393
FXUS64 KHGX 281144
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
644 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025
WARM AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK, BUT
CHANGE COMES IN THE MIDDLE WEEK AS WE WATCH TO SEE JUST HOW DEEP A
COLD FRONT CAN PUSH INTO TEXAS. WHILE THE FOCUS OF STORMS ON THIS
FRONT DOES APPEAR TO BE TO OUR NORTH AT THIS TIME, THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN OUR AREA NORTH OF THE HOUSTON
METRO, AND WILL BE A SITUATION TO MONITOR AS WE COME UP ON
WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE KEY POINTS FOR THE WEEK TO COME:
- ON WEDNESDAY, THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN FOR A
PORTION OF THE AREA NORTH OF THE HOUSTON METRO. A MARGINAL RISK
IS A THREAT LEVEL 1 OF 4 IN AN EXCESSIVE RAIN OUTLOOK.
- WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE PEAK DAY THIS WEEK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER, WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.
- PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE END OF APRIL. THOUGH CLOUDS AND - LATER IN THE
WEEK - SOME RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT IN
CHECK, WE SHOULD STILL EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA MOST DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025
UNTIL THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON TUESDAY
NIGHT, RIDGING REMAINS THE NAME OF THE GAME OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. AS A RESULT, WE'RE BASICALLY JUST ROLLING RIGHT ALONG
WITH FAIR WEATHER, ONSHORE WINDS, AND WARM CONDITIONS. IN FACT,
YESTERDAY WE MANAGED TO SNAG A DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE AT GALVESTON, TO GIVE A BIT OF AN IMAGE OF HOW WARM
OUR NIGHTS ARE RIGHT NOW. WHILE NOT FULL SUMMER, THESE ARE
DEFINITELY NIGHTS THAT REMIND US THAT HOT, MUGGY SUMMER NIGHTS ARE
NEARLY UPON US. IN THE AFTERNOON, WE'VE TAPPED THE BRAKES
SOMEWHAT. THIS RIDGING IS STILL NOT EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG, AND WE
DO HAVE OVERNIGHT STRATUS TO BREAK UP. SO WHILE NOT AS CLOSE TO
RECORDS AS THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE, WE'RE STILL MANAGING TO GET UP
HIGHER INTO THE 80S THAN AREA AVERAGES ARE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW.
BEYOND THE TEMPERATURES, ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE, BUT I ANTICIPATE
THEM TO BE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT (MAYBE REACHING? MORE ON THAT IN THE LONG
TERM) AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE GETTING TIGHTER. I
WOULDN'T ANTICIPATE SOMETHING THAT THREATENS ANY SORT OF WIND
ADVISORY, BUT STILL LOOKING FOR AFTERNOON PEAK WINDS SOLIDLY INTO
THE TEENS, WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 20S. THOUGH
VERY INFREQUENT, IT DOES APPEAR LIKELY TO SEE AN OCCASIONAL GUST
AROUND/ABOVE 25 MPH WEST OF THE HOUSTON METRO.
FINALLY, THOUGH FAIR WEATHER IS GOING TO LARGELY DOMINATE THIS
PERIOD, WE DO HAVE AMPLE MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW THAT
TENDS TO HAVE A BIT OF NATURAL ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR OUR AREA. AS A
RESULT, THERE MAY BE SOME FAST, BRIEF, LIGHT SPRINKLES
PARTICULARLY AT THE COAST IN THE PRE-DAWN AND VERY EARLY MORNING
HOURS. BECAUSE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE JUST A TRACE AND NOT
MEASURABLE, IT'S NOT ENOUGH TO REALLY PUSH POPS UP MORE THAN JUST
A FEW PERCENT. BUT...IF YOU HAVE A REALLY EARLY COMMUTE AND GET A
SPRINKLE FOR SEVERAL SECONDS, IT WON'T BE THE BIGGEST SURPRISE FOR
YOU.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025
BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY THERE WILL BE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE THE MAIN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST, WEAK SHORTWAVES OUT AHEAD OF
IT, DAYTIME HEATING, AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND COULD LEAD TO
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE TEXAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW
WILL BE APPROACHING SE TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
INCREASING THE RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. HOWEVER, AS WE GET LATER AND
LATER INTO THE SPRING SEASON/APPROACHING SUMMER, THESE COLD FRONTS
ARE GETTING WEAKER AND WEAKER, AND THUS BECOME LESS LIKELY OF FULLY
CLEARING (OR EVEN ENTERING) OUR AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND
FOR THIS FRONT TO STALL OUT NEAR THE PINEY WOODS/BRAZOS VALLEY
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF I-10
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE HANGING
AROUND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL ALSO BE PASSING SHORTWAVES ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WHICH COMBINED WITH THE NEARBY BOUNDARY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S MOST DAYS FOR INLAND
AREAS (COASTAL AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S). THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY AS INCREASED WAA AHEAD OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW 90S FOR AREAS WEST OF
I-45 BUT NORTH OF I-10. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
FOWLER
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025
ANOTHER MORNING WITH A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA, BUT ALL THE TAF SITES ARE CURRENTLY BOUNCING BETWEEN MVFR
AND VFR, DEPENDING ON WHETHER THE LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS IS SCT OR
BKN. EXPECT THIS FOR A HANDFUL OF HOURS BEFORE WIDESPREAD VFR
PREVAILS, WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS 10G20(ISH) OUT OF THE S/SE TO
FOLLOW. GUSTS TAIL OFF AFTER SUNDOWN, WITH STRATUS RETURNING
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025
ONSHORE FLOW OF 7-15KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH
GUSTS TO 20KT BECOMING POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW SEAS
OF 2-4FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, INCREASING TO 4-6FT
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE WINDS GET SLIGHTLY HIGHER. SMALL
CRAFT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO EXERCISE CAUTION AT TIMES BEGINNING
TUESDAY. MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES EXIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT AN
APPROACHING BOUNDARY MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RISK OF STRONG
RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH RIP CURRENT STATEMENTS POSSIBLY
NEEDED BY TUESDAY. ABNORMALLY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND THE
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES WITH
HIGH TIDE ON TUESDAY MORNING RISING TO AROUND 3FT ABOVE MLLW AND
AROUND 3.5FT ABOVE MLLW FOR HIGH TIDE ON WEDNESDAY.
FOWLER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 87 69 86 70 / 0 0 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 86 71 85 72 / 0 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 81 74 82 75 / 0 10 10 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LUCHS
LONG TERM....FOWLER
AVIATION...LUCHS
MARINE...FOWLER
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