BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH ON MONDAY, AND WHILE IT WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE ITS WAY ALL
THE WAY INTO THE COASTAL WATERS, IT WILL BRING LIGHT, VARIABLE WINDS
WHICH WILL HELP CONTINUE THE FOG THREAT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. FOG POTENTIAL DECREASES ON TUESDAY AS ONSHORE WINDS
OF 15-20KTS DEVELOP. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TO 20-25KT BY
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO LEAD TO INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS
MIDWEEK TO AROUND 4-7FT ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN 6-9FT BY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
ADAMS/FOWLER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 64 76 59 84 / 30 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 71 84 65 84 / 20 10 10 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 70 78 69 77 / 10 10 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ436>439.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CADY
LONG TERM....ADAMS
AVIATION...LUCHS
MARINE...ADAMS
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