669
FXUS64 KHGX 312000
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
300 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
TEMPERATURES THUS FAR TODAY HAVE SAT A FEW DEGREES UNDER WHAT WAS
INITIALLY EXPECTED, WITH MOST OF GREATER HOUSTON IN THE LOW 80S AND
THE NORTHERN ZONES IN THE 70S (PALACIOS BEING THE OUTLIER AT 87).
THIS IS THANKS IN LARGE PART TO THE SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF WHAT IS NOW A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST, WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MODEST "COLD" ADVECTION
IN ITS WAKE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW, RETURNING THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN TO A
TYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BRING US A WARM AND HUMID
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. STILL, MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL TAKE SOME TIME
TO BEING UP SURFACE DEW POINTS AND AS SUCH IT SHOULD FEEL EVER SO
SLIGHTLY LESS STICKY HEADING OUT THE DOOR TOMORROW WITH DEW POINTS
STILL IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60 FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE HOUSTON METRO AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING, ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST,
BUT MOST FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL WATERS/BAYS.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAIL INTO TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S AND DEW POINTS AGAIN BREAKING THE 70 DEGREE MARK.
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS A RESULT OF THE SHIFT BACK TO
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WORK TO INHIBIT AFTERNOON HEATING SOMEWHAT. AS LEE
CYCLOGENESIS DEEPENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CONUS, WINDS COULD GET A BIT BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING AS HIGH AS 20 MPH OR SO. OVERNIGHT LOWS TOMORROW
NIGHT ARE UNLIKELY TO DROP BELOW 70 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
CADY
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
BY MIDWEEK, A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST CENTRAL U.S.
WILL BE AMPLIFYING WITH EMBEDDED MID/UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING
ACROSS TEXAS IN THE DOWNSTREAM SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS NW AREAS ON WED/THU. BY
FRIDAY, THE DEEP UPPER TOUGH WILL BEGIN EDGING CLOSER TO SE TEXAS
AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS AREAWIDE WILL BE ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
AFT AND EVENING HOURS. WE MAY SEE SOME STRONG STORMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY, STAY TUNED FOR MORE ON THAT AS
WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.
WE WILL SEE QUITE THE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE WILL SEE MAX TEMPS 85 TO 90 WED-FRI, THEN
ONLY REACHING THE 60S ON SUN. MIN TEMPS WILL FALL WELL BELOW
NORMAL INTO THE 40S TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK. WILL ALSO SEE THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN CONTINUE ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS HANGING BACK TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
WOOD
AVIATION
(18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
LIGHT NORTH WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS A
VERY WEAK COLD FRONT LINGERS NEAR THE COAST. CLOUD DECKS WILL
CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING,
WITH VARIABLE WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WIND BY EARLY MORNING. MVFR CIGS, ALONG WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG, WILL DEVELOP HEADING INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH SOME
GUSTY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
CADY
MARINE
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
EXPECTING TO SEE AREAS OF SEA FOG REDEVELOP TONIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK, STALLED BOUNDARY NEARBY WILL CAUSE
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS INCREASING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15KT WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY, WHICH
COMBINED WITH RISING TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT
TUESDAY NIGHT - BUT, A FEW PATCHES OF FOG ARE STILL A POSSIBILITY.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER TO AROUND 20KT BY WEDNESDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO LEAD TO INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS MIDWEEK TO
AROUND 4-8FT ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN 6-10FT BY THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WOOD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 57 82 70 85 / 0 0 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 64 81 71 86 / 0 0 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 69 78 70 79 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CADY
LONG TERM....WOOD
AVIATION...CADY
MARINE...WOOD
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