223
FXUS64 KHGX 282119
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
419 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
WE REMAIN WITHIN A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR
SO, WITH CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE RISEN INTO THE
LOWER 80S AS OF 330 PM CDT, PERHAPS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES LOWER
THAN EXPECTED DUE TO A SLIGHT OVERPERFORMANCE OF CLOUD COVER.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WIND
GUSTS APPROACHING 25 MPH AREA-WIDE. WINDS SHOULD RELAX WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING THIS EVENING, ACCOMPANIED BY AN EXPANSION
OF LOW STRATUS THAT WILL WORK TO INHIBIT RADIATIVE COOLING. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FOLLOW THAT OF THE PAST FEW DAYS, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS AROUND 70 (75 AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST). SOME OVERNIGHT
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE, BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH
TO MITIGATE ANY WIDESPREAD AND/OR DENSE FOG. STILL, TYPICALLY
PRONE AREAS COULD SEE SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY AROUND SUNRISE.
IT'S EFFECTIVELY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST TOMORROW AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOW 80S AT THE COAST AND THE MID 80S FURTHER INLAND. THE
PREVAILING MIDLEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN HEADING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT THE ARRIVAL OF A FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE ISN'T
EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY (MORE ON THAT BELOW). ANOTHER NIGHT OF
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S IS ON THE CARDS YET AGAIN.
CADY
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AND
COULD CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
FOR STARTERS, A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY, SOUTHEAST TX WILL BE WEDGED BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST CONUS AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TX. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER US AND CONSEQUENTLY
STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, ROUGHLY BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF AROUND 25 MPH. IN ADDITION, A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVERHEAD AND COULD CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHER GUSTS
AT TIMES.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL
TX REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND PINEY WOODS REGION. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL TO OUR NORTHEAST SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGES, LOCAL PWS RISE TO 1.3 TO 1.7
INCHES, AND DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES, WE CAN EXPECT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TX DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. THE HIGHER POPS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
OVER AREAS NORTH OF I-10. WE MAY SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POSSIBLY MINOR
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WPC HAS PLACED A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN (LEVEL 1 OF 4) MAINLY FOR THE AREAS
OF THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND PINEY WOODS.
RAIN CHANCES SOMEWHAT EBB ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE ON THURSDAY AS THE BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR OUR
NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES, LEADING TO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IT WILL ALSO BE WARMER, WITH HIGHS RISING INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. A SIMILAR SET UP CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY (ALTHOUGH STORM CHANCES MAY BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
THURSDAY), DUE TO ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVING INTO OUR
LOCAL AREA AND STALLS. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL,
TEMPERATURES COULD BE COOLER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND WE MAY BE
LOOKING AT HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 80S BY SATURDAY. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY,
CONTINUING OUR CHANCES FOR DAYTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS. CONDITIONS
LOOK TO IMPROVE NEXT MONDAY THANKS TO DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE.
COTTO
AVIATION
(18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO VFR LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
WINDS REMAINING OUT OF THE SE AT AROUND 10-15 KNOTS. GUSTS OF
20-25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES, WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO
UNDER 10 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. MVFR CIGS RETURN OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD
DECKS SITTING JUST UNDER 2000FT. WHILE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER, THEY
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD FOG. CIGS LIFT TO VFR ONCE AGAIN BY LATE TOMORROW
MORNING, WITH 20 KNOT WIND GUSTS RETURNING BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
CADY
MARINE
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL PREVAIL
TODAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED STRENGTHEN LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND SEAS COULD
RISE TO 5 TO 7 FEET. WATERS WILL ALSO BE CHOPPY OVER THE BAYS.
CAUTION FLAGS AND/OR ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. ELEVATED WATER LEVELS
OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS IS ALSO POSSIBLE, WITH LEVELS
RISING TO AROUND 3.5 FEET ABOVE MLLW DURING HIGH TIDE ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WHICH COULD RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. THERE IS ALSO
THE RISK FOR STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF FACING BEACHES
TUESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AVOID GOING INTO THE WATERS
IF RED FLAGS ARE PRESENT ALONG THE BEACHES.
WINDS WILL RELAX AND SEAS SUBSIDE DURING THE SECOND PART OF THE WORK
WEEK. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WATERS CAN BE EXPECTED
MID WEEK, INCREASING DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
COTTO
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 70 87 70 87 / 0 0 0 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 71 85 72 85 / 0 0 0 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 75 82 75 83 / 0 0 0 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
SHORT TERM...CADY
LONG TERM....COTTO (24)
AVIATION...CADY
MARINE...COTTO (24)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page