930
FXUS64 KHGX 311107
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
607 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA TODAY, GRADUALLY
PUSHING LOWER DEW POINTS INTO THE REGION. THEREFORE, MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL FEEL A LITTLE LESS HUMID BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
MAY OF US WILL STILL FIND OURSELVES SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS
MORNING. THOSE THAT DO WILL EXPERIENCE AREAS OF FOG AND PERHAPS
EVEN SOME DRIZZLE OR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS, WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S. HOWEVER, I THINK MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA
WILL HOLD ON TO HIGHS IN THE 80S. SOUTHERN / INTERIOR COASTAL
COUNTIES MAY BE IN THE UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE DEPENDENT ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT CLOUDS WILL
BREAK IN THE AFTERNOON. IF IT TAKES LONGER FOR THE CLOUDS TO
BREAK, THEN MY FORECAST AFTERNOON TEMPS COULD BE A LITTLE TOO
WARM.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST LATER
TODAY, BEFORE PUSHING NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT. WARM, HUMID, GULF
AIR WILL PUSH NORTHWARD IN ITS WAKE. FOG MAY OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. BY TUESDAY, THE FRONT LIFTS WELL TO OUR NORTH WHILE
A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ENHANCES ONSHORE FLOW.
THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A WARM, HUMID, AND BREEZY TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S.
SELF
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S FOR MOST OF THE REGION (THE COAST WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S). HEAT INDICIES WILL BE IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 90S AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPS DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RUNNING AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY GETTING DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S.
THERE WILL BE A STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK THAT WILL BE TRIGGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT THIS BOUNDARY WOBBLES SOUTH ENOUGH TO BRING SOME
SCATTERED STORMS DOWN INTO THE PINEY WOODS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE OVER HEAD. A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW MOVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEK WILL MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL PUSH THAT STALLED
BOUNDARY THATS BEEN HANGING AROUND TO OUR NORTH INTO SE TEXAS
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR REGION. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN CHANCES WILL COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY
WITH COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.
FOWLER
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER SOUTHWARD BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TODAY, RESULTING IN A GRADUAL TREND FROM MVFR TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. AREAS OF IFR ARE OCCURRING THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY NEAR
THEH COAST. EVEN THOSE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR,
THOUGH IT WILL TAKE LONGER. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT FROM THE
NORTH TODAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT, BRINGING A CHANCE OF LOWER VIS/CIGS LATE OVERNIGNT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
PATCHY, BUT DENSE AT TIMES, FOG HAS DEVELOPING IN THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AND LOWER BAYS AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS - SO A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. EXPECT
IMPROVEMENTS THIS AFTERNOON (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY), BUT FOG WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK, STALLED
BOUNDARY NEARBY WILL CAUSE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS INCREASING THE
FOG DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15KT WILL
BEGIN ON TUESDAY, WHICH COMBINED WITH RISING TEMPERATURES SHOULD
LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY NIGHT - BUT, CAN'T OUT RULE AN
ISOLATED PATCH OF FOG HERE OR THERE. THIS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS
TO AROUND 205KT BY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO LEAD TO
INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS MIDWEEK TO AROUND 4-7FT ON WEDNESDAY AND
THEN 6-9FT BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.
FOWLER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 77 59 83 70 / 0 0 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 85 66 83 72 / 10 0 0 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 81 69 80 71 / 10 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ330-335-
350-355.
SHORT TERM...SELF
LONG TERM....FOWLER
AVIATION...SELF
MARINE...FOWLER
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