383
FXUS64 KHGX 280545
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1245 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025
..NEW LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
TOUGH TO BEAT A FCST OF PERSISTENCE. DESPITE A CONTINUED SE/S LLVL
FLOW, PREVALENT MID/UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
PRECIP MINIMAL AT BEST. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT-MORNING CLOUDINESS
FOLLOWED BY PCLDY AFTERNOONS & EVENINGS WITH LOWS AROUND 70 AND
HIGHS IN THE 80S. 47
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025
BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY THERE WILL BE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE THE MAIN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST, WEAK SHORTWAVES OUT AHEAD OF
IT, DAYTIME HEATING, AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND COULD LEAD TO
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE TEXAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW
WILL BE APPROACHING SE TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
INCREASING THE RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. HOWEVER, AS WE GET LATER AND
LATER INTO THE SPRING SEASON/APPROACHING SUMMER, THESE COLD FRONTS
ARE GETTING WEAKER AND WEAKER, AND THUS BECOME LESS LIKELY OF FULLY
CLEARING (OR EVEN ENTERING) OUR AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND
FOR THIS FRONT TO STALL OUT NEAR THE PINEY WOODS/BRAZOS VALLEY
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF I-10
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE HANGING
AROUND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL ALSO BE PASSING SHORTWAVES ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WHICH COMBINED WITH THE NEARBY BOUNDARY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S MOST DAYS FOR INLAND
AREAS (COASTAL AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S). THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY AS INCREASED WAA AHEAD OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW 90S FOR AREAS WEST OF
I-45 BUT NORTH OF I-10. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
FOWLER
AVIATION
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE MVFR
CIGS AROUND 1500FT RETURN TO THE REGION THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE MID-MORNING HOURS. PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT CLL, UTS, AND CXO WITH CIGS DOWN TO 700FT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
OF 7-10KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING, INCREASING TO 10-15KT
WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, AND THEN
AGAIN AFTER SUNSET. PERSISTENCE CONTINUES WITH THE RETURN OF MVFR
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
FOWLER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025
ONSHORE FLOW OF 7-15KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH
GUSTS TO 20KT BECOMING POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW SEAS
OF 2-4FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, INCREASING TO 4-6FT
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE WINDS GET SLIGHTLY HIGHER. SMALL
CRAFT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO EXERCISE CAUTION AT TIMES BEGINNING
TUESDAY. MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES EXIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT AN
APPROACHING BOUNDARY MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RISK OF STRONG
RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH RIP CURRENT STATEMENTS POSSIBLY
NEEDED BY TUESDAY. ABNORMALLY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND THE
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES WITH
HIGH TIDE ON TUESDAY MORNING RISING TO AROUND 3FT ABOVE MLLW AND
AROUND 3.5FT ABOVE MLLW FOR HIGH TIDE ON WEDNESDAY.
FOWLER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 69 87 71 87 / 0 0 10 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 72 85 73 86 / 10 10 0 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 75 81 75 82 / 10 10 0 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....FOWLER
AVIATION...FOWLER
MARINE...FOWLER
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