874
FXUS64 KHGX 270804
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
304 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
..NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
WE ARE INTO A WARM AND FAIR WEATHER PATTERN, BUT THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK LOOKS TO SEE US SHIFT BACK INTO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WHEN ANOTHER FRONT SLOGS INTO THE REGION. SOME OF THE TOP
THINGS TO REMEMBER ABOUT THE FORECAST INTO THE NEW WEEK:
- LIKE MANY LATE SPRING FRONTS, THIS BOUNDARY WILL STRUGGLE TO
PUSH MUCH INTO OUR AREA, IF AT ALL. BUT WHERE IT DOES, THERE
WILL BE AMPLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. A
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAIN (THREAT LEVEL 1 OF 4) IS IN
PLACE IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY,
ROUGHLY NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO LIVINGSTON LINE.
- TEMPERATURES TODAY LOOK TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WITH
INLAND LOCATIONS REACHING UP INTO THE UPPER 80S AGAIN. WARM
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WORK WEEK, BUT SOME INCREASED
CLOUDINESS SHOULD KNOCK A COUPLE DEGREES OFF OF AFTERNOON HIGHS.
- AT AREA BEACHES, PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY RESULT
IN HIGHER WATER LEVELS AT HIGH TIDE, AND INCREASED THREATS OF
RIP CURRENTS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING IS THE NAME OF THE GAME OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE LOUISIANA COAST, GIVING US PERSISTENT LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS. THIS HOLDS THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS, BUT
FROM 700 MB UP, THE RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE
WESTERN GULF COAST. THIS IS A RECIPE FOR A WARM, HUMID STRETCH
WITH FAIR WEATHER AND THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR.
FROM A START IN THE UPPER 60S AND AROUND 70 DEGREES, WE SHOULD GET
RIGHT BACK INTO THE UPPER HALF OF THE 80S FOR ALL BUT THE GULF
COAST, WHICH WILL GET HELD BACK IN THE LOWER 80S BY THE MODERATING
GULF WATERS. WHILE TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL GO VERY SIMILAR TO
THIS EARLY MORNING, WE MAY NOT REACH QUITE AS HIGH IN THE
AFTERNOON, PERHAPS ONLY INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S, KNOCKING
JUST A FEW DEGREES OFF OF TODAY. THE REASONING BEHIND THIS IS THAT
THE RIDGING SETUP LOOKS TO MAKE ITS WAY A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST
AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WE MAY EVEN SEE
A LITTLE BIT OF MIDLEVEL VORTICITY ROLL THROUGH. ULTIMATELY, THE
RESULT SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS. NOT A BIG
DIFFERENCE, BUT ENOUGH TO SHAVE A BIT OF HEAT OFF THE TOP.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO WARM AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE MAJORITY OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH MAX HEAT INDICIES IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
COOLER THAN FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT COOL
DOWN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN SE TEXAS JUST THANKS TO INCREASED MOISTURE
AND PVA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING (COULD
BE AS EARLY AS MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR AS LATE AS NOON THURSDAY)
AND HOW FAR THE COLD FRONT MAKES IT INTO THE REGION BEFORE
STALLING/RETREATING BACK NORTH (COULD MAKE IT TO I-10 OR OFF THE
COAST). SOME COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY FILTER INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, BUT ONSHORE FLOW QUICKLY RETURNS
BRINGING BACK WARM, HUMID CONDITIONS. PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BUT COVERAGE IS LOOKING LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
FOWLER
AVIATION
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AROUND 1200-1800FT WILL BEGIN WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE AREA WITH UTS AND CXO POSSIBLY DROPPING
DOWN TO IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES DUE TO CIGS AROUND 700FT. PATCHY
FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE, BUT LIKELY NOT AS DENSE AS LAST NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE MID-MORNING AS THE CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT, BUT RETURN LATE TOMORROW NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS
RETURNING.
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 3-6KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING, INCREASING TO AROUND 8-12KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN BELOW 7KTS BY SUNSET.
FOWLER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
ONSHORE FLOW OF 7-15KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH
GUSTS TO 20KT BECOMING POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW SEAS
OF 2-4FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, INCREASING TO 4-6FT
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE WINDS GET SLIGHTLY HIGHER. MINIMAL
RAIN CHANCES EXIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY
MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING OR
AFTERNOON.
THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RISK OF STRONG
RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH RIP CURRENT STATEMENTS POSSIBLY
NEEDED BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. ABNORMALLY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
AND THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL
TIDES WITH HIGH TIDE ON TUESDAY MORNING RISING TO AROUND 3FT ABOVE
MLLW AND AROUND 3.5FT ABOVE MLLW FOR HIGH TIDE ON WEDNESDAY.
FOWLER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 88 69 87 70 / 10 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 87 70 85 71 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 81 74 80 74 / 10 10 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LUCHS
LONG TERM....FOWLER
AVIATION...FOWLER
MARINE...FOWLER
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