741
FXUS64 KHGX 261721
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1221 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
THIS WEEKEND BRINGS US A SWITCH TO FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR A MINUTE, BUT ANOTHER SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL RETURN
US TO A PATTERN OF DAILY RAIN OPPORTUNITIES IN THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE KEY THOUGHTS FOR THE FORECAST:
- TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL BE UP AS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN COMES TO
AN END, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS DRIFTING FROM VERY NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES IN THE LOWER 80S INTO THE UPPER HALF OF THE 80S.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THIS TIME WILL DRIFT UP INTO THE 90S, WHILE
WET BULB GLOBE TEMPERATURE VALUES ALSO LOOK TO REACH INTO THE
ELEVATED AND MODERATE RANGES. WHILE NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THAT WE
ARE AT THE END OF APRIL, IT IS INDEED TIME TO BEGIN THINKING
ABOUT HEAT ACCLIMATION AND MITIGATING HEAT STRESS IF YOU ARE
ESPECIALLY SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND/OR PLANNING LOTS OF STRENUOUS
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.
- CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFO AS WE DRAW CLOSER
TO THE RETURN OF RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE BACK HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SLOW-MOVING FRONTS WITH HIGH MOISTURE IN THE SPRING CAN OFTEN
CAUSE LOCALIZED ISSUES WITH HEAVY RAIN, THOUGH THE PRECISE
THREAT LEVEL WILL DEPEND ON FEATURES AND TIMING THAT CANNOT BE
CONFIDENTLY FORECAST AT LONG RANGE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS - OR REALLY, JUST A NICE LOOK AT THE WV
SATELLITE IMAGERY - SHOWS A RIDGE AXIS BUILDING UP OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS. AND SO, WHILE WE HAVE THUNDERSTORMS GOING
ON OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS, THERE'S NO CONCERN FOR RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. INSTEAD,
WE'LL BE CHASING DIURNAL CLOUD TRENDS (SPOILER ALERT: OVERNIGHT
STRATUS, GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CU) AND TEMPERATURES
(ANOTHER SPOILER ALERT: WARMER THAN AVERAGE) FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
EVEN THROUGH OUR RAINIER STRETCH OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, WE
STILL GENERALLY MANAGED TO SNAG HIGH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND LATE-APRIL
AVERAGES IN THE LOWER 80S. WITH FAIR WEATHER AND HIGH PRESSURE TO
PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND, WE CAN EXPECT THOSE HIGHS TO DRIFT UPWARDS.
DIVING INTO THE NBM DISTRIBUTION, AS LONG AS YOU ARE NOT IN A
COUNTY TOUCHING THE GULF, YOU ARE MORE LIKELY THAN NOT TO SEE
HIGHS EXCEED 85 DEGREES TODAY AND TOMORROW. TOMORROW, WE'LL EVEN
SEE SOME LOW PROBABILITIES EMERGE TO EXCEED 90 DEGREES WELL
INLAND (THINK COLLEGE STATION AND CROCKETT).
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
MONDAY SHOULD STILL FEATURE ANOTHER DAY OF BENIGN WEATHER WITH A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPANNING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THOUGH, THIS
WILL SLOWLY CHANGE AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES
TRANSITIONS TO AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS PUSHES
EASTWARD. RAIN CHANCES RISE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THIS SYSTEMS DRAWS
CLOSER TO SE TEXAS, SUPPLYING ADDITIONAL SHORTAVE ENERGY/IMPULSES.
MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAPE A SLOW-
MOVING COLD FRONT/QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA/THE ARKLATEX AREA BY WEDNESDAY, SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR
SHOWER/STORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUES EASTWARD. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OVERALL LOOK FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AROUND, BUT PRIMARILY WELL WEST
OF THE I-45 CORRIDOR. LOOK FOR LOWER STRATUS TO FILL IN LATER
TONIGHT. SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MVFR RANGE, CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME HIGHER END IFR CONDITIONS MIXED IN. AM EXPECTING SOME PATCHY
FOG AS WELL, BUT WITH WIND SPEEDS A BIT HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT,
THINK OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULDN'T BE AS PREVALENT. GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS MID MORNING ONWARD AS CIGS/VIS HEAD BACK UP
INTO VFR TERRITORY. 47
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
ONSHORE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET CAN BE
EXPECTED UP THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS WILL
ALSO BRING A HIGHER RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG GULF-FACING BEACHES.
MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 88 68 88 69 / 20 10 10 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 87 70 87 71 / 0 10 10 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 81 74 81 74 / 0 10 10 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LUCHS
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...LUCHS
MARINE...03
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