745
FXUS64 KHGX 272312
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
612 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
TOUGH TO BEAT A FCST OF PERSISTENCE. DESPITE A CONTINUED SE/S LLVL
FLOW, PREVALENT MID/UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
PRECIP MINIMAL AT BEST. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT-MORNING CLOUDINESS
FOLLOWED BY PCLDY AFTERNOONS & EVENINGS WITH LOWS AROUND 70 AND
HIGHS IN THE 80S. 47
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS WEEK WILL FEATURE
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WITH THE COMBINATION OF ONSHORE/SOUTHERLY
FLOW FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE 700 MB LAYER AND SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE WITH PWAT
VALUES NEARING 1.6" BY MID-WEEK.
ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEK, AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, COURTESY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND POCKETS OF
ENHANCED LIFT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MODELS SEEMED TO HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE BOUNDARY
PUSHING INTO SE TEXAS, AND INSTEAD HAVE IT RETREATING BACK INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS JUST BEFORE IT GETS TO THE CWA. IN ANY CASE, THIS IS
PRETTY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND MODELS SEEM TO STILL BE
TRYING TO GRASP A CONSISTENT STORY. IF THE FRONT DOES INDEED PUSH
THROUGH BY THURSDAY, WE WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER AND DRIER
AIR BEFORE THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW. EVEN IF THE BOUNDARY DOES NOT
PUSH THROUGH, WHILE WE WILL MISS OUT ON THE COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS, RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES PASS OVERHEAD AND INTERACT WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
HIGHS FOR THIS WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. MAX
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH THE LOW 90S. AS MENTIONED BY THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER, LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL ON THURSDAY MAY
OBSERVE COOLER THAN FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES.
LOWS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S INLAND AND IN THE LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST AND POTENTIALLY
THE HOUSTON METRO.
ADAMS
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH BREEZY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GOING ON A DOWNWARD TREND SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. MVFR CEILINGS WILL FILTER IN AGAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS. ADDITIONALLY, ADDED IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR
CXO AND SGR BASED ON WHAT OCCURRED PREVIOUSLY ON SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN WINDOW FOR THE LOWEST
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IS 08Z-14Z. AFTER 15Z, CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE AND SHOULD BE BACK TO VFR BY 17Z. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ONCE AGAIN WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 15 KT AND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
BATISTE
MARINE
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
ONSHORE FLOW OF 7-15KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH
GUSTS TO 20KT BECOMING POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW SEAS
OF 2-4FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, INCREASING TO 4-6FT
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE WINDS GET SLIGHTLY HIGHER. MINIMAL
RAIN CHANCES EXIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY
MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON.
THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RISK OF STRONG
RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH RIP CURRENT STATEMENTS POSSIBLY
NEEDED AS EARLY AS MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF ABNORMALLY
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES WITH HIGH TIDE ON TUESDAY MORNING RISING TO
AROUND 3FT ABOVE MLLW AND AROUND 3.5FT ABOVE MLLW FOR HIGH TIDE ON
WEDNESDAY. TIDES AT THIS LEVEL HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO RESULT IN COASTAL
FLOODING ON GULF-FACING BEACHES. BE MINDFUL IF PLANNING TO TRAVEL TO
THE BEACH THIS WEEK WITH MULTIPLE HAZARDS IN THE FORECAST.
ADAMS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 70 88 69 87 / 0 10 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 71 86 72 85 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 75 82 75 81 / 0 0 10 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....ADAMS
AVIATION...BATISTE
MARINE...ADAMS
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